We Are No. 27

[LogGrad98]

So they are just like the '04 team. Ranked low, will win more games than people think, mid-range draft pick.

How are they like '04? Who is going to be the pg? What players will be able to play 38 mins a night? What coach is similar to Sloan/Johnson?

Thanks Richard.

I explained how in the sentence.

The '04 team was ranked low, they won more games than expected, they got a high-lottery draft pick.

This team is ranked low, they will win more games than expected, they will get a mid-range lottery draft pick.

So I guess the major difference will be the level of the lottery pick. Likely 6-9 this next year, as opposed to 14 after the '04 season.

 

[green]

I explained how in the sentence.

The '04 team was ranked low, they won more games than expected, they got a high-lottery draft pick.

This team is ranked low, they will win more games than expected, they will get a mid-range lottery draft pick.

So I guess the major difference will be the level of the lottery pick. Likely 6-9 this next year, as opposed to 14 after the '04 season.

Again, Who is going to be the pg? And Arroyo wasn't horrible. He had 13 pts, 5 assists and 2 TO's per game, while shooting 44% and 80 from the charity stripe. Burke will be amazing if he can produce that.

What player(s) will the Jazz play 38 minutes a night? And AK's body was trashed after that year. Will Lindsey even let Corbin play any player that many minutes? Kanter and Favors can't play that many minutes because of foul trouble, even if the Jazz wanted to play them. Also, AK's year was very, very, very amazing that year. If Hayward could replicate that, then wow. Probably won't happen though.

And are you really saying that Corbin and Lowe will put the team in positions to score/win as well as Sloan and Johnson?

Come one now.

 

[franklin]

I'm curious to compare the two teams. Let's see what we find:

Carlos Arroyo - 28 mins, 44% fg, 33% 3pt, 80% ft, 3 rebs, 5 assists, 0.5 TO's, 1 steal, 13 pts. I don't see a pg on the roster than can do that. 2004 wins (I don't even think we have a pg that will play as good as Lopez did that year: 7 pts and 4 assists). Toss in Mo on top of that...PG was much, much better in 2004.

Raja Bell - 25 mins, 41% fg, 37% 3pt, 79% ft, 3 rebs, 1 assist, 1 steal, 11 pts. Hayward is better. 2013 wins. Unless Burks starts here. If Burks has this season, that would be amazing. So, Hayward better, Burks - best case scenario. So, if we go Burks here, 2004 better or push. Stevenson was backing Bell up. Stevenson had 12 pts a game. This would be best case scenario for this year's upcoming team: To have Rush have a season like Bell and Burke have a season like Stevenson.

Andrei Kirilenko - 37 mins, 44% fg, 34% 3pt, 80% ft, 8 rebs, 3 assists, 2 steals, 17 pts. Let's put him up against Hayward. Again, if Hayward can have this type of year, that would be amazing with him having to shoulder the burden of the team. So, 2004 wins or a push.

Matt Harpring - 37 mins, 47% fg, 25% 3pt, 69% ft, 8 rebs, 2 assists, 1 steal, 16 pts. If Favors or Kanter could have a year like this...wow. That would be great again. So, this would be best case scenario for Kanter (I put Kanter here because he will probably attempt some threes...and should be able to hit 25% of them). So, 2004 is better or push.

Ostertag - 28 mins, 48% fg, 0% 3pt, 58% ft, 7 rebs, 2 assists, 0.5 steals, 7 pts. Favors had better be better than Ostertag.

So, out of five positions, only one position will be guaranteed to be better this year, and that is the Favors vs Ostertag spot.

2004's PG position was much, much better than ours, with Arroyo, Lopez and Mo Williams.

2004's SG position is our best case scenario with Bell and DeShaun.

2004's SF position is our best case scenario with how well AK played and how many minutes AK played.

2004's PF position is our best case scenario with well Matt Harpring played and the minutes. If Kanter could play Matt's minutes....Wow, that would be awesome.

