Trade Rumors Involving the Jazz

[Bodhi]

According to a lot of advanced stats he's still a positive impact player.

If you think about it that Simmons is only an additional year past KO/Conley, you can say your paying 40 million for a far reaching 1st rounder that will have exponential value to the Mavs in a scenario where you try to get Luka after Kyrie blows up in their face.

I think its massive risk/reward. Its not even his current play, its his high potential to be a negative cultural impact on a young team.

I wouldnt write it off before a thought but but i'd lean heavily to a "no" right now.

 

[KqWIN]

I disagree, I think there's a pretty significant drop off from Conley to Sexton as the primary ball handler.

Conley: 120.6 ORtg on court / 115.0 ORtg off court // 65.7% AST% on court | 57.1% AST% off court
Sexton: 118.8 ORtg on court / 117.0 ORtg off court // 58.1% AST% on court | 62.9% AST% off court

These numbers mean very little because they are playing with different players, and it also does not include defense. When Sexton was the starter, the starting lineup played much better than they did with Conley. It's a SSS, but it was not close. They are opposite players with different strengths. There's not much evidence to say that we are better with on or the other.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

I would but the nets wouldn't.

Listening to Lowe and Windhorst makes me think they would

 

[YoungJefe]

Do you have the numbers for when Sexton was starting in his place? That is the comparison that matters. I think Lauri missed a couple of those games as well though.

He averaged 4.9 assists in the 10 games he started.

 

[sip]

On the season Conley is averaging 7.6 assists, Sexton has never averaged more than 4.4 in a season. I like him but he's not a PG and that's the main reason Cleveland moved on.

You have to take into account the role that each player plays. During Conleys best years he was only averaging about 6 assists a game. Also those cavs teams had almost no talent so there weren't exactly a lot of shot makers for Sexton to create for. This year when he started at pg he played really well and averaged around 6 assists a game.

 

[Elizah Huge]

He averaged 4.9 assists in the 10 games he started.

17.5 PPG

 

[Elizah Huge]

It’s wild to me that people are still underrating Sexton. He’s in literally almost all of our best 3-man and 4-man lineups.

 

[YoungJefe]

You have to take into account the role that each player plays. During Conleys best years he was only averaging about 6 assists a game. Also those cavs teams had almost no talent so there weren't exactly a lot of shot makers for Sexton to create for. This year when he started at pg he played really well and averaged around 6 assists a game.

I personally just don't think he's a primary ball handler we have a multi season sample size of it not working in Cleveland. Maybe he has grown as a player since then, I still think there would be a pretty significant drop off.

 

[HermanG]

According to a lot of advanced stats he's still a positive impact player.

If you think about it that Simmons is only an additional year past KO/Conley, you can say your paying 40 million for a far reaching 1st rounder that will have exponential value to the Mavs in a scenario where you try to get Luka after Kyrie blows up in their face.

He is good. Not 36M good, but very good defense and decent rebounding and playmaking.

I mean he is a 27 minute starter in a top tier team.

 

[KqWIN]

Does that stat account for who is on the floor with each player too. Im guessing that conley plays pretty much all of his minutes with our best player on the court with him and that might help conleys numbers.


Sent from my iPad using JazzFanz mobile app

IMO, the two best data approaches we have are:

1) The difference in starting lineup performance with Sexton/Conley. This is massively in Sexton's favor, but it is a SSS so it's not perfect. In 303 minutes, the initial Jazz starting lineup was -1.72 per100 in 303 minutes. With Sexton and the same lineup, they were +14.5 per100 in 133 minutes

2) A pure on/off metric that adjust for teammate an opponent. These are noisy, but a good proxy for how a team performs plays relative to the teammates and opponents they share the floor with.

