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Could we win the championship this year?

We could. Now the likelihood is very low, but look how dominant we were the few games where we were semi-healthy. Get everyone healthy and in sync, we could do damage.
 
dalamon said:
I think there's a shot, and it hinges on a few things

- We need to get healthy, and we need to get healthy quickly. One of the things that will help is that if our squad galvanizes and gets healthy, maybe we'll be able to identify minute roster-holes that can be addressed via trade. That's why it's important to get healthy before the trade deadline in February.
- I'm truly not fearful of any Western Conference opponent except for the Warriors. I think that match-up might come down to our bench vs. theirs, and how much grief Favors can cause Durant (as I'm thinking that'll be the body we throw on him, not sure how much Hayward has ever bothered him historically speaking). Their bench should have zero business keeping up with ours though, and we just have so many tools to throw at them if something isn't working out. Get Diaw on the floor to guard Draymond if we need offence. Get JJ on the floor to exploit isos if they're switching everything. Etc. etc.


This is kinda our year, guys. I'm not sure how much of this core will be retained in the years to come. Quin currently has this team operating as a top 10 offence and top 10 defence (only the Clips and the Dubs join us in this regard), and we have really good team morale. Good vets, good contracts, and the west is kinda wide-open after the first 3 seeds. We should be able to secure homecourt if we can simply get our health together.

And honestly even if we were to make the Finals and lose, that would still be a tremendous accomplishment for this team and the organization.

I'm fiercely expecting a 2nd round appearance in the playoffs from our team, and I think it's reasonable to hope for a conference finals berth. Winning the west seems impossible until you realize we're firmly in the playoff race even after constantly missing time from 2-3 starters on our team.
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You touch on something that I've been thinking about lately. When will the Jazz peak? When will the Jazz have the best chance to win a championship?

A few thoughts:

When will the Jazz peak? (we could make this a thread)
-If Hayward resigns, we peak next year. If he doesn't, well then, we peak hopefully sometime this spring.
-I don't see the salary cap expanding enough to keep all these pieces. We'll start losing some eventually. It's unlikely we'll have more talent in 3 years than we do now.
-If we are peaking right now, should we consider trading Exum for someone that is ready to contribute right now? Exum is a piece that can develop into something special*. If we are peaking, do we really want to wait for him? Why not go all in for this year or next year? Let some other team develop him.

*how special is debatable. I think possible All-Star... I hope for better than Hayward, but that jump shot is just so ugly that I'm not sure it will happen.

When will the Jazz have the best chance to win a championship?
-When will other teams start to decline? (Cavs, Warriors, and Spurs...Clipps are already on the way out.)
-When will the T'Wolves or 76ers figure it out? (Will they figure it out?)
 
Crocodile Dante said:
You do realize "fan" is part of fanatic. If you are a fan you have to believe you have a shot. If not then why even care?

A few story lines

Exum - realizes his potential, starts knocking down outside shots and becomes lick down defender. This would drive Curry crazy

Favors - developed a goto low post game and becomes unstoppable. Only the clips have a low post team capable of competing with the jazz.

Rudy - goes all world and no one can score with in 5' of the basket allowing the jazz to become more aggressive on the perimeter. Disrupting passing and shooting

Hayward - his scoring is Jordanesqe. Put the ball in his hands and he will find a way to score

Hood - goes off from outside and is listed among the great 3 point shooters.

Johnson - finds the fountain of youth and comes off the bench scoring like he use to.

Lyles - gets it. Both offense and defense and no one can stop him. He is a mismatch no mayer where he is.

Hill - quietly becomes the second greatest point guard ever to Don a jazz jersey.

Sent from my SM-N910V using JazzFanz mobile app
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You do realize that you forgot Alec Burks, right?

That is what makes me excited. We can be really good this year!

Sometimes I fantasize about those old Disney/90s sports TV shows where the star makes a miraculous comeback during the championship game. Kinda like its the final play and they go to their bench, and all of a sudden the start quarterback is able to tough it out and win the game. I fantasize about Alec Burks doing that in the playoffs. (I'd much rather he come back sooner though!)
 