2013 C position had better be better with Favors vs Ostertag.

So, everyone of 2004's starters were as good or better than our starters. Let's look at the bench, shall we?

PG - Lopez, Mo Williams vs Lucas, Clark...Huh, a solid player and future all star vs ....uh...crap. 2004 wins.
SG - Giri/DeShaun vs Burks. Hopefully a push. DeShawn shot 45% fg and had 11 pts. Giri had 43 fg%, 36 3pt, 14 pts. If Burks can do that...well, then awesome. So 2004 is better to maybe, maybe a push.
SF - The backup was Giri, Harp, and AK. AK played 38 mins a game. I don't know if Hayward can play that many minutes, or if the Jazz will even let him play that many minutes. AK spent the rest of his career hurt. Look at his games played, starting in 2002-2003 season: 80, 78 (when he played 38 mins a game), 41, 69,70. If I were Utah, I would not waste Hayward in a tank year. I let him play in the low 30's MAX. So, it is AK, Giri, and Harp vs Richard Jefferson and Marvin Williams. 2004 better.
PF/C - Again, AK, Gugliotta, Collins and Ruffin vs Biedrens, Gobert and Evans. Uh, that is pathetic. 2004 better.

Must spread.

Arguing details aside, this and your following posts are some of the best arguments against the Jazz winning many games next season.

 

[franklin]

To sum up that monstrosity above, the only starter we have this year that will definitely be better than the 2004 starter is the Favors vs Ostertag matchup. If Kanter, Hayward, and Burks can reproduce what AK, Harp and Bell did, that would be fantastic, but they probably won't. And there is no way Burke will play as well as Arroyo.

Using Arroyo is the best way to show how bad this team will be if Burke doesn't pan out. After going 42-40, the Jazz added Memo and Boozer, & Harpring, Ak & Bell were still getting better. The team was better on paper and came out of the gate swinging to a 6-1 record. Next thing we know, Arroyo is being a drama queen and getting on Sloan's nerves. The Jazz then go 2-10 and Arroyo is looking at his last stint in a Jazz uniform. Incompetent McCloud & Eisley try to fill the gap, but never give Sloan enough to bench Arroyo more. The offense continued to deteriorate.

This entire season hinges on who Trey Burke is. If he can play then the Jazz have a shot at 30-32 wins. If he cannot then we're looking at a complete train wreck.

 

[Deleted member 848]

I'm curious to compare the two teams. Let's see what we find:

Carlos Arroyo - 28 mins, 44% fg, 33% 3pt, 80% ft, 3 rebs, 5 assists, 0.5 TO's, 1 steal, 13 pts. I don't see a pg on the roster than can do that. 2004 wins (I don't even think we have a pg that will play as good as Lopez did that year: 7 pts and 4 assists). Toss in Mo on top of that...PG was much, much better in 2004.

Raja Bell - 25 mins, 41% fg, 37% 3pt, 79% ft, 3 rebs, 1 assist, 1 steal, 11 pts. Hayward is better. 2013 wins. Unless Burks starts here. If Burks has this season, that would be amazing. So, Hayward better, Burks - best case scenario. So, if we go Burks here, 2004 better or push. Stevenson was backing Bell up. Stevenson had 12 pts a game. This would be best case scenario for this year's upcoming team: To have Rush have a season like Bell and Burke have a season like Stevenson.

Andrei Kirilenko - 37 mins, 44% fg, 34% 3pt, 80% ft, 8 rebs, 3 assists, 2 steals, 17 pts. Let's put him up against Hayward. Again, if Hayward can have this type of year, that would be amazing with him having to shoulder the burden of the team. So, 2004 wins or a push.

Matt Harpring - 37 mins, 47% fg, 25% 3pt, 69% ft, 8 rebs, 2 assists, 1 steal, 16 pts. If Favors or Kanter could have a year like this...wow. That would be great again. So, this would be best case scenario for Kanter (I put Kanter here because he will probably attempt some threes...and should be able to hit 25% of them). So, 2004 is better or push.

