What are the odds of getting THAT GUY via draft?

[sip]

It isn't even that hard. Imagine that Hayward doesn't leave and we still add Mitchell. Or the Jazz don't trade up for Burke an just use their picks on Giannis and Rudy (there was a lot of smoke that the Jazz were looking that direction.) Both of those things, that were entirely plausible, put us deep into contention.

The three things you can absolutely control are:

1. Hire a great coach.
2. Draft well, don't waste picks wherever they might fall.
3. Don't cripple yourself with bad contracts. Ideally your players should outperform their contracts, especially your max players.

You do those things you put yourself in the position to sieze upon luck when it shows its face.

If we could have had Mitchell for one year with Hayward and I don't think there is anyway Hayward leaves and we may have a banner right now. The same thing goes for drafting Booker instead of Lyles. I don't think Hayward leaves with Booker around. He left because the playoffs had shown that he had very little help offensively to take this team to the next level.

 

[sip]

So it needs to be pared down, not added to. Good point.

Not at all. Players need to be put in the right situation with the right pieces around them to win titles. Put Melo on those Pistons teams instead of Darko and they win multiple titles and he is viewed completely differently. Replace Tony Parker with a prime Dwill, Arenas or Baron Davis and they still win multiple titles and those guys are viewed as Hall of famers. Their are tons of great offensive players that are capable of being the number 1 option on a championship team if surrounded by the right pieces. Then we also have 3 champions over the last 20 years in the mavs, Pistons and 2014 spurs that didn't even have that tier 1 guy but were unbelievably well rounded teams.

 

[The Midnight]

But by definition it means they aren't THAT GUY. Since he is going for clear #1's on finals-worthy teams he can't include clear #2's in the list and most of those are 2's.

Didn't Paul Pierce have a Finals MVP?

 

[LogGrad98]

Not at all. Players need to be put in the right situation with the right pieces around them to win titles. Put Melo on those Pistons teams instead of Darko and they win multiple titles and he is viewed completely differently. Replace Tony Parker with a prime Dwill, Arenas or Baron Davis and they still win multiple titles and those guys are viewed as Hall of famers. Their are tons of great offensive players that are capable of being the number 1 option on a championship team if surrounded by the right pieces. Then we also have 3 champions over the last 20 years in the mavs, Pistons and 2014 spurs that didn't even have that tier 1 guy but were unbelievably well rounded teams.

You're missing the point. The OP was trying to provide a list of who he viewed as THAT GUY on winning teams. It's his list. I was simply pointing that out. You went on about 2nd tier guys and everything else, but I was just pointing out that his list was meant to be #1 options and how rare they are. Nothing was said about development and building teams, so I'm not sure what you're arguing about.

 

[LogGrad98]

Didn't Paul Pierce have a Finals MVP?

I don't care. It's not my list. I was just pointing out he was making a list of top players and showing how rare they are. Sure add Pierce to the list. Whatever. Doesn't mean anything in terms of the OP.

 

[Thee Jazz Fan]

Just to throw a monkey wrench into the equation, not all drafts are created equal, by all accounts this is a deep draft and the next might be even deeper.

 

[sip]

You're missing the point. The OP was trying to provide a list of who he viewed as THAT GUY on winning teams. It's his list. I was simply pointing that out. You went on about 2nd tier guys and everything else, but I was just pointing out that his list was meant to be #1 options and how rare they are. Nothing was said about development and building teams, so I'm not sure what you're arguing about.

I'm not missing the point. I just completely disagree. There are alot of guys that can be bona-fide tier 1 scorers like Paul Pierce, Arenas, Melo and many others on championship teams if they are complemented by the right pieces. Also he put together a list that was extremely flawed. He has guys like Blake Griffin and Amare but doesn't have Chris Webber, Pau, Shawn Kemp, Bosh, Rasheed Wallace, Elton Brand and Shawn Marion who were just as good or better than those 2 guys in my opinion. The same goes for having a guy like Booker on their but not Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, Melo, Vince Carter and Manu who are all guys I would take over Booker. Then you have Ben Wallace who was great but I don't think he was better than Gobert or Mutombo. In the end the truly elite like LeBron, Duncan and Shaq are extremely rare but we are seeing tons of star players emerge all the time.

