Who would you rather keep, Lauri Markkanen or John Collins? (Please read scenario)

[SoberasHotRod]

It feels like Lauri stock is at an all time low and Collins stock is at an all time high on Jazzfanz. It made me think of this poll question.

The scenario: The Jazz decide that they would like to have one, but only one of Collins or Markkanen next year. They want a play finisher that can help the young guys develop, but not too much talent in order to tank again next year. Assume Collins opts in to his one year $26.6 million dollar contract. (Lauri is making about $50 million per year for 3 more years). Assume that you are getting expiring contracts and draft compensation (whatever you think is fair value) for both of them in a trade.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Lauri, didn't read

 

[KqWIN]

The only situation where I think keeping Lauri is valid is if we land Flagg, and if we land Flagg, I'd probably prefer to trade Lauri anyways.

 

[stormkoopacv03]

I prefer that we keep Lauri. If we land Flagg, I would like to see Lauri and Cooper together, and see how effective they are together.

 

[The Jazz Wonderbra]

The Lauri hate is ridiculous. We WANTED him to have an off season. We WANTED him not to carry the team.

Can you guys not imagine a scenario where we put him in bad spots intentionally? Can you not see that the play around him was piss poor for the first half of the season where he played most of his minutes?

 

[jazznik]

Folks would overreact to that but it is a fair question. Things to consider:

1. In the most recent, 2024/25 season their production has been roughly similar: same PPG, Collins shot and rebounded better, Markkanen had more "gravity" and opened up more opportunities for other players.

2. For his entire career Markkanen has been a player who gets injured a lot: he usually plays <60 games per season. It is certainly a concern.

3. Collins has been getting progressively better last several years, Markkanen has been playing worse and worse for the last two years. These are very different trajectories and we can find excuses for Lauri but there is a non-zero chance that he never returns to his 2022/23 form. (10%? 20%? 30%? ... who knows...)

4. Lauri is probably the third option on a contender. When you play the third option the max it severely limits your roster building: you must find your first or second option in the draft and start competing nwhile this player is still on the rookie contract.

5. However, Lauri is way more flexible in where he can play: he could do SF, PF and some center against certain matchups, while Collins is rarely effective playing outside of the PF position.

People will probably vote based on how certain they are that Lauri could return to his All Star form in the future and maintain it. I honestly do not know.

 

[The Midnight]

I know it’s slow around here during the playoffs, and we need new content to keep us going til the draft…

But this isn’t it.

 

[jazznik]

The Lauri hate is ridiculous. We WANTED him to have an off season. We WANTED him not to carry the team.

Can you guys not imagine a scenario where we put him in bad spots intentionally? Can you not see that the play around him was piss poor for the first half of the season where he played most of his minutes?

You can say the same about Lauri in the last months of the 2022/23: the Jazz were tanking and put him out paired with horrible players. However, Lauri posted 29/9 in March and was scoring 38 and 40 points playing alongside Kessler-Olynyk-Agbaji-THT. He was clearly unable to do it this season despite the fact that Kessler has improved a lot and Collins & Sexton are much, much better players.

 

[jazznik]

Assume Collins opts in to his one year $26.6 million dollar contract. (Lauri is making about $50 million per year for 3 more years). Assume that you are getting expiring contracts and draft compensation (whatever you think is fair value) for both of them in a trade.

IF the Jazz manage to extend Collins for 18-20 million for 3 more years they probably should trade Markkanen: yes, John as the 3rd option is less impactful than Lauri but they can save 28-32 million per year for another impactful player and get some nice package for Lauri. Markkanen is a depreciating asset and if he has another year like that he will quickly become another untradable Atlanta John Collins.

 

[KqWIN]

I don’t consider it Lauri hate to want him gone. If I didn’t think he was good, I wouldn’t mind him staying. Fact is, great players and tanking do not mix. It’s not in anyone’s best interest to continue that partnership. The way I see it, we either torch the prime of his career or he torches our rebuild.

If we get extremely lucky we can maybe have the best of both worlds. Flagg would make it work, but every plan with Flagg works. I don’t really want to test our luck with another tank+Lauri season. Moving forward and going for a Bridges+George type swoop would end in disaster methinks. So a reasonable path forward would be to trade him.

 

[Douchebag K]

Lauri. Not a choice

 

[fishonjazz]

I don’t consider it Lauri hate to want him gone. If I didn’t think he was good, I wouldn’t mind him staying. Fact is, great players and tanking do not mix. It’s not in anyone’s best interest to continue that partnership. The way I see it, we either torch the prime of his career or he torches our rebuild.

