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Tre Johnson Will Likely be The 5th Pick

Getting to the line at a low rate isn’t mystifying. It’s a skill/talent like most things and more times than not it’s not just a matter of deciding to attack. Tre doesn’t have that skill/talent, and unfortunately it’s something that typically drops in the NBA and does so in a significant way. Same goes for the rim rate. The NBA is a different game and they shoot way less FT’s and shots at the rim. If he was able to maintain his current rates, that would be a significant development in his personal gain but still represent a somewhat difficult shot distribution.

But he can still be a great offensive player with a tough shot distribution. You see many examples of this in the league. You just don’t see them at the very top.
 
Tre is one of the best shooting prospects in NBA history whereas Keyonte's jumper is just fine to good. And Tre has real SG size whereas Keyonte is undersized as a SG.

Tre does have the same issues Keyonte has in being completely unable to create open looks and being total ******* at defense though.

They... Do not have the tools you would like to see... But Keyonte is a 6th man while Tre has legitimate starting potential.

What’s his comp then? A poor man’s Reggie Miller?
 
A .265 (and .295 in conference) is not a low FTR. It's not a great FTR, but it's not what some people are here making it out to be.
 
Don’t think there’s really such thing as having too many prospects when you’re tanking.
The logical implication of this is that you'd be ok with all 13 roster spots being prospects. Do you really believe that?

I can easily imagine several reasons why a team may to limit its number of prospects. Here are just a few:

1. Tanking teams want their prospects to actually improve. Having 8-10 raw prospects competing for minutes may mean that none get consistent enough playing time to develop properly. Arguably, it's better to focus development resources on a smaller number of higher-potential players.

2. Young players need veteran mentors to learn NBA professionalism, work habits, and basketball IQ. A roster of prospects can create bad habits and poor decision-making that's hard to unlearn. Experienced players can mentor youngsters while still being inefficient enough to lose games.

3. With too many prospects getting inconsistent minutes, it becomes difficult to properly evaluate who has real potential versus who's just a roster spot. Teams need clear data to make future roster decisions.

4. Tanking teams need to think about when they'll transition to competitiveness. They don't want to be locked into too many mediocre players when that time comes.

I'd further bet that the Jazz FO feel similarly, i.e., they have some idea of how many prospects they want to have on contract, even if not a definitive number, at least some kind of subjective range.
 
The logical implication of this is that you'd be ok with all 13 roster spots being prospects. Do you really believe that?

I can easily imagine several reasons why a team may to limit its number of prospects. Here are just a few:

1. Tanking teams want their prospects to actually improve. Having 8-10 raw prospects competing for minutes may mean that none get consistent enough playing time to develop properly. Arguably, it's better to focus development resources on a smaller number of higher-potential players.

2. Young players need veteran mentors to learn NBA professionalism, work habits, and basketball IQ. A roster of prospects can create bad habits and poor decision-making that's hard to unlearn. Experienced players can mentor youngsters while still being inefficient enough to lose games.

3. With too many prospects getting inconsistent minutes, it becomes difficult to properly evaluate who has real potential versus who's just a roster spot. Teams need clear data to make future roster decisions.

4. Tanking teams need to think about when they'll transition to competitiveness. They don't want to be locked into too many mediocre players when that time comes.

I'd further bet that the Jazz FO feel similarly, i.e., they have some idea of how many prospects they want to have on contract, even if not a definitive number, at least some kind of subjective range.

Sure, perhaps I was being hyperbolic. There is some value to having a veteran in the locker room, but if you're tanking I think you've pretty much accepted that you will not be playing in a realistic way. I see value to getting guys in a real situation, but this situation can't really exist for a tanking team. If the Jazz valued a real winning situation to develop their prospects, they wouldn't be intentionally sitting their vets out. It's very clear what the priorities are. They value the losing and the increased playing time for prospects. And this is why you have room for so many prospects. You do not get more minutes because you have more vets. If you were a non tanking team with a lot of vets, that's where you can run into issues with not having enough playing time.....but the tanking situation makes it hard to not have enough playing time. It's all you really have.

