Trey-Alec-Gordo-Favors-Enes -9 Last Night in 12 Minutes

[GVC]

What does is hurt to have Gobert play THIS year?

Depends on whose minutes he's taking and who he's playing with. Ty Corbin has turned the ball over to the 5 players with the best shot at being high quality rotation players for the Jazz longterm. I think the decisions about playing time and lineups should be made with those 5 players, and their development, in mind. Marvin, RJ, Jeremy, Rush and Diante/JLIII fit into roles that Gobert can't fill (I'd argue that Marvin/Evans play a role that neither Favors nor Kanter has been able to consistently fill as well). Those roles also happen to complement the 5 top young players, and their respective abilities, perfectly. There is no need to jeopardize the development of Trey/Alec/Gordo/Favors/Kanter by forcing a young, raw player under team control for the next 4 years onto the court. I seriously doubt it'll make much difference in Gobert's development (if any).

Dude plays well when he's out there, but I don't think he needs to be rushed OR that he's shown enough to move above the other 5 young players in the pecking order.

and who are this bigger fish in your mind?

In terms of playing time/roles, the biggest problem, in my mind, is the balance between Alec's and RJ's playing time. I think Alec's shown enough consistent, reasonably high-level team and individual play to warrant at least a few more minutes. Hopefully the distribution of minutes in the Wizards game becomes a trend, at least for Alec and RJ.

 

[franklin]

The Gobert malcontents are hilarious. Some will piss and moan no matter what happens. It's almost like they can't enjoy the game anymore and need to bitch about it nonstop (like this is their geriatric ward).

 

[Getting Traded]

This whole discussion about starting v. bench, lineups/complementarities got me thinking about one of my favorite Jazz bench duos (I started watching in 03/04): Millsap+AK.

Since I find it hard to remember the specifics of past Jazz seasons, I took a look at the stats to help refresh my memory and see if what I currently remember as a great duo was, in fact, a great duo.

In 08/09, the Jazz finished 48-34, and lost to the eventual champion Lakers 4-1 in the first round of the playoffs. From a fan perspective, the big stories that season were Carlos Boozer's knee injury/surgery, which limited him to just 37 games, and Paul Millsap's stellar play as his most frequent replacement in the starting lineup. Perhaps lost in the shuffle was Jerry's decision to bring AK off the bench that season; AK started a Utah career low 10 games in 08/09.

Unfortunately, my understanding of offensive/defensive sets and strategy is (and was) limited, so I can't pinpoint why the duo was so effective, but what I remember is two incredibly intelligent players, who brought consistent effort and always played to win. Opposing teams' benches didn't stand a chance.

That season, the Jazz were 19-14 (.576) when the duo came off the bench, 22-16 (.579) when Millsap started, and 6-4 (.600) when AK started (the duo never started together that season). Fortunately, lineup data is available back to the 07/08 season on NBA.com, and I was able to see how well the Jazz did with different combinations of AK/Millsap/neither on the court (unfortunately, there's no way that I know of to measure the quality of their opponents).


For the season, the Team was +217 in 3976 minutes, or +2.62 per 48 minutes.
Paul Millsap was a team best +272 in 2290 minutes. He was second on the team at +5.70/48 minutes.
AK was second on the team at +263 in 1830 minutes. He led the team at +6.90/48 minutes.

AK and Millsap shared the court for 968 minutes in 08/09. In those minutes they were +257, or +12.74/48 minutes. This 2-man lineup ranked 1st on the team in +/- per 48 minutes among the 66 2-man lineups that logged at least 100 minutes. I can only see the top 250 league lineups (in minutes) from that season (the cutoff is 1169 minutes), so the duo doesn't show up, but only 12 of the 250 most used league lineups had a better +/- per 48 than AK-Millsap.

When Millsap was on-court and AK off-court (1322 minutes), the Jazz were +15 (+0.54/48 minutes). When AK was on-court and Millsap off-court (862 minutes), the Jazz were +6 (+0.33/48 minutes).

In the 824 minutes when neither Millsap nor AK were on the court, the Jazz were -61, or -3.55/48 minutes.


So what's the point? Did Jerry make a mistake by not finding more minutes for AK and Millsap (at least when Boozer was healthy) or by not starting one or both of them? Would the success of Millsap-AK, presumably playing a lot of their minutes together against opposing teams' benches, have translated playing more minutes in total and against starters? The answers to both those questions may be "yes", but it's also entirely possible that the Jazz were better off starting Deron-Boozer-Memo when possible, while also bringing AK off the bench to maximize the minutes he played with Millsap (fun fact: In 08/09, Ronnie Price started 17 games, Kosta Koufos 7, Jarron Collins 3, KK and Harp 2, Fes and Mo Almond 1. CJ started 72; Ronnie Brewer started 80). The way players complement each other matters a lot, and scored baskets are worth the same 2 or 3 points no matter how many starters are on the bench.

While there's plenty of room to disagree about minutes, roles, lineups, etc. (what's the counterfactual?), I think it's important to be critical, and consider the possible advantages of using players in different, complementary lineups. Throwing your 5 best overall players out there together may not be what's best for the team or the individual players.

