Will there be American invasion in Syria?

[ema]

Is Syria more prepared? Iraq was the world's 4 largest military power at one point if I remember correctly (something I think I heard somewhere, could be wrong). They too had been supplied by Russia.

I think you remember wrong. That's impossible.

 

[ema]

It is so much more complicated than this.

Here is a plausible scenario that I see:


Saudia Arabia and Qatar flood in war materiel to the rebels. Turkey goes after the Kurdish regions.

Turkey won't go after Kurdish regions. There is a peace ongoing between Kurdish and Turkish people. Such a move would curse it forever. And Turkey would definitely be disintegrated. It's the worst move one can imagine for Turkey.

 

[Gameface]

I think you remember wrong. That's impossible.

Back when they were flexing their muscle invading Iran, Kuwait, etc. and using chemical weapons both at home and against their foreign enemies they had a very large standing military. The first gulf war greatly reduced their military and the sanctions that followed made it difficult to build it back up again. I'm not talking about how powerful they were in 2003, but in the late 80s.

 

[Stoked]

I don't think it spirals out of control like that. I think the world superpowers are happy to play in the sandbox and keep the stakes low in that regard so that their home soil is not threatened. I think we all know that everybody loses if the world superpowers go at each other directly.

We all lose is correct. But is Russia willing to let it's only real direct partner int he middle east, Syria (only naval post Russia has access to in the mediteranean is in Syria) be taken away by its biggest rival?

Can America resist its historic desire to protect Israel?

Can China resist the chance to reclaim taiwan which it view as a rebel province?

Can North Korea resist the chance for, as it sees it, freedom and to end the suffering of its people?

Can India keep the already heating up boarder with Pakistan form full on conflict?


As Duck Rogers said to many sides, pieces in place and tensions for nothing to happen. Once something does how far does it spiral? I doubt my above scenario is likely. In fact it is very unlikely. But as I said the pieces in my scenario are already all in place. The events in my scenario require no moving of forces or build up. They are already in place and waiting.

 

[Beantown]

There are some very sad videos of that chemical attack going around. Its just shocking to and doesn't seem real. So many dead children. I can't even imagine. I am so thankful and blessed to be living in this country. My heart aches for those people.

 

[ema]

One thing makes Turkey's position critical is the recently established radar base at Kürecik in Turkey by the USA. It is meant to protect Israel and Europe from a possible Iran and Syrian attack. Iran have openly said that in a possible war with Israel they would target Kürecik radar base too. Actually they condemned the construction of the base and it was serious political
altercation between Turkey and Iran.

The radar base is equipped by the latest technology and can detect anything from Iran and Syria. Israil even apologized from Turkey for the Mavi Marmara event for this radar base.

 

[ema]

Back when they were flexing their muscle invading Iran, Kuwait, etc. and using chemical weapons both at home and against their foreign enemies they had a very large standing military. The first gulf war greatly reduced their military and the sanctions that followed made it difficult to build it back up again. I'm not talking about how powerful they were in 2003, but in the late 80s.

Yep you're right, they always had large army, actually they still have a large army but 4th sounded too high to me. Maybe it was I don't know much about that times.

 

[Stoked]

Turkey won't go after Kurdish regions. There is a peace ongoing between Kurdish and Turkish people. Such a move would curse it forever. And Turkey would definitely be disintegrated. It's the worst move one can imagine for Turkey.

In this scenario can you guarantee that the Kurds won't see an opportunity to carve out a small country of their own? Or that Turkey will not see a chance to once and for all remove a long time thorn in its side?

 

[Stoked]

Back when they were flexing their muscle invading Iran, Kuwait, etc. and using chemical weapons both at home and against their foreign enemies they had a very large standing military. The first gulf war greatly reduced their military and the sanctions that followed made it difficult to build it back up again. I'm not talking about how powerful they were in 2003, but in the late 80s.

Two man differnces I see.

Syria is one of the worlds largest holders of chemical and biological weapons. More than Iraq

Syria has a much more advanced air defense than Iraq did. Such as Russia currently supplying them with advanced surface to air missile batteries.

 

[Gameface]

We all lose is correct. But is Russia willing to let it's only real direct partner int he middle east, Syria (only naval post Russia has access to in the mediteranean is in Syria) be taken away by its biggest rival?

Can America resist its historic desire to protect Israel?

Can China resist the chance to reclaim taiwan which it view as a rebel province?

Can North Korea resist the chance for, as it sees it, freedom and to end the suffering of its people?

Can India keep the already heating up boarder with Pakistan form full on conflict?


As Duck Rogers said to many sides, pieces in place and tensions for nothing to happen. Once something does how far does it spiral? I doubt my above scenario is likely. In fact it is very unlikely. But as I said the pieces in my scenario are already all in place. The events in my scenario require no moving of forces or build up. They are already in place and waiting.

Russia will take the loss of a satellite alliance over war with the U.S., yes.

Israel can defend itself.

China is patient. They haven't taken Taiwan yet, they aren't going to take it unless they can do it without creating a larger conflict. They need their partnership with the U.S., at least for now.

North Korea has nothing to gain unless WWIII actually breaks out. Anything less and all they can do is break South Koreas toys and kill people. They would quickly be smacked back into their place and all the worse for wear.

The India Pakistan thing, I'm not familiar with current events there if things have changed considerably, but I don't think they are going to take unnecessary chances.

For all this to happen the dominoes have to start falling. I think the U.S., Russia, China, and European powers are going to prop up those dominoes as much as possible. For the larger conflict to break out one of those majors powers needs to want it to break out. They have to see an opportunity for gain. Right now there is nothing but loss to be had.

 

[ema]

The worst thing about this kind of wars is, it really really feeds the terrorism. It creates and feeds it. So many people will do suffer during the war but so many will do too after the war.

 

[leftyjace]

My question is, where are the arab nations in this? They're Syria's next door neighbors. Why aren't they stepping in? Why does it take western powers to jump in? Sheesh.