I also really can't understand why having more prospects mean you will be locked into any players and specifically mediocre ones. You can cut bait on prospects very quickly.

BTW, if you count the two way guys you could argue that the Jazz did have 13 prospects on the team to end the season. I don't think it really would have changed much had the Jazz had 1-2 more prospects instead of 1-2 of the remaining vets. Furthermore, I'm not upset that we let Eubanks and Mills go. I don't mind that they were there in the first place, but I also I didn't mind that they were gone. I don't see any issue with having two more rookies on this team next season if we are tanking again (spoiler we are).
 
Sure, perhaps I was being hyperbolic. There is some value to having a veteran in the locker room, but if you're tanking I think you've pretty much accepted that you will not be playing in a realistic way. I see value to getting guys in a real situation, but this situation can't really exist for a tanking team. If the Jazz valued a real winning situation to develop their prospects, they wouldn't be intentionally sitting their vets out. It's very clear what the priorities are. They value the losing and the increased playing time for prospects. And this is why you have room for so many prospects. You do not get more minutes because you have more vets. If you were a non tanking team with a lot of vets, that's where you can run into issues with not having enough playing time.....but the tanking situation makes it hard to not have enough playing time. It's all you really have.

I also really can't understand why having more prospects mean you will be locked into any players and specifically mediocre ones. You can cut bait on prospects very quickly.

BTW, if you count the two way guys you could argue that the Jazz did have 13 prospects on the team to end the season. I don't think it really would have changed much had the Jazz had 1-2 more prospects instead of 1-2 of the remaining vets. Furthermore, I'm not upset that we let Eubanks and Mills go. I don't mind that they were there in the first place, but I also I didn't mind that they were gone. I don't see any issue with having two more rookies on this team next season if we are tanking again (spoiler we are).

Well, hyperbole is what we all do here.

For me, the question is how to optimally balance player development with being able to pivot back to competitiveness in a reasonable period of time. I'm not convinced fielding a team largely of prospects is the best way to do this, although arguably Houston was able to pivot reasonably quickly from a prospect-laden team to a competitive one via signing vets. These signings (e.g., Brooks and Van Vleet) were much criticized at the time by blog boys and podcasters who thought Houston should double/triple down on the tank. But, it's easy for them to feel that way; they are not fans suffering through interminable shiity basketball.

In the end, I'd guess that few FOs agree that there's no such thing as too many prospects, and if asked why, they'd invoke some of the reasons I listed, in addition to others.
 
Well, hyperbole is what we all do here.

For me, the question is how to optimally balance player development with being able to pivot back to competitiveness in a reasonable period of time. I'm not convinced fielding a team largely of prospects is the best way to do this, although arguably Houston was able to pivot reasonably quickly from a prospect-laden team to a competitive one via signing vets. These signings (e.g., Brooks and Van Vleet) were much criticized at the time by blog boys and podcasters who thought Houston should double/triple down on the tank. But, it's easy for them to feel that way; they are not fans suffering through interminable shiity basketball.

In the end, I'd guess that few FOs agree that there's no such thing as too many prospects, and if asked why, they'd invoke some of the reasons I listed, in addition to others.

IMO, the amount of prospects you can have on the roster is closely tied to the amount you want to tank. And that shouldn't be a surprise. If you aren't trying to win, that will mean more playing time. The opposite of "too many prospects" is "you must have X amount of vets". What number would that be, and do they have to be a specific kind of vet? I see the value that a Mills/Eubanks type, but is that really a requirement? If so why did the Jazz get rid of them so easily? And if we're talking about vets who can actually play, how many of those do we need? We saw very clearly what happens to these guys. We sit them on purpose. I don't think it's really a requirement to have vets that could play but you sit anyways. Quite frankly, I think the bigger issue with having 13 prospects is having 13 prospects worthwhile.

