Which Will Be Easier: Competing for a Title

[SoberasHotRod]

It won’t be full on tank the entire year, but it also won’t be pedal to the metal win as much as possible for 2/3 of the season. But for that last third they will do the same thing as last year.

We also just don’t have the same options to win if we tried. Half our roster was on the summer league team. He will have to go to youth because the number of vets is significantly lower than previous years.

The main thing that should help us in the tank race is the fact that we play in the West vs East. We should have 6-10 less winnable games vs all the Eastern conference teams playing each other 3-4 times a year.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Jazz land somewhere between 6th and 8th with normal health as is. A key injury and you are bottom 5… same with a key trade. Not ideal and I’d try to game the system more but we are likely bottom 2 in the west unless SA stutters out of the gate. The presence of the play in will entice the East team like Atlanta, Chicago, Toronto, Charlotte to not wrap it up early.

6-8 provides okay odds. Personally I’d move Kessler or Sexton and you’d be set but I don’t know what the offers are out there.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

The main thing that should help us in the tank race is the fact that we play in the West vs East. We should have 6-10 less winnable games vs all the Eastern conference teams playing each other 3-4 times a year.

And just the playin race out east. Someone has to be 9/10 and 11/12 won’t be far behind.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

If I had to guess, they will give the team a legit shot. If they fail, then Lauri will be on the "Hey, we need you to sit, we arent going to chase for the 10th seed" type of approach.

But if Utah comes out locked in???? I dont see them pulling the plug, unless a team(s) decide they want Clarkson/Collins based off their early season performances. Maybe Utah would be inclined to just offload them, so they wouldnt try to haggle over an asking price outside of 2nds/expirings (but can Danny resist haggling?).

All that being said, I doubt Utah will be that good. I just think it's going to be good enough to where it's going to be more 6-9 seed territory, and that's with blatant end of year tanking.

But I really like Egor Demin. But I dont think Egor Demin is this magical prospect who turns into a top 20 player in 4 years and solves all the Jazz fan's hopes of this mythical player who makes it OK to make winning roster moves.

As currently constructed I think our best and most reasonable expectation is the 6th pick. I'm excited because I think adding the 6th pick from this draft could be a really good player. Obviously I hope we get a better pick than that. Like you, I just have a hard time imaging the front office going in to the off season next year with a team bad enough to get the 6th pick, and thinking now that we have Egor Denim or Hugo Gonzalez, now we're ready to forgo a chance at Boozer/etc. and potentially lose out a 9th pick in the 2026 draft because we put our chips in too soon.

 

[HermanG]

Yeah, that's a good point that I recognized. Although second year guys aren't always much better than rookies, so it's really how much better are Key and Hendricks going to be in their 3rd year than this year. You could kind of make that point this year too though, with how much better is Kessler going to be this year than last year. We'll potentially have 3 rookies again in 2025, so you can also make the argument that we just play the rookies a bunch in 2026 to make the team worse. Our youth should be collectively better next year than this year, but I'm not sure by how much and if it offsets the point of us being able to be bad in 2026.

I did say, "able to" though and the FO can always easily make the team worse.

Yeah theres no guarantees but guys who pop and end up being good usually take a first notable leap somewhere around years 2-4.

We all hope that happens, and if Key and at least 1 of TH or Kessler level up by then we will be far from a tanking team (unless Sexton and Lauri are both traded).

 

[KqWIN]

The main thing that should help us in the tank race is the fact that we play in the West vs East. We should have 6-10 less winnable games vs all the Eastern conference teams playing each other 3-4 times a year.

It also affects when you may decide to pull the plug. The longer you’re hanging in on the play in/playoff race the longer you are likely to compete hard. For these tanking East teams, they could very well be in the play in race. Right now, Vegas has the 10th east seed at 30.5 wins. For the west the 10th seed is 43.5 wins.

If you go 15-25 in the first 40 in the West you are likely already out of any kind of competitive goal. It would take a huge comeback (which does happen) but that is so hard to overcome and it’s much easier to pull the plug. In the East, you might be in a play in position.

 

[KqWIN]

Jazz land somewhere between 6th and 8th with normal health as is. A key injury and you are bottom 5… same with a key trade. Not ideal and I’d try to game the system more but we are likely bottom 2 in the west unless SA stutters out of the gate. The presence of the play in will entice the East team like Atlanta, Chicago, Toronto, Charlotte to not wrap it up early.

6-8 provides okay odds. Personally I’d move Kessler or Sexton and you’d be set but I don’t know what the offers are out there.

I don't know if "normal health" includes tanking at the end of the year again, but I still struggle to find enough teams to make 6-8 normal. I think we can finish there, but it would take really good outcomes for some players on roster. I see two teams that are clearly worse, and then we're in a group of 4-5 teams where I can't say we're clearly better or worse than them given all possible outcomes.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Of course we see a path. But if you do this thing with every team where you look at everything so optimistically, they all have a path.

You definitely cant do it for the Wizards, Blazers, or Nets. I will be floored if those arent the bottom 3 teams by a healthy margin for the entire season.

Everyone else, yeah, you can probably have an optimistic path for, but Utah has proven they are capable of playing at a high level under Hardy for stretches before being dismantled from within.

 

[KqWIN]

You definitely cant do it for the Wizards, Blazers, or Nets. I will be floored if those arent the bottom 3 teams by a healthy margin for the entire season.

Everyone else, yeah, you can probably have an optimistic path for, but Utah has proven they are capable of playing at a high level under Hardy for stretches before being dismantled from within.

Wizards and Nets are in their own tier. Blazers, sure you can. They have more vets than us and have plenty of young players that can make a jump. Everyone is expecting them to make a trade of course, but if we're talking about as constructed I can't see how they are clearly worse than us. They've got a lot of guys and also a lot of guys who could make leaps.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Wizards and Nets are in their own tier. Blazers, sure you can. They have more vets than us and have plenty of young players that can make a jump. Everyone is expecting them to make a trade of course, but if we're talking about as constructed I can't see how they are clearly worse than us. They've got a lot of guys and also a lot of guys who could make leaps.

The Blazers are potentially the worst team in the NBA. Bottom 5 coach. Terrible vets. Maybe Simons is good, IDK. Their rookie contract players are *** (Clingan might be the truth, but he's blocked by Ayton, who sucks and Scoot likely has another year of being trash). None of their players even fit together, so if they are accidentally decent and overperform, it wont synergize. I know this board loves Deni, but Deni isnt making a difference with this roster.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

I would put the Nets ahead of the Blazers quite easily. I actually just looked at the Nets roster and can make a much better case for their overachievement than the Blazers.

 

[whatthe]

the Jazz can only get "the guy" through the draft or a great trade. Trading for Ingram is a great value trade and I wouldn't pass it up. I would however trade all our high level experienced competitors except Lauri once we obtain Ingram. Kessler, Sexton, etc. I would trade them away.