Trade Rumors Involving the Jazz

[One Brow]

Yeah, all those years we contended built around ole Mark Eaton.....

That was ki8nd of a joke, in that Eaton certainly wasn't the central figure.

However, if you want an answer to "If you can show me an offensively limited center over 30 years old worth $40 million in the history of the league", you first need to answer "If you can show me an offensively limited center under 30 years old worth $40 million in the history of the league". If we don't have a list of the latter to look from, why should we expect the former? If Gobert is truly singular, then you can't predict how he will age.

How do yall not see it?

We saw it. We just explain it differently. When Gobert is actively guarding anyone, of any size, in the league he holds down their shooting percentage. No one is better than he in that.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

Brian Windhorst reporting that the Raptors could make Pascal Siakam available for trade. I could see a three-team deal where Raptors get Rudy, Blazers get Siakam, and Jazz get Portland's lotto pick, plus a pick from Toronto.

 

[NUMBERICA]

View: https://youtu.be/XS-h_8FucHM

Precisely.

 

[NUMBERICA]

Zeroing in on a single player, who you have a maximum of 14% chance of getting, when the alternative is the same opportunity a year later is not the most compelling argument.

Tanking now versus later does not give you more or less opportunities, so that last point is completely moot.

If Wembanyama is truly a generational talent then there is a 0% chance you can tank for him in 2024.

 

[KqWIN]

My favorite part of this particular argument is where you put all these self imposed "deadlines" that I never have... I have literally said the most important thing is getting the best deal for both Donovan and Rudy. Like I am somehow limiting the value we will get by forcing it now. If the return is not there then pass. I just think it should be an open opportunity at this point... you increase the chances of getting the best offer if you are open for business. That doesn't just mean you'd do it for a "godfather offer". That means you are open for a solid value pay. Say my house is worth a million dollars and someone says they would make me a good offer and I reply with "$2M or go **** yourself". That ain't gonna work... but if can get an offer of 1.2-1.3M then its likely better to sell the house... especially if I plan on moving in 12 months. Of course if they come in with $800k I will just wait the year. I think we could get the slightly better offer now if we wanted and having better odds in a draft with a massive prospect is a nice cherry on the top.

The strength of the 2023 draft at the top is regarded as better than the 2022 draft but I haven't done a deep dive. Wemby may be more along the lines of AD as a prospect and not Luka. But Luka went 3rd and a few teams passed on him (I thought it was complete nonsense). Not every draft has the crown jewel and in drafts that do you can find other stuff in the top 4 that slides further than it would normally... like Mobley would be the consensus number 1 in the 2022 draft.

Also it is 14% for the bottom 3... not just the worst. #4 has a 12.5% chance... so lets say its a 10%ish chance.

I don't see a ton of tank "competition" as Kings are going to try... its really just Houston and OKC (who will have to bench guys to be in the bottom 4). So executing a tank shouldn't be difficult...

You can wait the market out and sell Donovan later if you want. But you lose runway and markets can shift. Right now I don't see much on the market for stars... Its a ****** free agent market. Inventory is low so you might get that premium that makes it worth it.

I mean....we're literally talking about tanking next year. Is it not fair to assume that this would require trading Donovan? That's what we're talking about here. If you want to tank now, you've got to trade Donovan. Wemby wouldn't factor much if at all into my decision to trade Don. For example, there's not a deal that I would take with Wemby in the draft that I wouldn't take without him in the draft and vice versa. I'm not accusing you of wanting to take a bad deal just so we can tank. I'm just saying that Wemby being in the next draft does not carry as much weight to me. There's just too much variability there for that to give me real consideration. If this was Luka and not Wemby, who was a million times better at the same age, I would be even more cautious of my own bias and not let the excitement of a single prospect carry too much decision making. Getting too excited about a specific player, especially when you don't even have him, is a misjudgment that I'm cautious of.

Unrelated side note.....I'm on the verge of making myself look like an idiot and almost ready to call Wemby the greatest bait prospect I've seen. The idea of him is so great....his production on the other hand If he was in this draft, for example, I'd be sweating taking him #1.

 

[KqWIN]

If Wembanyama is truly a generational talent then there is a 0% chance you can tank for him in 2024.