Ostertag - 28 mins, 48% fg, 0% 3pt, 58% ft, 7 rebs, 2 assists, 0.5 steals, 7 pts. Favors had better be better than Ostertag.

So, out of five positions, only one position will be guaranteed to be better this year, and that is the Favors vs Ostertag spot.

2004's PG position was much, much better than ours, with Arroyo, Lopez and Mo Williams.

2004's SG position is our best case scenario with Bell and DeShaun.

2004's SF position is our best case scenario with how well AK played and how many minutes AK played.

2004's PF position is our best case scenario with well Matt Harpring played and the minutes. If Kanter could play Matt's minutes....Wow, that would be awesome.

2013 C position had better be better with Favors vs Ostertag.

So, everyone of 2004's starters were as good or better than our starters. Let's look at the bench, shall we?

PG - Lopez, Mo Williams vs Lucas, Clark...Huh, a solid player and future all star vs ....uh...crap. 2004 wins.
SG - Giri/DeShaun vs Burks. Hopefully a push. DeShawn shot 45% fg and had 11 pts. Giri had 43 fg%, 36 3pt, 14 pts. If Burks can do that...well, then awesome. So 2004 is better to maybe, maybe a push.
SF - The backup was Giri, Harp, and AK. AK played 38 mins a game. I don't know if Hayward can play that many minutes, or if the Jazz will even let him play that many minutes. AK spent the rest of his career hurt. Look at his games played, starting in 2002-2003 season: 80, 78 (when he played 38 mins a game), 41, 69,70. If I were Utah, I would not waste Hayward in a tank year. I let him play in the low 30's MAX. So, it is AK, Giri, and Harp vs Richard Jefferson and Marvin Williams. 2004 better.
PF/C - Again, AK, Gugliotta, Collins and Ruffin vs Biedrens, Gobert and Evans. Uh, that is pathetic. 2004 better.

Very interesting.


Personally, I stack it like this:

Burke > Arroyo (homerism, I know)
Burks, Rush, Clark > Bell, Deshaun
Hayward, Marv, Rush, Jefferson > Harpring
AK ....= Favors. Completely different PFs. 2004 AK > 2012-2013 Hayward though-- but well have to see what Hayward does in the coming season. Ak of then was better than any player we currently have on our roster, though.
Enes, Gobert > Ostertag


But, and probably most importantly,

Sloan >>>lol>>>> Corbin




So they have a better star-player in AK, a better coach in Sloan, and potentially a better bench.


Whereas we have a much more athletic, and defensively capable starting lineup (minus AK). I think theres a couple things that could shift our season:


1) Marv comes back fully healthy, maybe even a little early, and gives us great minutes at the 4. He could seriously punish teams as a stretch-4, and quite frankly this is what I see in him going forward into his career. He's very mobile, a very smart defender, and has a lot of size. Gives us a little depth @ arguably our least deep position
2) Injury bug. Hayward, Favors, Kanter, or Burke. Either of these 4 getting hurt will plummet our team's record.
3) Burke. It'll be exciting to watch this young man this season.

Most importantly, I don't see this team tanking. People are pulling up comparisons between us and OKC a few years back, but I think they're inaccurate. Hayward and Favors are playing for contracts. They want to prove to the league that they are ready to run the show, and that they aren't best-suited as backups. Obviously if we're 17-55 with a few games left in the season, they might sit out to avoid further injury-- but otherwise, we're gonna compete every night. People who think we'll pull a GSW are deluding themselves.

And I don't care, quite frankly. I definitely think we're a piece (and a competent bench) away from being a top 4 seed, but this piece doesn't have to be Wiggins, or Parker, or w/e. Indiana took Miami to 7 games this past season, damn-near beat them, with ZERO top ten picks on their team. Count em. Zero. We just need to draft smart, pick players that fit in, and develop them as well as possible.

