When did you become such a doomer? Join a cult or something?
No clue why anyone would think Trump will dismantle social security. That’s definitely not happening. Trump TCJA was marginal help to low income seniors, marginal but everything helps when affording basics is tough. He campaigned on removing SS tax and also removing tax on treasuries which also helps pensioners. He’s not gutting social security.
Tariffs will make the economy fall apart? Pure fear mongering. I’m open to hearing the mechanics of how they’ll be so hurtful and not help, but nobody offering up much other than fear. Try reading Michael Pettis if this is a big concern. I think he could alleviate some fears, if not convince you to switch stances as he has so many others over last two decades. I haven’t read him comment on Smoot-Hawley but enough knowledge here to understand how silly comparing 1932 export powerhouse USA to 2024 high trade deficit importer USA is. Trade wars disproportionately affect surplus countries (the ones with jobs to lose). This is in part why it took the US until WWII to come out of the depression, where Europeans exited sooner.
Trade is not 100% of GDP and the potential inflation is being way overblown. Many of the Chinese manufacturers have high profit margins. Those will likely absorb the brunt of tariff increases on their products. Substitution and made at home can offset more. Imports are roughly 14% of GDP, so a 10% tariff could mean a 1.4% inflation bump on back of napkin. One time. Not compounding.
The current account must balance. This means we manufacture assets to make up the goods n services deficit. We are selling off $100 billion of our country per month, and have lost millions of jobs. This has gutted small town America as we had no retraining program to counter negative consequences of the Washington Consensus.
I found the part on reduced lifetime income important. That’s also loss of national income while increasing welfare load. Free trade is not one sided.
The worry that “they will retaliate” is backwards. Trump-Biden tariffs are the retaliation to Chinese beggar-thy-neighbor policies designed to gut US industry. Is your recommendation really do nothing? Not only have we allowed them to undercut our businesses through subsidy, theft, import controls, & artificial yen devaluation, there are big future problems with allowing this trend to continue. We lose knowledge and most importantly investment and innovation, lowering future competitiveness and economic security.
Responding to foreign mercantilism is patriotic. We can handle a tiny amount of incremental inflation. Call it an investment in our future.