 

[idiot]

Just to throw a monkey wrench into the equation, not all drafts are created equal, by all accounts this is a deep draft and the next might be even deeper.

Yes, I acknowledge this. But, as I also said in the original post, you can't just keep having above average drafts. The NBA is a zero-sum game. There were never more than three THAT guys in any single draft over the past 30 years. To expect that to happen in any given year in the future is probably folly.

 

[Thee Jazz Fan]

Yes, I acknowledge this. But, as I also said in the original post, you can't just keep having above average drafts. The NBA is a zero-sum game. There were never more than three THAT guys in any single draft over the past 30 years. To expect that to happen in any given year in the future is probably folly.

Another monkey wrench the jazz have had a lot of luck in the draft. In two different era’s they’ve drafted stars just in or out of the lotto twice. Stockton and Malone in 84/85 and Gobert and Mitchell in 13/17.

 

[LogGrad98]

I'm not missing the point. I just completely disagree. There are alot of guys that can be bona-fide tier 1 scorers like Paul Pierce, Arenas, Melo and many others on championship teams if they are complemented by the right pieces. Also he put together a list that was extremely flawed. He has guys like Blake Griffin and Amare but doesn't have Chris Webber, Pau, Shawn Kemp, Bosh, Rasheed Wallace, Elton Brand and Shawn Marion who were just as good or better than those 2 guys in my opinion. The same goes for having a guy like Booker on their but not Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, Melo, Vince Carter and Manu who are all guys I would take over Booker. Then you have Ben Wallace who was great but I don't think he was better than Gobert or Mutombo. In the end the truly elite like LeBron, Duncan and Shaq are extremely rare but we are seeing tons of star players emerge all the time.

That's fine. I don't care.

 

[idiot]

Championships still come down to the 2nd and 3rd pieces around the 1st guy as well as quality role players. Don and Rudy could have been the cornerstone pieces of a championship team if DL and Zanik hadn't screwed up so badly over the last few years with free agents and drafting. Hell just Desmond Bane alone could have been the difference between a championship team the last few years. Can you imagine if during the 2020 offseason if instead of Favors and Udoka we went with Portis and Bane. Portis made so much sense for us since we needed a stretch big and the same goes with Bane. Even McDaniels instead of Bane could have changed things as well.

Yes, I agree with your first sentence whole-heartedly. I don't agree with your part about the Jazz. I'd like to believe it, sure, but I think history shows how unlikely that actually would have been.

 

[idiot]

Not at all. Players need to be put in the right situation with the right pieces around them to win titles. Put Melo on those Pistons teams instead of Darko and they win multiple titles and he is viewed completely differently. Replace Tony Parker with a prime Dwill, Arenas or Baron Davis and they still win multiple titles and those guys are viewed as Hall of famers. Their are tons of great offensive players that are capable of being the number 1 option on a championship team if surrounded by the right pieces. Then we also have 3 champions over the last 20 years in the mavs, Pistons and 2014 spurs that didn't even have that tier 1 guy but were unbelievably well rounded teams.

I told you my criteria: 1st and 2nd team all NBA at minimum. Then cut out all guys who only made one second team (and a couple who made it twice), plus a couple of centers who made first-team All-NBA in a center-poor era. All the guys on the list (save Butler, who I think probably would have made it if he could have stayed healthy during regular seasons), made my THAT GUY list. Those not on those lists didn't. If you want to start introducing more "subjectivity" into the list, be my guest.

But the Mavs, Pistons, and Spurs certainly did have at least one THAT GUY by my criteria on their teams.