And as far as the appeal to authority of what FO's agree on, you could be right. But that doesn't always describe their behavior. It definitely would not describe the behavior of our current FO. If I'm being honest, I think most tanking teams prioritize having more bites at the apple instead of focusing on a smaller subset of prospects. Too many prospects is usually a thing for the teams who aren't tanking and have limited playing time resources. I think the Jazz are right to see their PT as a resource and give a very high number of prospects a chance. I think the Thunder are also really happy they did the same when they were tanking. They had a much higher % of their minutes going to prospects. That process helped discover and develop some really nice players that might have missed the cut if there was a cap on the # of prospects they could have.
 
IMO, the amount of prospects you can have on the roster is closely tied to the amount you want to tank. And that shouldn't be a surprise. If you aren't trying to win, that will mean more playing time. The opposite of "too many prospects" is "you must have X amount of vets". What number would that be, and do they have to be a specific kind of vet? I see the value that a Mills/Eubanks type, but is that really a requirement? If so why did the Jazz get rid of them so easily? And if we're talking about vets who can actually play, how many of those do we need? We saw very clearly what happens to these guys. We sit them on purpose. I don't think it's really a requirement to have vets that could play but you sit anyways. Quite frankly, I think the bigger issue with having 13 prospects is having 13 prospects worthwhile.

And as far as the appeal to authority of what FO's agree on, you could be right. But that doesn't always describe their behavior. It definitely would not describe the behavior of our current FO. If I'm being honest, I think most tanking teams prioritize having more bites at the apple instead of focusing on a smaller subset of prospects. Too many prospects is usually a thing for the teams who aren't tanking and have limited playing time resources. I think the Jazz are right to see their PT as a resource and give a very high number of prospects a chance. I think the Thunder are also really happy they did the same when they were tanking. They had a much higher % of their minutes going to prospects. That process helped discover and develop some really nice players that might have missed the cut if there was a cap on the # of prospects they could have.

I don't have a magic number of vets. To me, it's more the type of vet than the number. Probably a mixture of good locker room vets who don't necessarily play much but who are good, steadying and mentoring influences together with some who can help manage the play on the floor and help keep games sufficiently competitive so that the youngsters aren't pummeled by blowout after blowout and so they can learn how to compete in close games.

I doubt you're going to find 13 worthwhile prospects on the same roster. That's another issue with having so many prospects, i.e., diminishing returns. If you need 13 prospects on your roster to help the FO make decisions, that doesn't speak well for the FO's talent judging acumen.

Well, yes, the Jazz did sit the vets. But you speak as if this is THE model for team rebuilding. If the objective is to maximize lottery odds uber alles, then I suppose this make sense.

Just because the Jazz did it this way (and look how it turned out), doesn't make it the model for other teams. You seem to be extrapolating from this one, reasonably unique case to the whole. This is why I express skepticism that other FOs think like you, not to appeal to authority, but to illustrate that they are likely to think about rebuilding strategy differently than you, suggesting that "more is always better" is likely more the exception than the rule...for a variety of valid reasons.

At the heart of the matter, I am fundamentally skeptical that the best way to develop prospects is to toss them in the deep end and expect them to swim. If the prime directive is to lose, OK fine. But, if there are twin objectives to lose AND develop and teach winning habits, IMHO that is better achieved with a mixture of youth and vets than with youth alone.

We can politely agree to disagree on this matter.
 
I don't have a magic number of vets. To me, it's more the type of vet than the number. Probably a mixture of good locker room vets who don't necessarily play much but who are good, steadying and mentoring influences together with some who can help manage the play on the floor and help keep games sufficiently competitive so that the youngsters aren't pummeled by blowout after blowout and so they can learn how to compete in close games.

I doubt you're going to find 13 worthwhile prospects on the same roster. That's another issue with having so many prospects, i.e., diminishing returns. If you need 13 prospects on your roster to help the FO make decisions, that doesn't speak well for the FO's talent judging acumen.