Either hope that one of our current players becomes a closer, try to draft a closer, or package many of our valuable pieces for one. We truly don't have to forfeit this season to win a championship-- so brace yourself for disappointment when you see Kanter and Favors still playing >30mpg even when the playoffs are completely out of our grasp.

 

[Deleted member 848]

Using Arroyo is the best way to show how bad this team will be if Burke doesn't pan out. After going 42-40, the Jazz added Memo and Boozer, & Harpring, Ak & Bell were still getting better. The team was better on paper and came out of the gate swinging to a 6-1 record. Next thing we know, Arroyo is being a drama queen and getting on Sloan's nerves. The Jazz then go 2-10 and Arroyo is looking at his last stint in a Jazz uniform. Incompetent McCloud & Eisley try to fill the gap, but never give Sloan enough to bench Arroyo more. The offense continued to deteriorate.

This entire season hinges on who Trey Burke is. If he can play then the Jazz have a shot at 30-32 wins. If he cannot then we're looking at a complete train wreck.

Burke is gonna be a ROTY candidate. Calling it now, bishes.

 

[Coach Ellis]

IMO, the Jazz are going to start slow and then finish strong. They'll win a few home games here and there, but the young guys are going to cost them some games (especially Burke while he gets up to speed at the NBA level), the bench is going to cost them some games and the coaching staff is going to cost them some games.

I think that some of the young players will play great in spurts, but all the new and negative parts of this team will be too much to overcome. As long as the Core 6 players are getting quality minutes and learning, they could lose every game this year and I'll love it. I think that they'll be a lot better at the end of the season when they've had a chance to gel as a team. I don't think that they have to deliberately tank to be lose games this year.

 

[Stoked]

I expect Kanter, and to a lesser degree Burks, to come out and just ball their damn hearts out. I see in them an aggressive hunger that I don't in Hayward and Favors. I hope for Kanter to explode. with his strength he could dominate down low and give Gasol and Hibbert all they can handle and then some. He just has to put it together.

 

[Stoked]

IMO, the Jazz are going to start slow and then finish strong. They'll win a few home games here and there, but the young guys are going to cost them some games (especially Burke while he gets up to speed at the NBA level), the bench is going to cost them some games and the coaching staff is going to cost them some games.

I think that some of the young players will play great in spurts, but all the new and negative parts of this team will be too much to overcome. As long as the Core 6 players are getting quality minutes and learning, they could lose every game this year and I'll love it. I think that they'll be a lot better at the end of the season when they've had a chance to gel as a team. I don't think that they have to deliberately tank to be lose games this year.

I really like your first paragraph.

 

[green]

Using Arroyo is the best way to show how bad this team will be if Burke doesn't pan out. After going 42-40, the Jazz added Memo and Boozer, & Harpring, Ak & Bell were still getting better. The team was better on paper and came out of the gate swinging to a 6-1 record. Next thing we know, Arroyo is being a drama queen and getting on Sloan's nerves. The Jazz then go 2-10 and Arroyo is looking at his last stint in a Jazz uniform. Incompetent McCloud & Eisley try to fill the gap, but never give Sloan enough to bench Arroyo more. The offense continued to deteriorate.

This entire season hinges on who Trey Burke is. If he can play then the Jazz have a shot at 30-32 wins. If he cannot then we're looking at a complete train wreck.

I agree 100%. My worry about Burke is that Corbin hasn't shown he knows what to do on the offensive side of the ball, Burke runs a pick and roll offense, and Kanter, Favors and Corbin haven't touched the PNR yet. I don't have faith that Corbin can put Burke in a position to succeed. I see Corbin just tossing him out there, saying run an offense, Burke holding onto the ball for 20 secs, and then jacking up a shot...because that is Corbin's offense.

But, I agree 100%

 

[green]

Very interesting.