If we get extremely lucky we can maybe have the best of both worlds. Flagg would make it work, but every plan with Flagg works. I don’t really want to test our luck with another tank+Lauri season. Moving forward and going for a Bridges+George type swoop would end in disaster methinks. So a reasonable path forward would be to trade him.

Good post

Sent from my OPD2203 using Tapatalk

 

[SoberasHotRod]

I know it’s slow around here during the playoffs, and we need new content to keep us going til the draft…

But this isn’t it.

Eh, I think it's an interesting thought exercise. People might prefer to trade Lauri for a lot of reasons. He will make us too good next year, he will bring back more/better draft picks, his contract is higher risk and prevents us from doing more things longer term, or maybe even they just want him to go to a winning team next year.

I'm honestly surprised at the poll results based on the conversation here in this thread and what has been discussed on Jazzfanz over the past few months.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

The Lauri hate is ridiculous. We WANTED him to have an off season. We WANTED him not to carry the team.

Can you guys not imagine a scenario where we put him in bad spots intentionally? Can you not see that the play around him was piss poor for the first half of the season where he played most of his minutes?

I don't see much Lauri hate. I think there are Lauri concerns, which are valid. He is making 30% of our cap, but didn't play like a 30% of the cap player last year. Personally I tend to agree that he is fine and will be fine when we want to win, but it's fair for people to have concerns.

FWIW, if you think this thread is about Lauri hate, you are wrong.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

Somewhat related, but could someone put together our options for a potential John Collins extension this summer? I don't think I'm necessarily interested in extending Collins, but am just curious what we could offer him.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

My commanding thought on this is that I think Lauri is a special player and someone who could be a difference maker in a playoff series. He might not be the best player, or even a top 30 guy, but his shooting at his size is just a weapon.

Collins is good and seemingly getting better, but hes ceiling isn't being the level of difference maker that Lauri is.

I just don't think you let go of that kind of player if you are trying to build a team.

 

[LogGrad98]

We are talking floor raiser vs ceiling raiser. Ceteris paribus, assuming we get enough out of this off-season to solve getting into the playoffs in the first place, then you are better off with the ceiling raiser in those situations that might elevate you to a playoff series win. But if the goal is just getting to the playoffs and that is in question, you should go with the floor raiser. I'm exercising some hope we buck the trend and get a top pick and that for the next 3-4 years we can get enough in young hungry guys to off-set the salary hit and say you keep Lauri for those times he will make a big difference in the playoffs, provided he's healthy during the playoffs.

And if the end-goal for the franchise is just getting back to the playoffs, then they can just **** right the hell off.

 

[HermanG]

One argument here (which I have also said) is that if we get Flagg we must keep Lauri. I do still stand by that but its also worthwhile noting that if we get him we have a big frontcourt roster crunch looming. Same applies to Bailey, if he is the BPA we end up with. We may also face some pressure to upgrade our backcourt with either one of those two, so that we give them proper tools to have a successful rookie campaign (on a personal level, regardless of team win/loss record).

On the other hand if we end up with Harper, VJ, Tre or Kas... then it would probably be a great start to their career to be able to play with the trio of Kessler, Lauri and Collins right out of the gate.

When we also account for the probable trade value... I say we should keep Lauri in every scenario EXCEPT if we land Bailey. At that point I'm kinda more on board with the idea of trading him.

 

[Thee Idiotic Minivan K]

I’ve gone back and fourth on this. Part of me wants to trade Lauri simply because of his contract and age, yes he’s only 27 but we have a long road to championship status and that’s all I care about. Trading him ensures we get another shot at an elite level player next year to help build a championship contender team over the next seven or eight years. And frankly I’d like to get rid of Collins regardless of what happens with Lauri.

If we keep Lauri, can we still get a top 3-5 pick where there is some elite level prospects? Does us keeping Lauri mean we get between 6-8 where we just miss out. Also having that 50 million off the books helps us get better defense and role players that fit championship culture. At this point I only care about championships and not just being in that convo. If that means trading all the vets then that’s what I’m doing even if that means we suck the next 5 years.

 

[Thee Idiotic Minivan K]

The Lauri hate is ridiculous. We WANTED him to have an off season. We WANTED him not to carry the team.

Can you guys not imagine a scenario where we put him in bad spots intentionally? Can you not see that the play around him was piss poor for the first half of the season where he played most of his minutes?

What’s ridiculous is you think there is Lauri hate other than the professional trolls. Sometimes you take heart out of it and make the business decision. I’m not sure we can build a legitimate championship team with Lauri here. I think we can trade him get more picks, and not only add another elite prospect to grow with hopefully a top 3 prospect in this years draft but build around them with championship cultural role players for a complete team, and I think that means Lauri Collins and Sexton are gone. If I can find the right situation I’m doing that with zero hesitation.