I like that Corbin is using RJ as a placeholder for a 3&D player (I don't know if this is his motivation), allowing Gordo to slide to the 2 and Burks to lead the 2nd unit, giving it a dynamic on-ball player. Unfortunately, RJ's D leaves a lot to be desired (from where I sit), and I think what might be lost in overall size at the 2-3 is made up for in overall talent and athleticism, playing Burks-Gordo instead of Gordo-RJ. That is, I still like Burks off the bench (the benefit of having him play with the second unit is greater than the cost of not having him in the starting lineup), but would like to see him get more of RJ's minutes.

Great analysis. But are we or should we be trying to win games this year? Isn't the purpose of the season to develop the young guys - which is why Gobert should be getting meaningful minutes - and get the highest draft pick possible?

 

[akirac73]

The Gobert malcontents are hilarious. Some will piss and moan no matter what happens. It's almost like they can't enjoy the game anymore and need to bitch about it nonstop (like this is their geriatric ward).

Corbin sucks. And Gobert should get more playing time. Just my 2 cents... Thanks for listening.

 

[[size/HUGE] fixed [/size]]

Depends on whose minutes he's taking and who he's playing with. Ty Corbin has turned the ball over to the 5 players with the best shot at being high quality rotation players for the Jazz longterm. I think the decisions about playing time and lineups should be made with those 5 players, and their development, in mind. Marvin, RJ, Jeremy, Rush and Diante/JLIII fit into roles that Gobert can't fill (I'd argue that Marvin/Evans play a role that neither Favors nor Kanter has been able to consistently fill as well). Those roles also happen to complement the 5 top young players, and their respective abilities, perfectly. There is no need to jeopardize the development of Trey/Alec/Gordo/Favors/Kanter by forcing a young, raw player under team control for the next 4 years onto the court. I seriously doubt it'll make much difference in Gobert's development (if any).

Dude plays well when he's out there, but I don't think he needs to be rushed OR that he's shown enough to move above the other 5 young players in the pecking order.

In terms of playing time/roles, the biggest problem, in my mind, is the balance between Alec's and RJ's playing time. I think Alec's shown enough consistent, reasonably high-level team and individual play to warrant at least a few more minutes. Hopefully the distribution of minutes in the Wizards game becomes a trend, at least for Alec and RJ.

FTW. Great post.

 

[seattlejazzfan]

The Gobert malcontents are hilarious. Some will piss and moan no matter what happens. It's almost like they can't enjoy the game anymore and need to bitch about it nonstop (like this is their geriatric ward).

Dude, he has a wingspan of like, 7'9"!
In all seriousness, I'm one who wishes he'd play a lot more too because I think he's fun to watch.

 

[green]

Your question is stuck in the past.

We can start 1 WING and two GUARDS. Or, sometimes you see 2 WINGS and one GUARD. As long as Hayward can guard the opposing WING, then there is no problem starting both Hayward and Burks.

You can start two wings together. But, isn't Burks defensive numbers beyond bad? And the Jazz can spend some cash this summer and will have a top 10 draft pick. One of those options will be spent looking for a starting SF.

So, if Burks can't cut it defensively, and if you know next year you want him coming off the bench, and he is really good at coming off the bench, why start him?

 

[Zulu]

I've been advocating more playing time for him for a while. I still think super-6th man would be a fantastic outcome in Burks' development.

You said his career would not be better than Rush's!!

 

[Hitman]

Some people are convinced that if we turn over the team completely to the young guns they'll somehow stop developing.

No one has claimed that. Some people can see that RJ and MW have been the right type of complementary players to facilitate the development of the youth, and that replacing them with players inferior in either ability or attitude could have a negative impact on the youth's further development this season. The Core 5 have to share the court with other players for significant time each game, who those players are is important. RJ and MW are not demanding touches nor are they playing as many minutes as most here imagine - four of the C5 average more minutes than both, and the C5 all take way more shots. They are helping the Core 5's development, not hurting it. Unfortunately, some posters just have an unreasoning hatred for vets and can't see how they complement and facilitate our youth.

As if what they've learned to this point will be undone.

No-one has claimed that either, but your attempts to mischaracterise the position of those who disagree with you shows just how weak your own argument is.

 

[fishonjazz]

because I think he's fun to watch.

This
when did entertainment cease to matter?

 

[Ellipse]

I liked the stat..... And i think it shows alot.
Last night the core 5 were not that great together..... in fact in the game thread i posted how i was so excited to see them out there together in the first half.... then my very next post said "they are getting thier butts kicked out there"

What I noticed when they were on the floor together was Hayward being a bit of a ball hog. I don't believe Kanter or Favors were fed the ball by Hayward at anytime during that period.

 

[Getting Traded]

I don't buy this explanation of complementary players to play with the young ones so they can develop. Players develop by playing not by watching. In many cases this season, Marvin and RJ have taken meaningful minutes from the young guys or in some cases resulted in them getting DNPs -- guys like Gobert, who in some instances was outplaying both Favors and Kanter. What's the rush, you say? Well, what's the purpose in leaving this guy on the pine? Look at all the DNPs Burks has gotten -- did that help his development. It hurt his confidence in my opinion, as what happened at the beginning of last year. Corbin has always had poor judgment in giving out minutes. Look at what he did with DMC, who promptly landed a starting position with play-off bound Atlanta. A lot of us were crying out for more minutes for DMC, and even after he earned them, Brain Dead put him back on the bench. All this intellectual justification for the stupidity of Corbin is just absurd. And to think because of him we lost Horny!