The if, on top of the other ifs, is why I wouldn't let it affect my decision making. I wouldn't take a deal because Wemby is in the draft that I wouldn't take if he wasn't.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

View: https://twitter.com/Mike_Schmitz/status/1522963610917502978



Here is maybe the main reason to trade Donovan now vs. a year from now... a 14% chance at this guy. Say you swipe an unprotected pick from the Knicks or some other team for Rudy and Donovan and it gives you a few more percentage chances at it.

To win at the highest levels you need top 5 or top 10 players. Those players are almost always found at the top of the draft. Give yourself as many chances as you can to getting one of those guys.

I'm in.

 

[campaignist]

If you can show me an offensively limited center over 30 years old worth $40 million in the history of the league, and I'll show you some oceanfront property in Kansas.

Adjusting for inflation, Mutumbo and Bill Russell

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I probably should have phrased it different.... Wemby is not the main reason to do it now... I think it is a really nice potential benefit. Going from the 14th pick in 2023 to a top 4 pick is a nice addition when there is a generational talent in the draft.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

I

I probably should have phrased it different.... Wemby is not the main reason to do it now... I think it is a really nice potential benefit. Going from the 14th pick in 2023 to a top 4 pick is a nice addition when there is a generational talent in the draft.

Plus you got the Boozer twins in the next draft.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

New York Knicks podcast.


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5KamJy7NWRM

Wow, Knicks fans are smarter than I thought. Even they know trading for Donovan isnt a smart idea.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I mean....we're literally talking about tanking next year. Is it not fair to assume that this would require trading Donovan? That's what we're talking about here. If you want to tank now, you've got to trade Donovan. Wemby wouldn't factor much if at all into my decision to trade Don. For example, there's not a deal that I would take with Wemby in the draft that I wouldn't take without him in the draft and vice versa. I'm not accusing you of wanting to take a bad deal just so we can tank. I'm just saying that Wemby being in the next draft does not carry as much weight to me. There's just too much variability there for that to give me real consideration. If this was Luka and not Wemby, who was a million times better at the same age, I would be even more cautious of my own bias and not let the excitement of a single prospect carry too much decision making. Getting too excited about a specific player, especially when you don't even have him, is a misjudgment that I'm cautious of.

Unrelated side note.....I'm on the verge of making myself look like an idiot and almost ready to call Wemby the greatest bait prospect I've seen. The idea of him is so great....his production on the other hand If he was in this draft, for example, I'd be sweating taking him #1.

Yes but I'm not doing it if the return isn't there. Just like the house example... if the offers are 80% of value then I'll wait. It is less just about Wemby and more of next year's draft is good and projects to have at least one guy who would be a consensus #1 pick.

Take his projection with a small grain of salt as he is a 17-18 year old playing against men. Injury is really the only concerning thing for me. He doesn't have the obvious two time mvp like Luka does but he has a ceiling that is just insane. I also trust Schmitz.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Welp, the Jazz held onto Mitchell for a year too long.

Everyone knows he's just a borderline all-star who doesnt play D.

It's pretty clear the Jazz are just going to hold onto him because no one is going to offer a Godfather package.

 

[Elizah Huge]

Let’s break down the teams/players that have won the Finals the last decade.

Bucks - Giannis
Lakers - LeBron/AD
Raptors - Kawhi
Warriors - KD/Steph
Cavs - LeBron/Kyrie
Warriors - Steph
Spurs - Duncan/Kawhi
Heat - LeBron/Wade

Top-5 and top-10 players on all of these teams. Great players win.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Wow, Knicks fans are smarter than I thought. Even they know trading for Donovan isnt a smart idea.

Pretty interesting. They are much more patient and measured than I think Knicks management might be.

Basically they are saying to wait until 2025 FA class... that seems waaaaaayyyy too patient for NY.

They did mention that they'd have to pay a premium because he has 3 years left instead of 2... which seems obvious to me but some disagree. The last point is kinda the issue for NY... if Donovan is ready to leave and we move him somewhere else then who are they waiting for and they will have likely missed their window. I think the mega package with all the unprotected picks I laid out is not something they would offer... I think a real package hinges on them getting a top 4 pick so they could give that up with 1 other pick and the Dallas pick... plus like Toppin and Quickley (and cap fodder).

The other thing they hit on is getting Donovan in the door now may open up the possibility to get the second star.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Let’s break down the teams/players that have won the Finals the last decade.

Bucks - Giannis
Lakers - LeBron/AD
Raptors - Kawhi
Warriors - KD/Steph
Cavs - LeBron/Kyrie
Warriors - Steph
Spurs - Duncan/Kawhi
Heat - LeBron/Wade

Top-5 and top-10 players on all of these teams. Great players win.

