Miggs
Well-Known Member
Letsgooooooooooooooo.
Despite the mass panic, we are in fact...
- Thread starter Miggs
- Start date
Letsgooooooooooooooo.
Stifle Tower
Punch Bowl Re-Filler
IINM, Hayward's last 5 road games have been 8, 14, 28, 4 and 22 points. I consider that pretty poor for our "best" player. It is certainly below his average. Probably used too strong a word in "sucks"; those 8 and 4 games left more of an impression on me than the 28 and 22 ones. So, I'll revise to "struggles" on the road THIS season. And that is all I'm claiming as my predictions were for the record coming up over the next set of games.
Utah is NOT a good road team this season.
But feel free to put me on ignore if you like. Once again you said I made things up and once again I proved you were wrong in that assumption. And you know what they say about making an assumption...
GVC
Well-Known Member
So...Hayward sucks on the road based on 5 games? Seriously? So dumb.
D
Deleted member 848
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I want to beat the Spurs
Stifle Tower
Punch Bowl Re-Filler
The previous several games are most indicative of what we can expect for the next several, yes. I'm on my phone, so not easy to go back over entire set of road games this season.
Stifle Tower
Punch Bowl Re-Filler
You missed my point entirely. He had 3 subpar games over his last 5. His averages were under what he has done for the entire season. He is a better player at home. By saying those two games didn't "leave a big impression", isn't that the case with most? We're quick to say player x really sucked but often overlook average or slightly over average games, especially if they come in losses.
So I acknowledged my original language was strong. But point remains: what is the Jazz' road record to date? And what are Gordon's averages THIS season on the road?
Take those two questions and factor in the injuries...especially if Favors and Gobert continue to miss games. Now what gives everyone cause to think we're going to have such an amazing winning stretch over the next 20+ games?
So I acknowledged my original language was strong. But point remains: what is the Jazz' road record to date? And what are Gordon's averages THIS season on the road?
Take those two questions and factor in the injuries...especially if Favors and Gobert continue to miss games. Now what gives everyone cause to think we're going to have such an amazing winning stretch over the next 20+ games?
Strength of schedule to date v. strength of schedule over the next 20, getting healthy and improved offensive game.
He's averaged a few more points this season at home. But we have 5.3 years of data, so why base our opinion on just that last 0.3? Hayward's career PPG average on the road is identical to his average at home.
Data, ain't nobody got time for dat.
Stifle Tower
Punch Bowl Re-Filler
Because THIS season is all that matters in projecting THIS season's record. Different roster, different lineups, different usage, etc. What I'm seeing is a different Gordon this year than last. Shots aren't falling like they used to - as often. Perhaps defenders anticipating the step back better. Maybe the pressure of having terrible PG's. Not quite as bad as Corbin's last season, though, when Hayward's percentages really nose-dived. Another factor could be his angle of release which he said he changed. Maybe he needs more time to get truly comfortable and confident.
Fair enough to expect better health for the 19 games that Cunning referred to. And yes, the level of competition is certainly easier. As I said in my earlier post, I think 13-6 would be tops. I expect 10-9 worst case. I'm just not as optimistic as those saying Utah will win 15 or more.
Fair enough to expect better health for the 19 games that Cunning referred to. And yes, the level of competition is certainly easier. As I said in my earlier post, I think 13-6 would be tops. I expect 10-9 worst case. I'm just not as optimistic as those saying Utah will win 15 or more.
GVC
Well-Known Member
No they aren't. In no world are the last 3 observations more predictive than the last 100+. That is, unless something has changed to explain the change. What is it about the last 3 road games that makes Hayward's home/road splits worse than in past seasons (plural)? Remember, we're not talking about his overall performance; we're only talking about his home/road splits.
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GVC
Well-Known Member
None of this garbage addresses his home/road splits. This only accounts for what you perceive to be his poor performance overall this season -- both at home and on the road. Try again.
Joe Bagadonuts
Well-Known Member
b_line
Well-Known Member
How does he get to average 19 ppg if he sucks at basketball? His average scoring is more of indicative of what we can expect. Not your perception of what we can expect. You need to step back and rethink this argument you are making. It's alright to be upset about perceived underperfirmance, but take it in stride a bit. The jazz are close to .500 after losing their center for half the games, their best player in favors has missed like 7 games this year, and they are without their starting point guard and sixth man.
The are probably a 45-50 win team when healthy. And we have cap space for free agents. It's the right time to add a free agent, and it really hasn't been up until now. With some luck, this could be a 55 win team next season.
Stifle Tower
Punch Bowl Re-Filler
So performance from years ago indicates this year's trend doesn't matter?
