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Jazz Defensive on/off court ratings - Particularly Deron Williams

unluckyseventeen said:
With the way he's been pouting and electing to shoot jumpers instead of get to the rim, it seems a little more like complacency, to me.
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I was trying to give him the benefit of the doubt, and nurse my denial because you are probably right.
 
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Those are unadjusted ratings, kicky. Another words while Deron Williams is guarding Chris Paul, Earl Watson is guarding Jason Hart. Ok extreme example, but you get the point. Although Earl holds up very well on adjusted +/- as well, so he is still the man.
 
unluckyseventeen said:
With the way he's been pouting and electing to shoot jumpers instead of get to the rim, it seems a little more like complacency, to me.
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I haven't seen him doing that more this year than in others and would be curious to see if there's any statistical measure to support that. If that is the case, it's also probably symptomatic of having a 'REAL POST PLAYER!!1' on the team and no one to stretch the floor.
 
NUMBERICA said:
I haven't seen him doing that more this year than in others and would be curious to see if there's any statistical measure to support that. If that is the case, it's also probably symptomatic of having a 'REAL POST PLAYER!!1' on the team and no one to stretch the floor.
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What, taking jumpers? I can tell you that 74% of his shots are jumpers according to 82games. Couldn't tell you about prior years.. it's just an observation from me watching him play that he settles for jumpers more this year and works a lot less to get better looks. His audible and visual frustrations this year are worse than ever. Just putting 2 and 2 together.

Not that this is directly related, but does anybody recall Williams yelling at Hayward on that play vs the Suns, and then Hayward makes a nice V-Cut and scores after working through the post? Just thought that was a little amusing. "You scored because of good recognition!? WHAT THE ****!!!??" We have a very stubborn coach and PG.
 
Jazz4ever said:
Those are unadjusted ratings, kicky. Another words while Deron Williams is guarding Chris Paul, Earl Watson is guarding Jason Hart. Ok extreme example, but you get the point. Although Earl holds up very well on adjusted +/- as well, so he is still the man.
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Like I said, I understand what I'm looking at.

What you see though is striking in terms of both 1st unit vs. 2nd unit (since that's the real grouping trend) and in terms of the near mirror of the Williams vs. Watson defensive margins.

The unadjusted numbers speak to a couple of issues:

1) One of the reasons you adjust is to prevent overstating the value of guys who have bad back-ups or punishing back-ups who happen to have superstars in front of them. For that reason we would expect an adjustment to decrease William's defensive numbers and increase Watson's defensive numbers. What we get is the opposite: the gap narrows because we pull Watson down and push Deron up. That's the reverse of our expectations about these players based on reputation.

2) Basketballvalue breaks it out by defensive and offensive performance, as opposed to the 82games adjusted ratings which group the two components into a net effect. That obscures what's going on with Williams: that he is having a horrendous defensive season while simultaneously being the key to the offense. That actually puts him much closer to what we think of Monta Ellis (although he's obviously more efficient than Monta, I'm talking about it in terms of his "one-dimensionality".)

3) Another reason we adjust is to make sure that a player doesn't have his stats buoyed just because he plays with good teammates. I feel confident in stating that Earl's not getting that much extra benefit from playing with our bench guys.

I recognize that we're seeing the Earl stats with a large sample size against back-up PGs but I think 1 and 3 swamp those some as well as the use of Earl and Deron together in 2 PG backcourts as Sloan has done at various points this season. Obviously, there's no significant statistical difference between their performance in the 1 year adjusted ratings either and that's almost entirely because of Deron's horrendous defensive line. In fact, in one year adjusted +/- Earl Watson is the top player in the entire league (although the standard error issue raises its ugly head, as it always does with +/-)

https://basketballvalue.com/topplayers.php?year=2010-2011&mode=summary&sortnumber=94&sortorder=DESC

So the "adjustment" issue isn't affecting my primary reason for making the thread.
 
unluckyseventeen said:
What, taking jumpers? I can tell you that 74% of his shots are jumpers according to 82games. Couldn't tell you about prior years.. it's just an observation from me watching him play that he settles for jumpers more this year and works a lot less to get better looks. His audible and visual frustrations this year are worse than ever. Just putting 2 and 2 together.
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Here's your answer Numberica, from 82games historical pages.

2010-2011: 74% of attempts are jumpers.
2009-2010: 69% of attempts are jumpers.
2008-2009: 66% of attempts are jumpers.

That's what I could get historical numbers for. Looks like U17 is right that he's taking more jumpers than in previous seasons.
 
I've said it for a while, Deron is a great basketball player, but he's overrated. What ever "it" is, to me, he doesn't have it.
 
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