And two of those guys were drafted outside the top 10... so you really need to give yourself a chance to get guys drafted early in the lotto... since we are not a FA destination that only comes through the draft.

Championship is not the only goal... I think the real goal to pursue is being a team that can get to the conference finals and give yourself a shot at the title... so it opens up the list a bit... but yeah I'm ready to get as much prime draft capital as possible and roll into a rebuild.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Pretty interesting. They are much more patient and measured than I think Knicks management might be.

Basically they are saying to wait until 2025 FA class... that seems waaaaaayyyy too patient for NY.

They did mention that they'd have to pay a premium because he has 3 years left instead of 2... which seems obvious to me but some disagree. The last point is kinda the issue for NY... if Donovan is ready to leave and we move him somewhere else then who are they waiting for and they will have likely missed their window. I think the mega package with all the unprotected picks I laid out is not something they would offer... I think a real package hinges on them getting a top 4 pick so they could give that up with 1 other pick and the Dallas pick... plus like Toppin and Quickley (and cap fodder).

The other thing they hit on is getting Donovan in the door now may open up the possibility to get the second star.

How can they even free up cap-room?

Like, can they get max room for 2023 free agency if they trade for Mitchell now? Are there even players in 2023 that are max worthy?

 

[KqWIN]

Yes but I'm not doing it if the return isn't there. Just like the house example... if the offers are 80% of value then I'll wait. It is less just about Wemby and more of next year's draft is good and projects to have at least one guy who would be a consensus #1 pick.

Take his projection with a small grain of salt as he is a 17-18 year old playing against men. Injury is really the only concerning thing for me. He doesn't have the obvious two time mvp like Luka does but he has a ceiling that is just insane. I also trust Schmitz.

I'm very skeptical of him. Not that he isn't a great prospect, but the "generational" tag really has me wondering. He's kinda sucked in every competition during his career. Yeah he's been a boy playing against men, but like you said Luka was MVP of Euroleague when he was 18. That's generational. Wemby shot 35% from the field in the Euroleague at the same age. All the talk is about how unique he is, but barely any talk about how good he is because it hasn't been good. He's been bad as a pro (offensively), understandable but not necessarily a good thing either. He notably had a good game against USA in the u19 championships (I watched that game live), but he also sucked the rest of that tournament. He's definitely not Luka, and to me he's not Zion, Davis, or Towns either as a prospect. I'm gonna wait and see if he actually plays well next year to anoint him.

But back to the OG convo, even if you're 100% sure about him as generational, I hope that wouldn't carry too much weight in the decision making on Don.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Welp, the Jazz held onto Mitchell for a year too long.

Everyone knows he's just a borderline all-star who doesnt play D.

It's pretty clear the Jazz are just going to hold onto him because no one is going to offer a Godfather package.

I think a Godfather package is a little unreasonable... I think you go for a really good package. Those will be out there... maybe not with the Knicks but I really feel like they would still give up a ton of assets to get him.

Detroit with their pick and Grant (plus maybe another pick?) I could see being a destination as well. Not sure how long a leash Weaver has there. San Antonio could be a solid trade partner... I wouldn't settle for the Heat poo poo platter but that will be there later if they want it.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I'm very skeptical of him. Not that he isn't a great prospect, but the "generational" tag really has me wondering. He's kinda sucked in every competition during his career. Yeah he's been a boy playing against men, but like you said Luka was MVP of Euroleague when he was 18. That's generational. Wemby shot 35% from the field in the Euroleague at the same age. All the talk is about how unique he is, but barely any talk about how good he is because it hasn't been good. He's been bad as a pro (offensively), understandable but not necessarily a good thing either. He notably had a good game against USA in the u19 championships (I watched that game live), but he also sucked the rest of that tournament. He's definitely not Luka, and to me he's not Zion, Davis, or Towns either as a prospect. I'm gonna wait and see if he actually plays well next year to anoint him.

But back to the OG convo, even if you're 100% sure about him as generational, I hope that wouldn't carry too much weight in the decision making on Don.

Not saying I would pitch the owner on we will get this kid but it would weigh in. Especially because he is a foreign born player. I think Utah will have a hard time retaining high ranking US players in part because of the AAU environment. I think they are more likely to stay in a smaller market... could be totally wrong but heard someone pitch the idea and it seems consistent with what we have seen thus far.