Tre Johnson Will Likely be The 5th Pick

[SoberasHotRod]

I feel like Tre is being scouted wrong. Hes a better defender than people think, he’s also a really good passer and super skilled. And according to combine numbers quite a bit more athletic than people realize.

What are you basing your analysis off of? It kind of feels like you are saying stuff based off of highlights and hopes and wishes.

 

[Thee Jazz Fan]

What are you basing your analysis off of? It kind of feels like you are saying stuff based off of highlights and hopes and wishes.

I watched a full game yesterday he was fine defensively and stayed in front of his guy all night.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

I watched a full game yesterday he was fine defensively and stayed in front of his guy all night.

Honestly that's really good to hear. What game was it, and who was he specifically guarding in the game?

Of the 6 or 7 games I watched, he was pretty good defensively in one of them (hopefully not the same one you are referring to) and one of the worst college defender I've ever seen in the other games.

But, also, LOL at saying he is being scouted wrong based off of one game when the guys putting together the scouting reports watch every game, going back to high school.

 

[seattlejazzfan]

But this is true for pretty much every college player. The spacing is bad for everyone, Tre is not a unique case. Fears played against the same level of competition on a team that was also not that good. What does that make him at the next level if the expectation is that it goes up because of poor spacing in college? What about a guy like CMB who was on an actual horrific team?

Reality is that this stuff typically trends the other direction. FTr and rim rate doesn't usually go up in the pros despite the increased spacing. The guys who turned into pros who get to the FT line and rim were able to do it in college. When it does happen, it's usually because a player was limited in his college role and not because he was tasked with doing too much.

it's not true at the same level. start with the SEC alone (to your credit, you brought up two SEC examples - though that's where the apples to apples comparison ends) - it has the best teams and best athletes. and while spacing in general is bad in college, it is worse on a team like texas that relied so heavily on the guy in question. 20 ppg and the next highest scorer was at 12 ppg.

fears averaged 17 ppg and he had a teammate that averaged 16 ppg. defenses couldn't just key on him the way texas opponents had to with Tre. also, getting into the paint is Fears calling card - he shot 28% from three - if he doesn't beat people off the bounce we're not even talking about him right now - it's his greatest strength. apples and oranges. nobody is saying Tre is elite at beating people and getting to the rim, rather i'm offering reasons why some might be able to reconcile the idea that he has a good first step, but had trouble getting by people and into the lane.

CMB is a 3/4 who weights 250 lbs, yeah, his rim attempts are going to look different than that of a shooter. bottom line, in your answers, we're seeing you don't really want to reconcile those two things - you are looking for reasons and examples why it CAN'T be reconciled rather than accepting reasons why it perhaps can be. you brought up a fellow SEC guard whose calling card his ability to get in the lane and a 250 lb bruiser - and that's fine. i've given you reasons it can be reconciled - you don't have to agree but those reasons are there.

bottom line is that while all these guys are college basketball players, each situation, each team, each offense, each player, is unique. nuance matters. but if you don't want to see it, you won't. and i can't help you.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

FWIW I looked this up and it's a good illustration of Tre Johnson not being the player type I like in that if he isn't shooting well he doesn't bring much else to the court:

Per Tankathon, of the guard prospects in their top 30, Tre Johnson has the second lowest rebounds per 36, second lowest assist per 36, and third lowest stocks per 36.

 

[NAOS_pt2]

FWIW I looked this up and it's a good illustration of Tre Johnson not being the player type I like in that if he isn't shooting well he doesn't bring much else to the court:

Per Tankathon, of the guard prospects in their top 30, Tre Johnson has the second lowest rebounds per 36, second lowest assist per 36, and third lowest stocks per 36.

Nothing quite like tanking for the next iteration of Keyonte George.

 

[fishonjazz]

But this is true for pretty much every college player.

IDK, I feel like the majority of college players dont play in the SEC since there are more non SEC college programs than SEC ones. Since that was one of Seattle's points in the discussion I think that the statement quoted is incorrect.