RAPTOR on/off:
Conley -0.6
Sexton -0.4

RAPM:
Conley +0.31
Sexton +0.01

There is no "perfect" way to do this. My take on this is that there really is not much of a drop off, with more evidence to say that there is an increase, when Sexton replaces Conley despite them being drastically different types of players. Should be noted that I don't think either player is that amazing and probably not starter level, which the numbers would echo as well.

 

[YoungJefe]

He is good. Not 36M good, but very good defense and decent rebounding and playmaking.

I mean he is a 27 minute starter in a top tier team.

He's also a head case and similar to Rudy in that you have to use very specific lineups around him for it to work because he's so limited offensively.

 

[sip]

I think its massive risk/reward. Its not even his current play, its his high potential to be a negative cultural impact on a young team.

I wouldnt write it off before a thought but but i'd lean heavily to a "no" right now.

I think the so called negative culture impact is overblown because he is such a good defensive player. If he didn't play defense then there would be an issue but defense is about effort and I think teammates respect how hard he works on that end of the court because so many players highly paid players in this league don't put in that effort. I still think he can have a Draymond Green type of impact and is well worth the risk for us. I also love the fact that he doesn't take touches away from Lauri and has the ability to create more clean looks for Lauri.

 

[Jingled]

A deal with Vando to the Blazers for 2nd round picks could go down today, Portland has a TPE that they could use to trade for Vanderbilt that expires today.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Just think about when you trade for Luka, being able to give Dallas back its own future pick would be pretty valuable.

 

[sip]

He's also a head case and similar to Rudy in that you have to use very specific lineups around him for it to work because he's so limited offensively.

He is so much more versatile on both ends of the court than Rudy though. He can step out and guard elite perimeter players and offensively he can at least attack the basket off the dribble and is a really good passer. Right now you probably wouldn't want to give a bunch of minutes with Kessler but as the backup 5 paired with Lauri and shooters he would be extremely effective.

 

[Bodhi]

I think the so called negative culture impact is overblown because he is such a good defensive player. If he didn't play defense then there would be an issue but defense is about effort and I think teammates respect how hard he works on that end of the court because so many players highly paid players in this league don't put in that effort. I still think he can have a Draymond Green type of impact and is well worth the risk for us. I also love the fact that he doesn't take touches away from Lauri and has the ability to create more clean looks for Lauri.

Remember when he played center against us last year or last? Dude played down hill and lit us up.

If you can get him back to that player, its a no brainer.

 

[HermanG]

He's also a head case and similar to Rudy in that you have to use very specific lineups around him for it to work because he's so limited offensively.

Both true.

 

[YoungJefe]

I think the so called negative culture impact is overblown because he is such a good defensive player. If he didn't play defense then there would be an issue but defense is about effort and I think teammates respect how hard he works on that end of the court because so many players highly paid players in this league don't put in that effort. I still think he can have a Draymond Green type of impact and is well worth the risk for us. I also love the fact that he doesn't take touches away from Lauri and has the ability to create more clean looks for Lauri.

I don't think it's that overblown personally, he had issues with all of his teammates in Philly and now they're saying he's having issues in Brooklyn as well. Defense is about effort but he's an elite defender because he's basically prime LeBron, dude is a freak. The main difference between him and Draymond is that Draymond plays with grit, fire, and emotion. He has intangibles that you cannot teach and does all of the little things. Ben is softer than charmin and you literally couldn't play him with Kessler for extended minutes.

 

[sip]

A deal with Vando to the Blazers for 2nd round picks could go down today, Portland has a TPE that they could use to trade for Vanderbilt that expires today.

Trading Vando for 2nd rd picks and a TPE makes zero sense. If we aren't getting a late 1st then I don't see the point.

 

[YoungJefe]

He is so much more versatile on both ends of the court than Rudy though. He can step out and guard elite perimeter players and offensively he can at least attack the basket off the dribble and is a really good passer. Right now you probably wouldn't want to give a bunch of minutes with Kessler but as the backup 5 paired with Lauri and shooters he would be extremely effective.

$40M for a backup center is pretty expensive.