I changed my vote to Tre Johnson because he's probably better in Will Hardy's system, and he's better at passing the ball. That's going to matter when the Jazz add another star in next year's draft.
Who Do You Prefer Among Ace Bailey, Tre Johnson & V.J. Edgecombe? (Poll)
- Thread starter Ferguson_Mellochill
- Start date
There are a crazy number of votes in this poll. It's nice to have so much engagement right now.
Having Bailey and Hendricks for rim-defending help would be a luxury.
fishonjazz
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I love how it's pretty spread out with the votes as well.
I thought ace would run away with it.
Isaiah 1:13
Well-Known Member
Doesn’t much matter as none of em be available at five. ESPN has us taking Fears - another six foot nothing guard, yeah that’s what we need.
Why nobody’s talking about Collin Murray Boyle for us??? Let’s draft to need for a change!
Why nobody’s talking about Collin Murray Boyle for us??? Let’s draft to need for a change!
Udidthizz
Well-Known Member
If none of them are available at 5, either Flagg or Harper is. So that would be a pretty decent outcome. 0% of that happening ofcourse.Doesn’t much matter as none of em be available at five. ESPN has us taking Fears - another six foot nothing guard, yeah that’s what we need.
Why nobody’s talking about Collin Murray Boyle for us??? Let’s draft to need for a change!
And I'm ok with drafting for need at 21, but at 5 you have to take the best available player.
Fears is 6'2.5 without shoes. So he's a 6'4 PG.....
To me that's exactly average starting PG height and he's a bit below average length wise with a 6'5.25 wingspan
Not ideal size, but certainly not undersized.
I probably have Fears 8th right now, but somebody is going to have to make the case for him so I will.
You’ll often hear something like Tre scored 20ppg against a tough schedule, don’t overthink it. That same line of logic applies to Fears. Fears scored at the same rate and efficiency as Tre. When you combine scoring and playmaking duties his offensive load was bigger than any freshman, and that includes Ace and Tre. This holds up against top 50 competition as well where Fears has the highest USG amongst freshman. And despite the high usage, his TS is still the same as the other Freshman in this group. So if you’re going to give credit to others for their scoring volume, you have to also give him credit and he probably deserves the most credit in terms of shouldering the biggest offensive load.
The he gets there is also much different than Ace and Tre. Those two make tough jump shots and have a less than ideal shot distribution, but they are very good at converting tougher shots. Fears is the opposite. He gets to the easy shots on the court, but he doesn’t make them as much. Still, this equates to the same amount of efficiency despite only shooting 53% at the rim and 28% from 3. This is the power of a good shot distribution and getting to the FT line. His free throw rate is sky high in addition to a very high rim rate. He touches the paint easier than anyone in the draft besides Harper, and this is thanks to having what I consider to be the best handle in the draft.
So on one hand you have guys that score the tough way, and then you have Fears who scores the easy way. Which is actually better? IMO, Fears is the actual boom or bust prospect in this draft. Ace has so many avenues to contribute and his potential is spread out in a lot of areas. He may disappoint, but he won’t be out of the league. VJ and Kon have role player written all over them. Tre will at least be a contributor as shooter. But Fears is more up in the air in the sense that if he can’t make his jumper, he might be out of the league.
But in terms of upside potential, Fears may have the most realistic route. In order to become a star, he needs to make more of the shots he takes. While this is certainly no guarantee, players improve their shooting all the time. This happens more often than the reverse happening. Players rarely improve their rim rate or free throw rate in a significant way. Counting on a shooting improvement is more likely than counting on an increased rim attack IMO, and Fears has some good indicators. He’s an 85% free throw shooter, and if you look at NBA players you’ll find that for every 10 players that shoot even 80%, about 8-9 of them can shoot. So yeah, it is a powerful indicator. If he ended up not being able to shoot with that FT percentage he would be an outlier.
I’m gonna be honest, I am less high on him mostly because I think Kas is just better. But he should not be an afterthought around here and should be in the conversation for too 5 or higher.
You’ll often hear something like Tre scored 20ppg against a tough schedule, don’t overthink it. That same line of logic applies to Fears. Fears scored at the same rate and efficiency as Tre. When you combine scoring and playmaking duties his offensive load was bigger than any freshman, and that includes Ace and Tre. This holds up against top 50 competition as well where Fears has the highest USG amongst freshman. And despite the high usage, his TS is still the same as the other Freshman in this group. So if you’re going to give credit to others for their scoring volume, you have to also give him credit and he probably deserves the most credit in terms of shouldering the biggest offensive load.