Well, yes, the Jazz did sit the vets. But you speak as if this is THE model for team rebuilding. If the objective is to maximize lottery odds uber alles, then I suppose this make sense.

Just because the Jazz did it this way (and look how it turned out), doesn't make it the model for other teams. You seem to be extrapolating from this one, reasonably unique case to the whole. This is why I express skepticism that other FOs think like you, not to appeal to authority, but to illustrate that they are likely to think about rebuilding strategy differently than you, suggesting that "more is always better" is likely more the exception than the rule...for a variety of valid reasons.

At the heart of the matter, I am fundamentally skeptical that the best way to develop prospects is to toss them in the deep end and expect them to swim. If the prime directive is to lose, OK fine. But, if there are twin objectives to lose AND develop and teach winning habits, IMHO that is better achieved with a mixture of youth and vets than with youth alone.

We can politely agree to disagree on this matter.

Just FYI, my exact statement was "Don’t think there’s really such thing as having too many prospects when you’re tanking.". So everything about this conversation on my side has been under the premise that we are tanking. This is not a conversation about whether or not tanking is the right way to team build. This is about the premise of having too many prospects given that you've already decided to tank. From my perspective, playing young guys is both a good way to ensure the tank is effective and a good way to utilize the PT made available by tanking.

And I don't think I was extrapolating the Jazz example. I had even given another example FO besides the Jazz, but that's not the basis of my argument. My opinion isn't based on what I think FO's believe in and that's why it's correct. Even if the Thunder and Jazz are the only teams ever in NBA history to do what they did, I would still think it's correct. It's my preferred behavior regardless of whether it's most popular or not. I don't believe in this idea of appealing to authority, but if you're going to do that I think the burden of proof should be on your side. If you really believe FO's think that way, you should provide the evidence of them doing so.

Also,"more is always better" is definitely not the same the thing as "don’t think there’s really such thing as having too many prospects". I disagree with having an arbitrary limit on the number of prospects you can have. I also do not believe that having prospects for the sake of having a higher number of prospects is better. I wouldn't choose the 43rd pick over having Lauri. But I also would not pass on adding a good prospect for a vet if I'm tanking because and it crossed some limit.
 
1.) I think it’s counterproductive to keep vets who clearly raise your floor when you’re tanking. Lauri might be stuck here due to the new contract - I guess we’ll see what happens with that - but guys like Conley, Sexton and Collins are all vets who clearly helped the team win more than they had hoped to. I’m completely fine with consolidating those guys into a single player who impacts winning less (like an injured player) for a short period of time, but can become a mentor and contributor down the line.

2.) Also, most of the time, when you trade a veteran for draft assets, you have to bring one or more back - even if they’re not as talented or capable - due to salary matching. I think it’s entirely reasonable to bring new vets in and let them fill those roles temporarily. Especially when most of your current veteran players are going to have their contracts expire next offseason.

3.) At some point, your prospects have to become your veteran players. If they’re playing and developing good habits, they become the new core of your team.

4.) The Knicks and Pacers have both successfully rebuilt their entire main roster within a 3-4 year period. They used the draft, trades and free agency to do so. I think it’s entirely reasonable to let the Jazz strategy play out and see what they can do once they decide who their core players are moving forward - which in all honestly seems like it will happen next offseason - AFTER they’ve successfully tanked and kept their top 5 (hopefully) pick in 2026.
 
Just FYI, my exact statement was "Don’t think there’s really such thing as having too many prospects when you’re tanking.". So everything about this conversation on my side has been under the premise that we are tanking. This is not a conversation about whether or not tanking is the right way to team build. This is about the premise of having too many prospects given that you've already decided to tank. From my perspective, playing young guys is both a good way to ensure the tank is effective and a good way to utilize the PT made available by tanking.