Personally, I stack it like this:

Burke > Arroyo (homerism, I know)
Burks, Rush, Clark > Bell, Deshaun
Hayward, Marv, Rush, Jefferson > Harpring
AK ....= Favors. Completely different PFs. 2004 AK > 2012-2013 Hayward though-- but well have to see what Hayward does in the coming season. Ak of then was better than any player we currently have on our roster, though.
Enes, Gobert > Ostertag


But, and probably most importantly,

Sloan >>>lol>>>> Corbin




So they have a better star-player in AK, a better coach in Sloan, and potentially a better bench.


Whereas we have a much more athletic, and defensively capable starting lineup (minus AK). I think theres a couple things that could shift our season:


1) Marv comes back fully healthy, maybe even a little early, and gives us great minutes at the 4. He could seriously punish teams as a stretch-4, and quite frankly this is what I see in him going forward into his career. He's very mobile, a very smart defender, and has a lot of size. Gives us a little depth @ arguably our least deep position
2) Injury bug. Hayward, Favors, Kanter, or Burke. Either of these 4 getting hurt will plummet our team's record.
3) Burke. It'll be exciting to watch this young man this season.

Most importantly, I don't see this team tanking. People are pulling up comparisons between us and OKC a few years back, but I think they're inaccurate. Hayward and Favors are playing for contracts. They want to prove to the league that they are ready to run the show, and that they aren't best-suited as backups. Obviously if we're 17-55 with a few games left in the season, they might sit out to avoid further injury-- but otherwise, we're gonna compete every night. People who think we'll pull a GSW are deluding themselves.

And I don't care, quite frankly. I definitely think we're a piece (and a competent bench) away from being a top 4 seed, but this piece doesn't have to be Wiggins, or Parker, or w/e. Indiana took Miami to 7 games this past season, damn-near beat them, with ZERO top ten picks on their team. Count em. Zero. We just need to draft smart, pick players that fit in, and develop them as well as possible.

Either hope that one of our current players becomes a closer, try to draft a closer, or package many of our valuable pieces for one. We truly don't have to forfeit this season to win a championship-- so brace yourself for disappointment when you see Kanter and Favors still playing >30mpg even when the playoffs are completely out of our grasp.

A couple of things. Harp was good that year and played 38 mins a game. Same with AK (38 mins a game). Between the 4 and 3 positions, the Jazz didn't use their bench in 2004. I don't see Hayward, Kanter and Favors getting 38 mins a game. So, while those three might be comparable to AK and Harp, AK and Harp are light years better than our bench.

I like your points #1, 2 and 3. Favors and Hayward are playing for deals, but I don't think they will get the minutes to hide how terrible the bench is.

I agree with your last points, that we have a solid core, but if we are going to miss the playoffs, you might as well miss hard, only play your young guys 30 mins a night, make sure they are 100% healthy before they play and see if you can add a Wiggins/Randle/Parker to that group.

 

[green]

I expect Kanter, and to a lesser degree Burks, to come out and just ball their damn hearts out. I see in them an aggressive hunger that I don't in Hayward and Favors. I hope for Kanter to explode. with his strength he could dominate down low and give Gasol and Hibbert all they can handle and then some. He just has to put it together.

I agree...but can Kanter play 38 mins a night? Will the Jazz let him? Even if the core 4 turn into All-Stars, if they are only playing 30 mins a night, they will lose a ton of games.

 

[franklin]

I agree 100%. My worry about Burke is that Corbin hasn't shown he knows what to do on the offensive side of the ball, Burke runs a pick and roll offense, and Kanter, Favors and Corbin haven't touched the PNR yet. I don't have faith that Corbin can put Burke in a position to succeed. I see Corbin just tossing him out there, saying run an offense, Burke holding onto the ball for 20 secs, and then jacking up a shot...because that is Corbin's offense.

But, I agree 100%

Ahem. It doesn't matter if I walk you through the same exact plays that Corbin and Poppovich run, or Corbin and Sloan ran... this myth will never go away thanks to Jefferson and Mo Williams not being able to run anything well.

