What are the odds of getting THAT GUY via draft?

[idiot]

I’m really intrigued by this line of thinking.

Just out of curiosity, who all are the THAT GUY that you identified?

I’d like to look at a couple of other things as well and see if there’s any other interesting trends. . .

Here's my list:

• Shaquille O'Neal
• Allen Iverson
• Tim Duncan
• LeBron James
• Dwight Howard
• Derrick Rose
• Blake Griffin
• Anthony Davis
• Jason Kidd
• Alonzo Mourning
• Gary Payton
• Kevin Durant
• James Harden
• Joel Embiid
• Jayson Tatum
• Luka Doncic
• Chris Paul
• Russell Westbrook
• Kevin Garnett
• Dwyane Wade
• Damian Lillard
• Stephen Curry
• Tracy McGrady
• Dirk Nowitzki
• Amar'e Stoudemire
• Paul George
• Kobe Bryant
• Devin Booker
• Steve Nash
• Kawhi Leonard
• Giannis Antetokounmpo
• Tony Parker
• Jimmy Butler
• Nikola Jokic
• Marc Gasol
• Ben Wallace

 

[idiot]

By the way, for anyone curious, here's what happens to the THAT GUY odds if you change the odds of Victor becoming THAT GUY from the historical 26.7% to 66.7% (I don't think it's fair to anyone to go higher than that, given injury and other possibilities):

1st (worst record) =16.8%
2nd = 16.3%
3rd = 15.9%
4th = 14.6%
5th = 13.1%
6th = 11.6%
7th = 10.4%
8th = 9.2%
9th = 7.9%
10th = 6.5%
11th = 5.2%
12th = 4.7%
13th = 4.3%
14th = 3.8%
15th = 3.3%

 

[sip]

Aminu couldn't shoot and had almost no ball skills. He was probably never going to be an All Star. What I'm saying is that BOTH elite physical tools AND elite skills are needed to be able to create enough impact to be THAT GUY. That said, the mental side of the equation is also truly underrated. I agree with you there. Gobert became what he is because he has real competitive drive and some mental toughness. Hayward had it too before his injuries. Not everyone has the drive to maximize their abilities.

Yep. I had Paul George as a top 3 pick that year and couldn't believe he dropped to the pacers. It seemed like a no brainer that he was a better prospect than Aminu. The same goes for Hayward. The gap in skill Aminu and those other guys was night and day.

 

[idiot]

THAT guy is always available at some point

The Grizzlies got THAT guy at 30 one year.

The odds (again based on the 30 year-history) are less than one percent beyond pick 15: 0.44% for picks 16-30; and 0.33% for after the first round.

 

[sip]

Here's my list:

• Shaquille O'Neal
• Allen Iverson
• Tim Duncan
• LeBron James
• Dwight Howard
• Derrick Rose
• Blake Griffin
• Anthony Davis
• Jason Kidd
• Alonzo Mourning
• Gary Payton
• Kevin Durant
• James Harden
• Joel Embiid
• Jayson Tatum
• Luka Doncic
• Chris Paul
• Russell Westbrook
• Kevin Garnett
• Dwyane Wade
• Damian Lillard
• Stephen Curry
• Tracy McGrady
• Dirk Nowitzki
• Amar'e Stoudemire
• Paul George
• Kobe Bryant
• Devin Booker
• Steve Nash
• Kawhi Leonard
• Giannis Antetokounmpo
• Tony Parker
• Jimmy Butler
• Nikola Jokic
• Marc Gasol
• Ben Wallace

Honestly I would add a lot more guys that list.

Grant Hill
Arenas
Ray Allen
John Wall
Kyrie
Deron Williams
Donovan
Gobert
Webber
Melo
Pau
Manu
Beal
Yao
Brand
Roy
Joe Johnson
Paul Pierce
Klay
Vince Carter
Brand
Marion

 

[idiot]

Honestly I would add a lot more guys that list.

Grant Hill
Arenas
Ray Allen
John Wall
Kyrie
Deron Williams
Donovan
Gobert
Webber
Melo
Pau
Manu
Beal
Yao
Brand
Roy
Joe Johnson
Paul Pierce
Klay
Vince Carter
Brand
Marion

Yeah, this is where there's going to be some differences of opinion. To me, although some of these guys you list are very close, none of them are really the player that you can have as the number one option as a title-contender. Most of them could get you to the conference finals as the #1 guy in theory (though most didn't even prove that in reality), but I don't see a clear #1 guy in a finals contender in these names.