The he gets there is also much different than Ace and Tre. Those two make tough jump shots and have a less than ideal shot distribution, but they are very good at converting tougher shots. Fears is the opposite. He gets to the easy shots on the court, but he doesn’t make them as much. Still, this equates to the same amount of efficiency despite only shooting 53% at the rim and 28% from 3. This is the power of a good shot distribution and getting to the FT line. His free throw rate is sky high in addition to a very high rim rate. He touches the paint easier than anyone in the draft besides Harper, and this is thanks to having what I consider to be the best handle in the draft.
So on one hand you have guys that score the tough way, and then you have Fears who scores the easy way. Which is actually better? IMO, Fears is the actual boom or bust prospect in this draft. Ace has so many avenues to contribute and his potential is spread out in a lot of areas. He may disappoint, but he won’t be out of the league. VJ and Kon have role player written all over them. Tre will at least be a contributor as shooter. But Fears is more up in the air in the sense that if he can’t make his jumper, he might be out of the league.
But in terms of upside potential, Fears may have the most realistic route. In order to become a star, he needs to make more of the shots he takes. While this is certainly no guarantee, players improve their shooting all the time. This happens more often than the reverse happening. Players rarely improve their rim rate or free throw rate in a significant way. Counting on a shooting improvement is more likely than counting on an increased rim attack IMO, and Fears has some good indicators. He’s an 85% free throw shooter, and if you look at NBA players you’ll find that for every 10 players that shoot even 80%, about 8-9 of them can shoot. So yeah, it is a powerful indicator. If he ended up not being able to shoot with that FT percentage he would be an outlier.
I’m gonna be honest, I am less high on him mostly because I think Kas is just better. But he should not be an afterthought around here and should be in the conversation for too 5 or higher.
#NoFears
Good summary of my thoughts on this. Thanks.
Perfectly stated, including and importantly the preamble.
Basketball Novice
Active Member
I can only see Fears as a primary on ball guard. There is no other path for him. He gets to the rim so easily, it's a bit crazy. Taking into account both his age and that the NBA is more spaced out; Fears could really break out at the NBA level. More than anything, he looks like a natural out there, moving and slicing up defenses. I can't imagine any of the other guards ever looking as smooth as Fears.
It's a trait that all the great guards share, just the ability to play at your own pace and make everything look easy. And Fears has that.
So many interesting prospects and we only have 2 picks in the first.
It's a trait that all the great guards share, just the ability to play at your own pace and make everything look easy. And Fears has that.
So many interesting prospects and we only have 2 picks in the first.
Isaiah 1:13
Well-Known Member
Harper maybe, obviously not Flagg. IMurray Boyle would give us some serious street cred in the paint, and he’s got an incredibly high ceiling imo. I just dam sure don’t want Fears!
efukillar
New Member
If Jazz picks VJ, they can form a strong defensive line with Collier-VJ-Hendriks-Markkanen-Kessler.
If they pick Tre? Collier will lead the game, Markkanen and Hendriks (or Filipowski, Bryce, etc.) will shoot 3-pointers from the corner/elbow, and Tre will be the ace in between. He can score from anywhere.
If they pick Ace... First, Utah needs to clean up its forwards. That's okay. The frontcourt of Ace-Markkanen-Kessler looks pretty good. The backcourt looks a bit weak, so they should clean up the forwards and find a guard prospect.
If they pick Tre? Collier will lead the game, Markkanen and Hendriks (or Filipowski, Bryce, etc.) will shoot 3-pointers from the corner/elbow, and Tre will be the ace in between. He can score from anywhere.
If they pick Ace... First, Utah needs to clean up its forwards. That's okay. The frontcourt of Ace-Markkanen-Kessler looks pretty good. The backcourt looks a bit weak, so they should clean up the forwards and find a guard prospect.
He seems like an elite handles prospect
Shooting guard obviosly.
Collier
Edgecomb / Keyonte
Markkanen / Cody
Filipkowski / Hendrix
Walker
Then we have a problem. Whoever plays the shooting guard should be able to create good shots through dribble penetration, shooting off the dribble and shooting coming off screens. VJ is not good at that. Also, standing at 6'4" with the 6'7" wingspan he is a bit below average for SG and will be at a disadvantage against big SGs. In short, his effectiveness will be diminished, especially if he does not make huge improvements in his handle, shooting off the dribble and step-backs.
Also, if he does play SG with his current limitations it would put extra pressure on the Jazz to find someone who can do the typical SG stuff but at another position, like SF or PG. Edgecombe is a good and likeable player but he is not an easy prospect to build the team with.
If you pick VJ you’re projecting that he could develop his handle and that dribble drive part of his game. You’re banking on his work ethics and the drive to improve.
The same goes with Tre and his defense.