100 gay men would probably need to invent a time machine to survive
100 gay women on an island would probably die in a week, maybe days depending on the fiestyness of the group, or potentially hours if a real idiot is elected leader.
cellphones, well 2013 should be the first year in the history of the world where over 1 billion cellphones should be sold, a third of which apparently will go to china, some of these lesser developed nations will not be ready for lets say 2g,3g,4g speed wireless for many many many years, maybe 10-15..
in that time i think the phenonemna which is commonly known as "Tablet Cannibalization" which began when the ipad was unvieled, should continue to gain in steam, alot of #'s relating to PC's and their sales worldwide have been unusually light since this "tablet cannibiliazation" has begun to occur.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zhIexQ1DGis perhaps watches obsolete them both??? if i had to directly answer the question you ask id say 12 years, 2025.
and do i have a problem with you? no