 

[Coach Ellis]

Here's my list:

• Shaquille O'Neal
• Allen Iverson
• Tim Duncan
• LeBron James
• Dwight Howard
• Derrick Rose
• Blake Griffin
• Anthony Davis
• Jason Kidd
• Alonzo Mourning
• Gary Payton
• Kevin Durant
• James Harden
• Joel Embiid
• Jayson Tatum
• Luka Doncic
• Chris Paul
• Russell Westbrook
• Kevin Garnett
• Dwyane Wade
• Damian Lillard
• Stephen Curry
• Tracy McGrady
• Dirk Nowitzki
• Amar'e Stoudemire
• Paul George
• Kobe Bryant
• Devin Booker
• Steve Nash
• Kawhi Leonard
• Giannis Antetokounmpo
• Tony Parker
• Jimmy Butler
• Nikola Jokic
• Marc Gasol
• Ben Wallace

Thank you! I appreciate the follow up.

 

[The Midnight]

Honestly I would add a lot more guys that list.

Grant Hill
Arenas
Ray Allen
John Wall
Kyrie
Deron Williams
Donovan
Gobert
Webber
Melo
Pau
Manu
Beal
Yao
Brand
Roy
Joe Johnson
Paul Pierce
Klay
Vince Carter
Brand
Marion

Wow he needs to add those players to the list.

 

[The Midnight]

Yeah, this is where there's going to be some differences of opinion. To me, although some of these guys you list are very close, none of them are really the player that you can have as the number one option as a title-contender. Most of them could get you to the conference finals as the #1 guy in theory (though most didn't even prove that in reality), but I don't see a clear #1 guy in a finals contender in these names.

You missed out on quite a few players my man. Paul Pierce? Kyrie? Pau? Ray Allen?

Those players might not be able to single-handedly win it but they’re vital piece.

 

[idiot]

You missed out on quite a few players my man. Paul Pierce? Kyrie? Pau? Ray Allen?

Those players might not be able to single-handedly win it but they’re vital piece.

Yes, vital pieces, but not first fiddles (in my view). The difference between THAT GUY and really important guys. If we open it up to this level of player, then I think we're saying essentially that Donovan or Rudy would have been enough to have been the centerpiece of a championship team. I don't think they were.

 

[The Midnight]

1st (worst record) =11.2%
2nd = 10.7%
3rd = 10.3%
4th = 9.6%
5th = 8.9%
6th = 8.0%
7th = 7.4%
8th = 6.8%
9th = 6.1%
10th = 5.3%
11th = 4.4%
12th = 4.1%
13th = 3.9%
14th = 3.6%
15th = 3.3%

This tells me we need to "tank" (whatever that means) this year.

Let's be honest here, the chances of Utah getting THAT GUY via Free Agency is what.. 0%?

So getting him through the Draft and Trades are the main ways of getting THAT GUY.

Looking at the odds above it tells me you really want to be in that 1st-6th worst range.

Gives you around 8-11% odds which to me is reasonable. Below that and the odds get really low.

That's why I still think we really need to be top 5 bad this year. It's the perfect year to do this with Gobert and Donovan leaving.

 

[idiot]

This tells me we need to "tank" (whatever that means) this year.

Let's be honest here, the chances of Utah getting THAT GUY via Free Agency is what.. 0%?

So getting him through the Draft and Trades are the main ways of getting THAT GUY.

Looking at the odds above it tells me you really want to be in that 1st-6th worst range.

Gives you around 8-11% odds which to me is reasonable. Below that and the odds get really low.

That's why I still think we really need to be top 5 bad this year. It's the perfect year to do this with Gobert and Donovan leaving.

I can certainly understand this, even if I don't totally agree with it. It's a close enough call in my mind to easily see how you might be right and I might be wrong.

The way I look at it is these odds show how much luck and good fortune is involved in NBA success (along with wise scouting and team-building, because of course one THAT GUY by himself won't even do the trick).

You could do your best to tank for a decade straight and not wind up with THAT GUY. But if the Jazz end up with a lousy record this year, I won't be complaining.