OK, Utah was a pretty decent road team in the days of Stockton/Malone, so 5-10 this season doesn't mean a thing. Therefore it is more likely Utah wins 2/3rd's of their remaining road games than loses 2/3rd's, as their current record has them doing (5-10). Personally, I think it will be somewhere in the middle: easier schedule, but three key players out (not counting Exum because he hasn't played this year).
As for Hayward, several things HAVE changed this season. I already pointed out he changed his release. That's HUGE! Team composition has changed. He doesn't have Exum starting beside him. Hood is a new starter. And now Lyles and Booker are playing more with him due to injuries. Defenses adjust. They take away strengths.
Here's a link to his offensive and defensive ratings THIS season. There's a significant difference home vs. away this season, including scoring averages of 21.3 pts/per on 44.6%/41.8% at HOME vs. just 16.1 pts/per on 40.1%/35.1% AWAY. Why? Don't know. Ask Gordon. But my point is: Gordon has played MUCH better at home than on the road THIS season. There is no denying that despite what you think of me and accuse me of making wild, unfounded claims.
And please provide a link where I said he sucks at basketball, b_line. I said he sucks on the road. And I later admitted that was a little harsh, but still maintained that his road performance has been subpar. I was on my phone and only pulled 5 games worth of data. I've now looked at all 15 games THIS season. And again, this season is what is most relevant since teammates, usage, age, off-season training - any number of factors - change from year to year.
Click on any of the screens and any of the stats (FG%, EFG%, etc.).
https://stats.nba.com/player/#!/202330/stats/advanced/
OK, Utah was a pretty decent road team in the days of Stockton/Malone, so 5-10 this season doesn't mean a thing. Therefore it is more likely Utah wins 2/3rd's of their remaining road games than loses 2/3rd's, as their current record has them doing (5-10). Personally, I think it will be somewhere in the middle: easier schedule, but three key players out (not counting Exum because he hasn't played this year).
As for Hayward, several things HAVE changed this season. I already pointed out he changed his release. That's HUGE! Team composition has changed. He doesn't have Exum starting beside him. Hood is a new starter. And now Lyles and Booker are playing more with him due to injuries. Defenses adjust. They take away strengths.
Here's a link to his offensive and defensive ratings THIS season. There's a significant difference home vs. away this season, including scoring averages of 21.3 pts/per on 44.6%/41.8% at HOME vs. just 16.1 pts/per on 40.1%/35.1% AWAY. Why? Don't know. Ask Gordon. But my point is: Gordon has played MUCH better at home than on the road THIS season. There is no denying that despite what you think of me and accuse me of making wild, unfounded claims.
And please provide a link where I said he sucks at basketball, b_line. I said he sucks on the road. And I later admitted that was a little harsh, but still maintained that his road performance has been subpar. I was on my phone and only pulled 5 games worth of data. I've now looked at all 15 games THIS season. And again, this season is what is most relevant since teammates, usage, age, off-season training - any number of factors - change from year to year.
Click on any of the screens and any of the stats (FG%, EFG%, etc.).
https://stats.nba.com/player/#!/202330/stats/advanced/
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GVC
Well-Known Member
Did you not read my last two posts, or can you just not understand them?
Yes, Hayward's teammates have changed this season. A couple questions:
1. Why would that only affect Hayward on the road?
2. More specifically -- since, based on your previous posts, you seem to think that the last few games are really what indicate Hayward's quality -- what is it about Hayward's teammates that turned him into a garbage road player over the last three road games?
GVC
Well-Known Member
Nope.
b_line
Well-Known Member
Do you know the meaning of the term "regression to the mean?" Hayward has played 395 games in his career, roughly half of the games on the road. He has almost identical home and road splits in ppg. Let's say that he has played 197 road games. Yet you are looking at the average of 15 of those games and not the average of all of them to make a conclusion about a greater trend of him sucking at basketball on the road? Even when you admitted that two of those fifteen games were outliers and he had off nights? Chances are he will average 19ppg on the road this season. That's the player he is. He is not the guy you are concluding from cherry picking stats to confirm your opinion.
Stifle Tower
Punch Bowl Re-Filler
Yes, that's exactly why I'm betting on Kobe to average 25/per the rest of the season. Also why DL should trade for every struggling player he can. Because all will regress to their means. I'm not cherry-picking stats. I'm simply pointing out that Hayward, for whatever reason, has played poorly on the road for over 1/3 of this season. Will he turn it around? I hope so.
It's funny how you and GVC try to twist the argument when I clearly backed up my original statement with facts.