Its hard to say that definitively having not had the team at full strength. Had we had Bogey (or even Conley for games 1 and 2) we may very well be looking at a WCF trip. Not sure everyone's going so hard at Conley for our problems then...
There's a fair amount of truth to what you're saying. For instance, we were well within the margin of error for what the outcome of the series was. 2 inches on a Conley shot and we go to the second round. Not unreasonable to think we wouldn't have a shot at winning. That's the challenge with how we evaluate these issues is that we typically look at outcomes as being some kind of fate or destiny, when there's typically a general range of possibilities of any given outcome and us winning was a good chance there with it, but because the outcome was bad we make different assumptions about what we did to have that outcome.
I guess a better way to put this is to say that you want to take good shots, and if you miss a good shot, that's fine because it was a good shot. Or if you make a bad shot, it's still a bad shot. But the outcomes are a lot of times just like the outcomes on taking shots -- not always representative on whether or not what you did was reasonable. Sometimes you're just having to play the numbers. So, in this instance, what's our assessment of our team had Conley's shot fallen? Or if we kept up some momentum for 2-3 more minutes at the end of the third in game 5? Neither of those are outside the realm of possibility. But because it didn't unfold that way (and not because it was some kind of fate), everyone is now talking about how great Jokic is. What would that discussion be had they not had a good couple minute stretch that allowed them to pull back in game 5? Another way of saying this is if you have someone who texts while they drive, they don't pay attention and nearly miss someone on the sidewalk. The good news is that they didn't kill someone and ruin their own life. But the fact that they barely missed and didn't kill someone isn't really reassuring. Whether they did or didn't hit someone doesn't change ultimately how irresponsible they are and the only difference was a few inches and the fact that there wasn't a big outcome -- otherwise it was the same scenario. So while Jokic is being praised, them also getting bumped in game 5 was a very close call, much like the person who missed the pedestrian by a few inches. The fact that Jokic didn't get bounced in the first round isn't because of some kind of magic fate that willed it so (he certainly played very well to keep them alive, but there's also a high degree of chance that made that happen, too). And, likewise, we'd be looking at our team and Conley a lot differently now if we were headed to the WCF, even though fundamentally there would be nothing different between our team in the WCF and our team getting bounced in the first round, aside from a small amount of chance.
That said, I've seen enough that our potential above is in spite of Conley, not because of Conley. I think we'd get a lot more traction and a lot more bang for our buck if we had someone like OPJ. That doesn't mean that Conley is a bad player, it just means that what we need and what he provides don't necessarily align for the best value.