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What does Donovans season actually look like?

oneye

oneye

Well-Known Member
2018 Award Winner
We all love Donovan, we all want to see him be the most successful guy ever, but listening to Locked on Jazz today, I think Locke has some valid points on Donovan. He had such an amazing season last year for a rookie, blew away expectations, and did something very....VERY few players have ever done their rookie year. I think we all (including myself) feel like he is going to take another big jump this season, but I mean that would have to be a tough jump on top of a tough jump he made last season.

I know Donovan is going to be very good. I'm all but certain he is going to be a superstar and I think could even average near 30 ppg some season during his career, I think he has chances at MVP at some point within the next 6 seasons.

I'm simply talking about season 2, realistically what do you actually predict it's going to look like through a not-homer lenses. My homer lenses say he will drastically improve from 3, average 25,4,4.

Looking at the tiny sample size of pre-season, along with last season and most of his career through non-homer lenses, I think the 3 is still going to be something where he has some good nights, and some bad nights and may end up improving his percentage from 3 minimally at least this season. He hasn't shot it all that well in preseason, which yes it's preseason, but those looks should actually be better in preseason when teams aren't playing full throttle. Like I said, love Donovan, think he's a super-star, think he will still improve drastically on a lot of things, but I also wonder if season 2 takes as big of a jump as we are hoping or some are pumping. That doesn't mean a sophomore slump or anything, I don't think pressure gets to him, and I think he will take a step forward, I just wonder how big that step ends up being. The first stretch of the Jazz schedule has a lot of road games and is a pretty tough schedule. This team, and Donovan will be tested again. I think they'll do fine, I just hope we all can be okay, including himself, if Donovan has rough stretches and bad games still during this season. He's a superstar, but to take a giant step again this season would mean he's just ridiculous. Through non-homer lenses I would say 22,3,3 is realistic and just slightly upping his 3 point %.
 
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I think he does something like 23.5 p, 4.5 A, and 4 R on 44/37/82 shooting. I think there will be improvements with him getting to the FT line and slight shooting improvements, but that he will still have some improvement to make on efficiency. If we had a less congested court I think he could push 25 a game.

I could see some here being slightly disappointed given he had such a meteoric rise during his rookie year. I think there will be steady improvement but it might be more nuanced... better playmaker, better defender, less turnovers, better efficiency... but the raw numbers may not differ much from his prior season per-36.
 
oneye said:
Through non-homer lenses I would say 22,3,3 is realistic and just slightly upping his 3 point %
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I get the tempered expectations. But he got more assists and rebounds than that last year, and once he settled into the offense about 10 games in it felt like he was getting about 25 a game on average. Once he started taking off his PPG was super low and he was constantly raising it, but there should be no learning curve this year, so he can start well and hopefully keep it consistent.

Last year was amazing, just doing the same or maybe even a bit worse than last year might be a reasonable expectation. But I really don’t see much that seems like an anomaly from last year (example: Tatum hit 43% from 3 last year which is a ridiculous number). Maybe his insane finishes at the rim? But at some point you just have to admit the guy is great at that, the skill won’t disappear. Defenses were keyed on him for over half the season last year, so that shouldn’t be an issue.

Idk, realistic expectations are good. And I think this year efficiency will be better than raw numbers. But I have every confidence in the kid continuing to get better. I’m buying Mitchell stock. Lots of it.
 
Bawse Dawg said:
I get the tempered expectations. But he got more assists and rebounds than that last year, and once he settled into the offense about 10 games in it felt like he was getting about 25 a game on average. Once he started taking off his PPG was super low and he was constantly raising it, but there should be no learning curve this year, so he can start well and hopefully keep it consistent.

Last year was amazing, just doing the same or maybe even a bit worse than last year might be a reasonable expectation. But I really don’t see much that seems like an anomaly from last year (example: Tatum hit 43% from 3 last year which is a ridiculous number). Maybe his insane finishes at the rim? But at some point you just have to admit the guy is great at that, the skill won’t disappear. Defenses were keyed on him for over half the season last year, so that shouldn’t be an issue.

Idk, realistic expectations are good. And I think this year efficiency will be better than raw numbers. But I have every confidence in the kid continuing to get better. I’m buying Mitchell stock. Lots of it.
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Agreed, Mitchell stock is only going to get more valuable. I think we will certainly get the Donovan from the second half of last season, I’m just saying I think some expect a mammoth jump from that and I think it may be more gradual than some expect. You’re probably right in the fact he’ll average more assists and rebounds than I predicted there.
 
His rookie year was sensational and unique, I don't remember anything like it. He outplayed the reigning MVP and knocked him out. He experienced so much on and off the court in a relatively short time. There is much more to do and I'm sure with his work ethic, determination and intelligence he'll keep moving. It's just when he arrives there too fast I hope he does not end up a Martin Eden. Dude also seems to have a superior real life IQ and you know, one needs to be a bit less brainy to be able to keep locked in for 100 freaking games every year. First world problems, yes, and we have the coaches that would be able to address such potential ontological issues but it's a valid concern nonetheless.
 
Take last season and knock the first two months off of his statistical average. I expect that to be the floor.
 
I think He'll improve on his drive and kick, draw more defenders to open things up for the three and make those around him better. More than anything I'm with tfivas, I hope he can stay healthy.
 
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