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Things are finally looking up...

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the lottery can only move you up if it's to the top three. Beyond the top three it can only keep you where you are or move you down. (So when we think about the draft, it makes most sense to concentrate on prospects 1-3 or, more realistically, 6-8).

Yes, that's correct.
 
I predict that the Jazz will:

- Make the playoff
- Get a top 5 draft pick this year
- Jefferson & Miles will become our new franchise players and will both make the All Stars game in 2012

You heard it hear first.

Do you care to make a bet with me? Or are we just being fresh? Because I don't think any two of these things can happen in succession. You may only choose one of them.
 
I predict that the Jazz will:

- Make the playoff
- Get a top 5 draft pick this year
- Jefferson & Miles will become our new franchise players and will both make the All Stars game in 2012

You heard it hear first.

-Our April schedule is BRUTAL... we need to go on a serious win streak and still hope that the other playoff hopefuls falter.
-Hope so... let's take Jimmer at 3 if we get it! (*sarcasm)
-Maybe Big Al... CJ homer anyone?
 
Do you care to make a bet with me? Or are we just being fresh? Because I don't think any two of these things can happen in succession. You may only choose one of them.

Get a top 5 draft pick FROM the Nets is what I was meant to say... ~__~ a bit of imagination would go a long way here..
 
Correct me if I'm wrong, but the lottery can only move you up if it's to the top three. Beyond the top three it can only keep you where you are or move you down. (So when we think about the draft, it makes most sense to concentrate on prospects 1-3 or, more realistically, 6-8).

Exactly right. If the Nets are going to finish with the 6th worst record, then what we are going to get would be either 1, 2, 3 (if we are lucky), 6 (if the order stays the same), 7, 8, or 9 (if we are unlucky that all 3 teams with better records hit the lottery).
 
I need more info to give you the odds, but 8 or 9 sounds highly unlikely.
Figure on 6 or 7, and cross your fingers for better.
 
I need more info to give you the odds, but 8 or 9 sounds highly unlikely.
Figure on 6 or 7, and cross your fingers for better.

I think you're basing that on the assumption that NJ ends with the sixth worst record. That doesn't look like a lock by any means.
 
I will compose a map to the off season for our beloved Jazz:

@ Houston and @ Memphis back-to-back= Must wins. Both of them. The most important two games of the season for us. That means we will require a four game win streak, when was the last time the Jazz did that?

@ OKC/vs New Orleans back to back. Tough scheduling here, 4 games in five days. The Jazz really do need to try and pull out one of these games though, I think we can take the Hornets.

vs Dallas= Penciled in as a loss

vs Washington= Must win.

vs Lakers= Would love to surprise them here, but I am penciling it in as a loss.

@ Sacramento= Must Win. Our last "easy" game.

vs Portland= We really got to win against Portland with our April schedule.

@ San Antonio= Loss

@ New Orleans/Vs Denver= I don't know how Memphis or Houston or the suns will be doing at this point, but the Jazz will need to pull one of these out.
 
So with your must wins vs penciled in losses that puts us at 7-6 or 6-7 in our last 13 games. I don't see that getting us into the playoffs. We need at least 8 to 9 of the last 13 to be wins for us to really complete for that last spot unless Memphis, PHX, Houston really fall off.
 
So with your must wins vs penciled in losses that puts us at 7-6 or 6-7 in our last 13 games. I don't see that getting us into the playoffs. We need at least 8 to 9 of the last 13 to be wins for us to really complete for that last spot unless Memphis, PHX, Houston really fall off.

I think you're right. Houston is destroying Boston right now, and I think that puts them 1 game behind us. While we are 1 game behind Memphis, it's going to be a really tight race.
 
Yes, that's correct.

Yep, he's right. Also of note, most of the top picks in the draft lately have been made by teams that did NOT finish with the worst record in the league. Remember, just because the team that finishes with the worst record in the league mathematically has the best chance of winning the lottery and getting the first pick does not mean that it is very likely that this situation will occur. They only have a 25% chance of winning the lottery as the team with the worst record. Translation: there is a 75% chance that they WON'T get the first pick. In fact, if memory serves me correctly, the last team to actually get the #1 overall pick that finished with the worst record in the league was the 2004 Orlando Magic. This is why the NBA set up the draft lottery in the first place. It makes teams less likely to tank at the end of the season so they can get a Top 3 draft pick. The only thing that the team with the worst record is guaranteed is a Top 4 draft pick (three teams behind them move up).
 
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