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Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by Stoked, Nov 6, 2012.
What, if any fallout will come from a:
only obama loss would cause any fallout .......
Also if Romney were to win a Storm Sandy affected state such as New Jersey that he wouldn't normally win?
Stoked I'm not sure what will bring our country closer together other than a world war. So maybe it is better if Romney is elected
I disagree KK. I think most people and companies are very reactionary. Correct me if I'm wrong small business owners here on this site, but I feel like Obamacare has hurt your small businesses more than helped. I also doubt the economy will improve much over the next few years because corporations will have little faith to hire due to his re-election. I'm not saying none will. Look at GM but few and far between will. It's silly in many ways really. If they're making the money and need employees, they should hire. But I think they'll still run very guarded. On the other hand, if Mitt won, I think companies would feel a breathe of fresh air and be more likely to hire a little more.
So this is the "fallout" if Obama wins. I also think the housing market will remain stagnant and that rates will lower even more, possibly approaching the 2's on a 30 year fixed at some point.
Preppie Riots if Romney loses. If you don't own a Starbucks, Nieman Marcus or Apple Store, I'd board up your windows now.
I think that lawsuits are highly likely.
I think riots/flash mobs are likely if Romney wins.
I think increased hording and EOW Prepping is likely if Obama wins.
I think war with Syria and possibly Iran is likely by early February regardless who wins.
I was thinking more along the lines of riots etc .......
If Romney loses it's basically the status quo so I don't know what possible fall-out that would be. Besides, other than a week in October that's always seemed like the inevitable outcome if you were paying attention to poll analysis.
If Obama loses we're going to have to have a serious discussion about the how polls are conducted. Oh, and many liberals will be promptly made to eat their pledges to move to Canada.
Lawsuits? Please expound.
Lawsuits are already happening in FL and PA.
From what I am reading the polls this time around have been based on 2008 turnout and that is not acutally the case. If that is true the Obama has a very real chance of losing this.
This morning NBC (or another talking head) was laying out scenarios where the election came down to Ohio or Florida and the margin of victory would be less than the number of outstanding ballots (absintee and provisional ballots). They suggested that at that point both parties would begin immediate legal actions to block certain ballots from being counted. And that the entire process would be a series of suits/complaints and appeals.
They said in a doomsday scenario in Ohio it could take up to 30 days to determine a winner, most of that time would be waiting for lawsuits.
Ugh...so we're gonna have a close election that involves lawsuits that aren't resolved up until early December, at which point Romney will win, and our worst enemies will flip their **** that a multi-wived Mormon is our next President, and WW3 or the end of the world begins a couple weeks later. Hence, 12/21/12. **** us.
Link? Although I guess we'll know in a few hours anyway.
In any event, my present understanding is that different polling firms are using different turnout models that make different assumptions. This part of the reason poll averaging is a thing to begin with and part of the reason that different polling firms have persistent house effects that can be measured and corrected for. In any event, if it is the case that polling firms use the last general election turn-out model every new election then we should have enough election data going back to 1968 to understand how that effects projections and correct for it using regression analysis.
TL;DR: I think this is grasping at straws.
You'll be crying in the bathroom?
Oh please. Will you be out burning tires if Obama loses?
My dream scenario is for an Obama win causing a serious stock market correction and even lower drop in 30 year rates.
Honestly I think the fallout will be a big meh for the most part. I can see possible demonstrations in a few majority black areas if it's close (it would have to be close for Romney to win) and there's any hint of funny business in the vote counting.