Just yesterday I was watching Kanter plays on mysynergy. Perfect flex with Burks cutting through with a first option over the top lob for layup -- not there. 2nd option Burk sets a low screen for Kanter -- no layup there. Ball reverses to Favors in high post which triggers Burks to reverse and run back through, Marvin slides up and takes a pass for the two man pnr, hits Favors for the driving layup, defense slides over to help on Favors, leaving Burks and Kanter in perfect rebounding position & Marvin and PG can get back for defense... Favors misses long and Kanter cleans up for easy bucket.

It was ran perfectly, with three of the young guys on the floor. But yeah, lets keep withholding support for Corbin because of Jefferson and Mo.

A couple of things. Harp was good that year and played 38 mins a game. Same with AK (38 mins a game).

Not to mention that Ostertag for all his faults was a competent defender. Starting Tag-AK-Harp is a pretty big lineup.

 

[franklin]

Golly gee wiz, did Corbin just run a modified version of the Harpring curl on the opposite side of the floor & with a single screen instead? For a game winner? Na, couldn't be.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mOrlDOnVC-I

 

[NUMBERICA]

Using Arroyo is the best way to show how bad this team will be if Burke doesn't pan out. After going 42-40, the Jazz added Memo and Boozer, & Harpring, Ak & Bell were still getting better. The team was better on paper and came out of the gate swinging to a 6-1 record. Next thing we know, Arroyo is being a drama queen and getting on Sloan's nerves. The Jazz then go 2-10 and Arroyo is looking at his last stint in a Jazz uniform. Incompetent McCloud & Eisley try to fill the gap, but never give Sloan enough to bench Arroyo more. The offense continued to deteriorate.

Nice take.

This entire season hinges on who Trey Burke is. If he can play then the Jazz have a shot at 30-32 wins. If he cannot then we're looking at a complete train wreck.

I've had a very similar thought. And if Summer League Burke is any indication at all, we could be looking at a hideous record.

 

[NUMBERICA]

I do think that the Jazz's starting lineup is much more talented than 2004's but the bench is looking very, very poor and while I think most of us have been a little too hard on Corbin, he is not '03-'04 Sloan. At least until he proves otherwise, but I don't see it.

 

[NUMBERICA]

BTW, I have it on pretty good word that the Jazz organization is NOT high on Corbin and that Lindsey saved his job this year (which, in addition to the signing of Lucas III, mounts evidence that the org is doing it's best to rob Corbin of better options than The Five with an eye pointed specifically at making it hard to win games. Or, organizational tanking. I still don't see the Jazz tanking on the floor, however).

 

[green]

Franklin, I like you, you sarcastic son of a bitch. You make me laugh. Enjoyed the video.

 

[NUMBERICA]

Hayward, Marv, Rush, Jefferson > Harpring

Harpring in that era was a much better player than Hayward, Rush, or Marv have ever been, and Jefferson is done as far as I can see.

 

[Deleted member 848]

Harpring in that era was a much better player than Hayward, Rush, or Marv have ever been, and Jefferson is done as far as I can see.

a) They're completely different players-- Hayward is more of a long 2, with great passing skills, and great shooting. Harpring is more of a prototypical 3 in terms of focusing more of his attempts closer to the hoop, rebounding, higher percentage shots. As you could imagine, our team needs a player of Hayward's skill set much more than Harpring's. I wouldn't say that Harpring was a much better player.

b) Better at what? Scoring? Shooting? Rebounding? Late-game dependability? Either way, Hayward just finished his third season, whereas Harpring really exploded in his 5th (shocker-- proving the 3 year rule wrong). We don't know what Hayward could do next year-- if he has zero improvement over the offseason, is 36per stats alone would place him on par with Paul George, and above Harpring in many categories (save for rebounding, if I'm not mistaken)



Either way, my point was that our rotation at the 3 spot cumulatively is more deep than the 2004 Jazz team-- not that each player was better than Matt. Im surprised you didn't catch that. Either way, if you don't agree, then I can respect that I s'pose.