no. im not saying that. i personally dont see greatness rigjt now in any of them. key has been very good at times, but he is not a natural passer, hes streaky as bacon and he has no defense at all. moreover, it is just incredibly hard to convince free agents to come to utah. so our best option right now is the 2025 draft.
Would you rather....
- Thread starter HermanG
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didn't even have to look at who was hidden from my view to know who you were talking to.
Handlogten's Heros
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Tough question. I'm not sure. In this scenario do we get the 8-10th pick or just the 8-10th odds and still a minor chance at jumping to top 4? Is this pre-lotto or post-lotto?
OP says odds. For anyone wondering:
Top 3 Lotto position:
Top 1: 14%
Top 4: 48-52%
8-10 odds
Top 1: 3-6%
Top 4: 14-26%
The main difference is that Sexton shoots and scores more (and more efficiently) with Kessler, but he gets more assists with Collins. Just the nature of Collins taking up more usage than Kessler. I think it's a good sign that Sexton can scale up the playmaking or scoring regardless of who he's playing with and adjust. Both combos lead to good overall efficiency regardless of how the usage split is between the combos. Honestly, everything just points to Sexton being extremely good....it's just a matter of doing it over a more extended period of time to make people believers.
Numbers aside.....Hardy doesn't run a ton of PnR. He usually sticks that big on the baseline and hovers them between the corner and dunker spot and Collins is a lot better at that. I feel like using Collins as a roll man is kind of an untapped area of potential as he is still one of the best in the league at it. I would also be interested to see Sexton in more of a two man game with Lauri at the top. I think Sexton has been in a great position to succeed teammate wise, but Hardy could probably cater to him even more.
Moving back to the theme of thread, I think if we did surprise it's likely a result of Sexton leveling up and becoming that all star level player. I don't think we are worse off because we discovered Lauri and he made it difficult to tank. Likewise, if we discover that Sexton is actually an all star level player, I don't think we are worse off.
seattlejazzfan
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i would hate for all of the six to look like garbage. especially key, williams and collier. so i voted 8-10 for purposes of the poll.
however reality is that the rookies and 2nd year guys leveling up and still getting a top 3 spot are not mutually exclusive. not an either/or situation at all. they could all look really good and the jazz still have a bottom 3 record in the league. whether the jazz end up in that 8-10 range (or worse) again depends on how much playing time the veterans get and how healthy they stay.
tl;dr, the jazz need a top 3 pick this year AND they need most of their young guys to show promise/improvement.
however reality is that the rookies and 2nd year guys leveling up and still getting a top 3 spot are not mutually exclusive. not an either/or situation at all. they could all look really good and the jazz still have a bottom 3 record in the league. whether the jazz end up in that 8-10 range (or worse) again depends on how much playing time the veterans get and how healthy they stay.
tl;dr, the jazz need a top 3 pick this year AND they need most of their young guys to show promise/improvement.
Yeah but the poll isn't pick, it's pre lottery position.
You could finish with the 3rd worst record, have all the young guys look mediocre, and still draft 8th.
That's why I voted the 8-10 option. Give me the certainty that something has gone right and hope for lotto luck vs guys looking bad and just having a slightly higher % at lotto luck
I dont see how that is possible barring a major injury to Lauri. At least its much more improbable than OP choices.
Current win total lines predicts us to win 7 more wins than the 3rd worst team, Blazers. Nets and Wiz are even worse.
So if the young guys look better than expected common sense logic should tell you that +6 wins is much much more likely than -7 wins.
Step-Back Lauri
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I can't answer this, bc both leveling up and struggling are such arbitrary concepts. Probably the only reason to risk losing the 1st round pick Is if Lauri takes another major leap and looks like a top ten player. Not impossible but unlikely.
seattlejazzfan
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fair point.
Handlogten's Heros
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Ahhh... saw it in the second post. I think I would take the rookies and young players taking the leap and just hope to get really lucky. There is a chance a guy could still pop even if they sucked this year but if they took big leaps then it might mean their trajectory is high enough to give up the better odds. Gonna have to thread the needle, catch lightening in a bottle, etc to win a title so landing top 4 with long odds and having good young guys is that kind of high ceiling type outcome we need. Striking out on top 4 isn't a death knell either. I think this draft will produce an all-star or two outside the top 5. Maybe fringe all-stars as that bar keeps getting higher.
This is a good point to bring up. Young players are on a different scale and can still "look good" while losing. For example, I think Key's rookie season exceeded all expectations and yet he was one of the most negative players in the league last year. I think I season could be similar to SAS last season, it seems as though our mentality is the same. The Spurs focused on development. Their young guys didn't look horrible, but they still only won 22 games. That's just the nature of playing for development. There's going to be guys playing in outsized roles, lineups that don't necessarily make sense in the short term, and guys consistently getting minutes despite poor play. The Jazz are different because they have proven vets, but like you said, it's really a matter of how much PT they're getting. Given the fact that we shut them down when the incentives were lower, I feel fairly comfortable in thinking that we will once again shut them down and more likely than not that will come earlier.