 

[KqWIN]

it's not true at the same level. start with the SEC alone (to your credit, you brought up two SEC examples - though that's where the apples to apples comparison ends) - it has the best teams and best athletes. and while spacing in general is bad in college, it is worse on a team like texas that relied so heavily on the guy in question. 20 ppg and the next highest scorer was at 12 ppg.

fears averaged 17 ppg and he had a teammate that averaged 16 ppg. defenses couldn't just key on him the way texas opponents had to with Tre. also, getting into the paint is Fears calling card - he shot 28% from three - if he doesn't beat people off the bounce we're not even talking about him right now - it's his greatest strength. apples and oranges. nobody is saying Tre is elite at beating people and getting to the rim, rather i'm offering reasons why some might be able to reconcile the idea that he has a good first step, but had trouble getting by people and into the lane.

CMB is a 3/4 who weights 250 lbs, yeah, his rim attempts are going to look different than that of a shooter. bottom line, in your answers, we're seeing you don't really want to reconcile those two things - you are looking for reasons and examples why it CAN'T be reconciled rather than accepting reasons why it perhaps can be. you brought up a fellow SEC guard whose calling card his ability to get in the lane and a 250 lb bruiser - and that's fine. i've given you reasons it can be reconciled - you don't have to agree but those reasons are there.

bottom line is that while all these guys are college basketball players, each situation, each team, each offense, each player, is unique. nuance matters. but if you don't want to see it, you won't. and i can't help you.

Well, I have a lot of disagreements with how you're looking at these two examples. I feel like a lot of those points are either irrelevant or not consequential, but there's no point in agonizing over those differences. I don't think you should need this perfect intersection of several different elements for this explanation to apply. The larger point is the one that should be addressed which is: Does improved spacing and conditions at the NBA level reliably unlock this kind of rim pressure? Historically, that hasn’t been the case. This is true across the spectrum whether it be guys who reliably applied rim pressure or guys that do not. Guys who didn't apply rim pressure still don't do that when they get to the NBA, and the guys that did apply pressure still do but less than they did in college. Despite all the things that make it difficult to attack the rim in college, it's not easier to do these things at the pro level.

That doesn’t mean it’s impossible. But “nuance” only goes so far if we can’t point to real outcomes. I’m open to being convinced, but the burden of proof is on showing this kind of leap actually happens. Examples of guys who couldn’t pressure the rim in college but suddenly did in the NBA are rare, and I haven’t seen many that really fit Tre’s profile.

 

[KqWIN]

IDK, I feel like the majority of college players dont play in the SEC since there are more non SEC college programs than SEC ones. Since that was one of Seattle's points in the discussion I think that the statement quoted is incorrect.

Bad spacing and playing difficult competition is not something that only applies to the SEC. And more or less doesn't change the larger point that it is harder to do these things in the NBA. I don't think there is an inflection point or very specific set of conditions needs to be met in order to make this explanation valid. What it comes down to is it is easier in the NBA or is it not?

The SEC is hard, but the NBA is even more difficult.

 

[Tremendous Upside]

Yeah, there's tons of guys who suffered because their teams had awful spacing. Then there's guys like (insert name of any Duke player), who basically had NBA spacing at their disposal.

I really wonder how Flagg would have looked in Baylor's undersized clogged toiled offense.

 

[Bodhi]

Bad spacing and playing difficult competition is not something that only applies to the SEC. And more or less doesn't change the larger point that it is harder to do these things in the NBA. I don't think there is an inflection point or very specific set of conditions needs to be met in order to make this explanation valid. What it comes down to is it is easier in the NBA or is it not?

The SEC is hard, but the NBA is even more difficult.

I think the narrative that the SEC was so hard this year was driven by the SEC and SEC media rights holders…..

 

[KqWIN]

I think the narrative that the SEC was so hard this year was driven by the SEC and SEC media rights holders…..

I think it was both really good and pushed narrative wise. I'm not going to massively change the way I evaluate for just one conference and especially not for just one player in that conference. SEC players didn't suddenly get trained by Ra's al Ghul in the League of Shadows.