JFFR said:
You do realize that you forgot Alec Burks, right?

That is what makes me excited. We can be really good this year!

Sometimes I fantasize about those old Disney/90s sports TV shows where the star makes a miraculous comeback during the championship game. Kinda like its the final play and they go to their bench, and all of a sudden the start quarterback is able to tough it out and win the game. I fantasize about Alec Burks doing that in the playoffs. (I'd much rather he come back sooner though!)
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I thought about him and then forgot. Sorry

Sent from my SM-N910V using JazzFanz mobile app
 
dalamon said:
And honestly even if we were to make the Finals and lose, that would still be a tremendous accomplishment for this team and the organization.
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Ya don't say
 
r_u_s_t_b_u_c_k_e_t said:
Your idea that there is a substantive difference between 4% and "fractions of a percentage point"... is absurd.
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That 4% is based on a model which only has the Warriors title chances at 45%, I think the Warriors chances are more like double that. So you can quickly see the difference between fractions of a percentage point and 4% after that majority slice of the pie is subtracted..
 
PG_AB said:
That 4% is based on a model which only has the Warriors title chances at 45%, I think the Warriors chances are more like double that. So you can quickly see the difference between fractions of a percentage point and 4% after that majority slice of the pie is subtracted..
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Wait, let me get this straight. You think the Dubs chances of winning it all are around 90%?
 
I think we (fully healthy) could run with any of the teams, minus the Warriors, by the end of the year.

Golden State would require an injury to one of their 3 best players and maybe two of them...
 
JazzFever said:
I think we (fully healthy) could run with any of the teams, minus the Warriors, by the end of the year.

Golden State would require an injury to one of their 3 best players and maybe two of them...
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I see no reason we can't compete with them. We did last year despite injuries and awful point guard play. If Favors is healthy, all five of our starters are legit defenders, Hood being the worst, but I think he could do okay on Klay.

Our bench, if healthy, and if they gel, is much better than theirs. It comes down to how well we play accountable defense, limit turnovers, and hit the shots we should hit on offense, as well as get to the line and convert.
 
At the end of the day basketball is a make or miss league an the Warriors have a lot of players who makes a lot of shots no matter how good the defense is.
 
Yes we can. It is unlikely but we have the talent to and have the capability of beating any team. I think FiveThiryEights stat sounds about right of 4%. It would very unlikely but there is a decent chance Ws have a major injury or two. Lebron is overdue to be injured. He is also getting older and his performance could decline by the finals. The cavs also might no be that motivated like they were last year. I think we could beat any other team besides those two if we are healthy and playing well in a 7 game series. If Ws lost Curry or Durant they would be in trouble. They have no depth and would struggle in a competitive 7 games series against a physical defensive minded team who has a lot of depth and many positions to worry about.
 
Extremely unlikely, but yeah, possible. I'd probably give us the 6th or so best chance in the league.
 
They're 75:1 to win the Chip... If you like that 4% you've gotta really like those odds.. The Warriors are 2:3
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
At the end of the day basketball is a make or miss league an the Warriors have a lot of players who makes a lot of shots no matter how good the defense is.
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Good post
 
When 100% healthy, I think the only two WC teams who can consistently beat us in 7 are Golden State and San Antonio.

We've been missing two starters and a 6th man. Most teams in that scenario would be worse off than us.

George Hill is just as valuable to us as Curry or Durant is to the Warriors.

The Jazz have held it together pretty well so far and lost a few close games. We could easily be 17-6 at this point - even with the injuries - though we're not. Still, I feel like 14-9 doesn't reflect how good the Jazz are.

At this point, with a roster that's this deep, DL is going to upgrade players and we're only going to get better in the next few years.

Even if we don't make it to the WC Finals, I expect us to get to the semis - and that experience will certainly be beneficial.
 
if the Warriors are healthy nobody is beating them this year. hell, they may only lose one or two games in the playoffs - if that.
 
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