And I don't think I was extrapolating the Jazz example. I had even given another example FO besides the Jazz, but that's not the basis of my argument. My opinion isn't based on what I think FO's believe in and that's why it's correct. Even if the Thunder and Jazz are the only teams ever in NBA history to do what they did, I would still think it's correct. It's my preferred behavior regardless of whether it's most popular or not. I don't believe in this idea of appealing to authority, but if you're going to do that I think the burden of proof should be on your side. If you really believe FO's think that way, you should provide the evidence of them doing so.

Also,"more is always better" is definitely not the same the thing as "don’t think there’s really such thing as having too many prospects". I disagree with having an arbitrary limit on the number of prospects you can have. I also do not believe that having prospects for the sake of having a higher number of prospects is better. I wouldn't choose the 43rd pick over having Lauri. But I also would not pass on adding a good prospect for a vet if I'm tanking because and it crossed some limit.
I understand that the premise of the discussion is when you're tanking." That was clear from the beginning.

I don't disagree that playing young guys is both a good way to ensure the tank is effective and a good way to utilize the PT made available by tanking. In fact, I agree strongly with it.

I have not advocated for some arbitrary limit on the number of prospects. I don't have strong feelings on the ideal ratio. However, I'm reasonably confident tanking FOs use some kind of subjective heuristic in deciding how many prospects to carry.

Nor would I necessarily pass on a legit good prospect in favor of some vet, if it came to that, particularly if that vet isn't in my long-term plans.

You keep assigning to me opinions I don't hold and assertions I haven't made. A pattern I've noticed going back to other exchanges. Honestly, my impression is that you're so intent on making your argument that you don't read or try to understand what the other person is actually arguing.

To be clear (yet again), my frame of reference IS NOT whether tanking is the right way to team build. My frame of reference is how to make tanking a more effective strategy. I've stated repeatedly and clearly that I am skeptical that throwing young players (prospects) into the deep end and making them swim, absent the mentoring, structure, and opportunity for playing competitive basketball offered by competent vets is the best way to develop talent, nor does it necessarily facilitate a timely pivot from losing to winning. I don't claim this is God's truth; it's a conclusion I've reached via the application of casual observation and learned experience. I could be wrong, I freely admit it. In contrast, you appear to believe that loading up on prospects and, in effect, making them swim, is the better player development strategy. This appears to be crux of our disagreement.

The burden of proof should be on my side? I'd argue that you have a greater burden of proof than I. In arguments and debates, the burden of proof typically falls on the person making a positive claim or assertion - especially one that challenges the status quo or existing beliefs. In an earlier post, you conceded that perhaps your position (i.e., "more prospects always better than fewer prospects") is not widely shared among FOs. Thus, what you call "appeal to authority" is rather establishing the status quo. (This convention isn't strictly true. If the status quo is to believe in, say conspiracies or other such patent nonsense, I don't agree that the burden of proof lies with skeptics. So, such conventions only go so far. I am also cognizant that I appear to be bucking the status quo where it comes to my skepticism of tanking as an effective team building strategy. So, it cuts both ways.)

So, as best I can tell, you're argument that I "don’t think there’s really such thing as having too many prospects" is not the same as "more is always better" hinges on the premise the the prospects are quality prospects, thus more isn't necessarily better if they aren't quality, while "no such thing as having too many prospects" implies they are quality prospects. Does this explain how you see the difference?

If so, one could as easily qualify the "more is always better" to imply more "quality" prospects. At the same time, I don't think anyone would argue that loading up on poor quality prospects is a good strategy. Thus, both statements seem to me to imply that the prospects are of reasonable quality. Thus, I struggle to see the difference between them.

If not, I'm genuinely curious how you distinguish them.

Finally, in my last post I offered an olive branch via a "let's agree to disagree," which is generally understood to be an acknowledgement that disputants aren't likely to reach a productive common ground and thus the best course is for both sides to move on. You apparently didn't take the hint. So, seeing how we appear to be at an unbreachable impasse, let's agree to disagree and move on. If you want the last word, it's yours.
 
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