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What are the odds of getting THAT GUY via draft?

Yes.

Now can you answer mine?

Can we win a Chip without THAT GUY?

Got, and therefore you must believe that waiving Lauri is a positive move.

The answer to your follow up question is probably not, but I never made that claim and it is not the same as the point I made. The point I made is they are not the same and you continue to prove this point by asking this question.
 
Got, and therefore you must believe that waiving Lauri is a positive move.

The answer to your follow up question is probably not, but I never made that claim and it is not the same as the point I made. The point I made is they are not the same and you continue to prove this point by asking this question.
You can get THAT GUY without waiving Lauri.. c’mon now.. put your thinking cap on bro.. lol..
 
Yes, vital pieces, but not first fiddles (in my view). The difference between THAT GUY and really important guys. If we open it up to this level of player, then I think we're saying essentially that Donovan or Rudy would have been enough to have been the centerpiece of a championship team. I don't think they were.
Championships still come down to the 2nd and 3rd pieces around the 1st guy as well as quality role players. Don and Rudy could have been the cornerstone pieces of a championship team if DL and Zanik hadn't screwed up so badly over the last few years with free agents and drafting. Hell just Desmond Bane alone could have been the difference between a championship team the last few years. Can you imagine if during the 2020 offseason if instead of Favors and Udoka we went with Portis and Bane. Portis made so much sense for us since we needed a stretch big and the same goes with Bane. Even McDaniels instead of Bane could have changed things as well.
 
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Without the tools though, it normally doesn't happen. There are a few guys who are one-of-a-kind, like say, Jokic or maybe Luka. If I were drafting, unless I thought someone was just over-the-top special, I'd pick from the main archetypes. But my standards for THAT GUY might be pretty high--probably 1st Team All NBA.

In the last draft, the only guy I saw as potentially being THAT GUY was probably Paolo.
Pfffft. . . Walker Kessler covers all 3 of your "archetypes" and can coach some too. . .
 
You missed out on quite a few players my man. Paul Pierce? Kyrie? Pau? Ray Allen?

Those players might not be able to single-handedly win it but they’re vital piece.
But by definition it means they aren't THAT GUY. Since he is going for clear #1's on finals-worthy teams he can't include clear #2's in the list and most of those are 2's.
 
Championships still come down to the 2nd and 3rd pieces around the 1st guy as well as quality role players. Don and Rudy could have been the cornerstone pieces of a championship team if DL and Zanik hadn't screwed up so badly over the last few years with free agents and drafting. Hell just Desmond Bane alone could have been the difference between a championship team the last few years. Can you imagine if during the 2020 offseason if instead of Favors and Udoka we went with Portis and Bane. Portis made so much sense for us since we needed a stretch big and the same goes with Bane. Even McDaniels instead of Bane could have changed things as well.
It isn't even that hard. Imagine that Hayward doesn't leave and we still add Mitchell. Or the Jazz don't trade up for Burke an just use their picks on Giannis and Rudy (there was a lot of smoke that the Jazz were looking that direction.) Both of those things, that were entirely plausible, put us deep into contention.

The three things you can absolutely control are:

1. Hire a great coach.
2. Draft well, don't waste picks wherever they might fall.
3. Don't cripple yourself with bad contracts. Ideally your players should outperform their contracts, especially your max players.

You do those things you put yourself in the position to sieze upon luck when it shows its face.
 
But by definition it means they aren't THAT GUY. Since he is going for clear #1's on finals-worthy teams he can't include clear #2's in the list and most of those are 2's.
His original list has tons of number 2's throughout there career.
 
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