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Despite the mass panic, we are in fact...

Stifle Tower said:
So performance from years ago indicates this year's trend doesn't matter?
OK, Utah was a pretty decent road team in the days of Stockton/Malone, so 5-10 this season doesn't mean a thing. Therefore it is more likely Utah wins 2/3rd's of their remaining road games than loses 2/3rd's, as their current record has them doing (5-10). Personally, I think it will be somewhere in the middle: easier schedule, but three key players out (not counting Exum because he hasn't played this year).

As for Hayward, several things HAVE changed this season. I already pointed out he changed his release. That's HUGE! Team composition has changed. He doesn't have Exum starting beside him. Hood is a new starter. And now Lyles and Booker are playing more with him due to injuries. Defenses adjust. They take away strengths.

Here's a link to his offensive and defensive ratings THIS season. There's a significant difference home vs. away this season, including scoring averages of 21.3 pts/per on 44.6%/41.8% at HOME vs. just 16.1 pts/per on 40.1%/35.1% AWAY. Why? Don't know. Ask Gordon. But my point is: Gordon has played MUCH better at home than on the road THIS season. There is no denying that despite what you think of me and accuse me of making wild, unfounded claims.

And please provide a link where I said he sucks at basketball, b_line. I said he sucks on the road. And I later admitted that was a little harsh, but still maintained that his road performance has been subpar. I was on my phone and only pulled 5 games worth of data. I've now looked at all 15 games THIS season. And again, this season is what is most relevant since teammates, usage, age, off-season training - any number of factors - change from year to year.

Click on any of the screens and any of the stats (FG%, EFG%, etc.).
https://stats.nba.com/player/#!/202330/stats/advanced/
Click to expand...
Did you not read my last two posts, or can you just not understand them?

Yes, Hayward's teammates have changed this season. A couple questions:

1. Why would that only affect Hayward on the road?
2. More specifically -- since, based on your previous posts, you seem to think that the last few games are really what indicate Hayward's quality -- what is it about Hayward's teammates that turned him into a garbage road player over the last three road games?
 
Stifle Tower said:
So performance from years ago indicates this year's trend doesn't matter?
OK, Utah was a pretty decent road team in the days of Stockton/Malone, so 5-10 this season doesn't mean a thing. Therefore it is more likely Utah wins 2/3rd's of their remaining road games than loses 2/3rd's, as their current record has them doing (5-10). Personally, I think it will be somewhere in the middle: easier schedule, but three key players out (not counting Exum because he hasn't played this year).

As for Hayward, several things HAVE changed this season. I already pointed out he changed his release. That's HUGE! Team composition has changed. He doesn't have Exum starting beside him. Hood is a new starter. And now Lyles and Booker are playing more with him due to injuries. Defenses adjust. They take away strengths.

Here's a link to his offensive and defensive ratings THIS season. There's a significant difference home vs. away this season, including scoring averages of 21.3 pts/per on 44.6%/41.8% at HOME vs. just 16.1 pts/per on 40.1%/35.1% AWAY. Why? Don't know. Ask Gordon. But my point is: Gordon has played MUCH better at home than on the road THIS season. There is no denying that despite what you think of me and accuse me of making wild, unfounded claims.

And please provide a link where I said he sucks at basketball, b_line. I said he sucks on the road. And I later admitted that was a little harsh, but still maintained that his road performance has been subpar. I was on my phone and only pulled 5 games worth of data. I've now looked at all 15 games THIS season. And again, this season is what is most relevant since teammates, usage, age, off-season training - any number of factors - change from year to year.

Click on any of the screens and any of the stats (FG%, EFG%, etc.).
https://stats.nba.com/player/#!/202330/stats/advanced/
Click to expand...

Do you know the meaning of the term "regression to the mean?" Hayward has played 395 games in his career, roughly half of the games on the road. He has almost identical home and road splits in ppg. Let's say that he has played 197 road games. Yet you are looking at the average of 15 of those games and not the average of all of them to make a conclusion about a greater trend of him sucking at basketball on the road? Even when you admitted that two of those fifteen games were outliers and he had off nights? Chances are he will average 19ppg on the road this season. That's the player he is. He is not the guy you are concluding from cherry picking stats to confirm your opinion.
 
b_line said:
Do you know the meaning of the term "regression to the mean?" Hayward has played 395 games in his career, roughly half of the games on the road. He has almost identical home and road splits in ppg. Let's say that he has played 197 road games. Yet you are looking at the average of 15 of those games and not the average of all of them to make a conclusion about a greater trend of him sucking at basketball on the road? Even when you admitted that two of those fifteen games were outliers and he had off nights? Chances are he will average 19ppg on the road this season. That's the player he is. He is not the guy you are concluding from cherry picking stats to confirm your opinion.
Click to expand...

Yes, that's exactly why I'm betting on Kobe to average 25/per the rest of the season. Also why DL should trade for every struggling player he can. Because all will regress to their means. I'm not cherry-picking stats. I'm simply pointing out that Hayward, for whatever reason, has played poorly on the road for over 1/3 of this season. Will he turn it around? I hope so.

It's funny how you and GVC try to twist the argument when I clearly backed up my original statement with facts.
 
GVC said:
Nope.
Click to expand...
So how far back do we go?
Do we expect the Lakers to win a championship because they've won so many in the past? Certainly Portland should win the NW division because that's what they did last year. And OKC is going to fail and miss out on the playoffs, with NO overtaking them at the end of the season. Because, you know, past performance has to be taken into account.
 
Stifle Tower said:
It's funny how you and GVC try to twist the argument when I clearly backed up my original statement with facts.
Click to expand...
1. Why would Hayward's new teammates only affect Hayward on the road?

2. More specifically -- since, based on your previous posts, you seem to think that the last few games are really what indicate Hayward's quality -- what is it about Hayward's teammates that turned him into a garbage road player over the last three road games?

3. What argument have I twisted? You plainly stated Hayward sucks on the road.
 
Don't most teams, and therefore players, play worse on the road than they do at home?

It seems logical that Haywards stats would be better at home than on the road
 
fishonjazz said:
Don't most teams, and therefore players, play worse on the road than they do at home?

It seems logical that Haywards stats would be better at home than on the road
Click to expand...

Exactly what I was thinking.

Pretty awesome that over his career he has played pretty much as well on the road as he has at home.

Stifle Tower, it's like you're being thick headed on purpose. Unless you have an explanation for why Hayward's last five road games are the new norm for him then you can't use just those games to asses who he is as a road player. And just like GVC has said a few times, what is it about the team, about his shooting angles, about whatever else, that applies to road vs home performance?

Please don't talk about Kobe from five years ago or Lakers in the 80s. There are obvious factors there where there are none when it comes to Hayward's road vs home performance.
 
Plop!
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Like I'd hoped 2-3. Should've been 3-2 or 4-1 but that's a whole 'nother story. We now enter an easy stretch for the next month. Let's hope Favors and Hood are back by the middle of this week.

Here we go.

5 seed or bust. Letsgoooooooooo.
 
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