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the worry thread

NAOS

NAOS

Well-Known Member
The fuel that this team needs to push it into title contention is stored in its young assets (cheap and productive OR cheap and very good trade assets) and big trade chips from the Core-4 days. Right now, is the team leaking from both tanks? Should I have asked if the team was "continuing to leak from both tanks" given that we've recently whiffed on Kanter and Burke?:

*Exum's play has often been sub-par, and his role/timeline on this team is absolutely fair to question. Given where all the other pieces are, how do we develop him? His current trade value is near zero (relative to what we needed from a number 5 pick). We are now forced to develop him from standpoint of zero league-wide value; and we're soon to face a difficult decision on his extension value vis-a-vis our cap situation.

*Favors has been absent or ghosted for how many games now? To me, it looks like there's more than physical problems. Speaking in asset-terms, I'm starting to worry that we are losing an important piece, one way or another. If Favors doesn't play for the jazz, then he needs to net us a lot on his way out. If he does play for the jazz, then he needs to get his wet 15-18 footer back + his defensive intensity. Watching him lately is making me sad.

*What is Alec Burks at this point? From here, he could turn into a great piece (as keeper or a trade chip) or he could be in-and-out of the lineup with continuing health problems.



I'm in the mood to worry about how the jazz will take the next step. How will we get to the next tier? History shows that we need a couple of years of playoff experience with our core before legit title contention. Will we burn up (Hill, Johnson, Diaw; age) or lose (Exum, Favors, etc.) too many assets before we can push into a title window?
 
NAOS said:
The fuel that this team needs to push it into title contention is stored in its young assets (cheap and productive OR cheap and very good trade assets) and big trade chips from the Core-4 days. Right now, is the team leaking from both tanks? Should I have asked if the team was "continuing to leak from both tanks" given that we've recently whiffed on Kanter and Burke?:

*Exum's play has often been sub-par, and his role/timeline on this team is absolutely fair to question. Given where all the other pieces are, how do we develop him? His current trade value is near zero (relative to what we needed from a number 5 pick). We are now forced to develop him from standpoint of zero league-wide value; and we're soon to face a difficult decision on his extension value vis-a-vis our cap situation.

*Favors has been absent or ghosted for how many games now? To me, it looks like there's more than physical problems. Speaking in asset-terms, I'm starting to worry that we are losing an important piece, one way or another. If Favors doesn't play for the jazz, then he needs to net us a lot on his way out. If he does play for the jazz, then he needs to get his wet 15-18 footer back + his defensive intensity. Watching him lately is making me sad.

*What is Alec Burks at this point? From here, he could turn into a great piece (as keeper or a trade chip) or he could be in-and-out of the lineup with continuing health problems.



I'm in the mood to worry about how the jazz will take the next step. How will we get to the next tier? History shows that we need a couple of years of playoff experience with our core before legit title contention. Will we burn up (Hill, Johnson, Diaw; age) or lose (Exum, Favors, etc.) too many assets before we can push into a title window?
Click to expand...

It is a legit worry on Exum although I still think he has value.

Favs play isn't great but give him 10 or so games to get right... he has shown some nice flashes and I think will get back into the flow. I still don't think it's an ideal fit with Rudy... He doesn't add a ton to what Rudy already gives us. He doesn't seem to be able to hold down the paint with the second unit either.. again he needs some time.

As far as adding wins... our most meaningful pieces are obviously Hayward, Gobert, and Hill when healthy. I think our core is really Hayward/Gobert/Hood... we have other stuff, but I've forgotten what healthy Favors can do... Hill is a bit older and is having a rough season injury wise. AB? Dante? Lyles has regressed a bit, but I still think he can be good. I'm not really married to any of these guys as the "core" right now.
 
I think the key was that we ended up getting Top 5 players in both the Exum and Burke Drafts. That kind of makes up for missing on those two picks.
 
My first response is to go with what works, and right now that means to keep Gobert, Hayward, Hood, and Hill. Asset movement, acquisition, and retention are all peripheral to the team chemistry located therein.
 
Legit worry. Jazz have accomplished the "easy" part. Taking the next step into true title contenders is where it gets tough.
 
OP, I'm with ya.

It saddens me to see how great (not good) we could be if a) Favors was healthy and b) Exum had developed into something decent to good, not great. I'm not sure where we go from here. I think we have to let this next month play out and maybe make an aggressive move.
 
Not worried about Exum yet.
Not worried about how Burks fits - with all the injuries let that be the worst of our problems for the rest of the year. .

My only legit concern is Favors. At this point I don't think his problem is rust.

Last year 15 games out from his back problem he was at 17 and 9+. Right now he's 5 and 5.

There is no way in the world they'd clear him to play if he wasn't ready - and yet he doesn't look ready.
 
Exum- If he lived up to his draft position we'd be overcommitted in salary at PG with G. Hill needing a near max salary slot. If he turns into a solid backup and gets paid at that level, I don't care what his draft slot was. His D is good and his 3 is OK- if he can up his assist #'s when healthy I'm fine with him.

Favors- health is the only real worry. He was our best player for the first few weeks of the year and would start for the majority of the teams of the league. He only looks bad relative to how awesome Rudy has played. IF he can settle his health down his role on the team is solid. My concern is he has a healthy run just up to signing a new contract and then ends up not being healthy long term. If the doctors have the same concern I'd make the move to find a buyer and get good value for him.

AB is a question mark but really, if he does well its all upside. He is on a very reasonable contract so if we want to keep Ingles in the slot you can trade AB for value (again, this is assuming he does well) or trade Ingles if AB explodes. If he continues with health issues or plays middling, again the contract is reasonable and won't hamstring the team with the new CBA.
 
I understand the motivation behind the original post in this thread, but I think this is a case of having a rare April snowstorm and declaring that it's winter.

Look - under the assumption that both Hayward and Hill sign new contracts (or, in Hayward's case, picks up the 1 year player option for a shot at the megamax in 2018) everything is pointing toward the Jazz being a top three or top two team in the West next season. The Clippers, even when healthy, don't look like a team that pose any threat to Golden State in the conference finals, if they even make it that far. With both Griffin and Paul having player options next year, and entering the downward curves of their primes, with limited roster flexibility outside of these stars, the team appears poised to either A) blow it up, or B) begin the slide into irrelevance. The Spurs are incredible but face similar challenges - Gasol, Parker, Ginobli don't have many productive years left - and while they're sure to make some noise in free agency, their team feels a bit like the Deron/AK Jazz - good enough to make noise and resist hitting the reset button, but not great enough to truly contend without a major set of lucky breaks.

The Jazz, on the other hand, are still on their upward trajectory and climb. Hayward is just starting to enter his prime. Gobert will continue making improvement - barring injury he hasn't even sniffed his prime as of yet, which is insane to think about. Hood has at least another couple of jumps to make, and I truly believe that in two years we're going to see a player who is more offensively consistent than Hayward even if he isn't quite the defensive player and all-around package.

Keep in mind that two years ago, everyone was saying that the Jazz needed a star. Now, it can be legitimately argued, they have two - and the development has come from within. It feels similar to the rising Spurs of a decade ago, where Duncan was always considered a star, but Ginobli and Parker, and later Leonard, were developed into the star players they became.

Exum is 21 years old with limited playing experience and, from what we've seen this year, he's taken a step forward, albeit a minor/moderate one. This is to be expected for a second year point guard. Next year will be telling - point guards in the league typically make their biggest jump between years two and three as they start to figure it out. I'm expecting Mack to make his exit this summer after Hayward has resigned and the backup keys will be handled to Dante. He'll develop quickly and I'm still predicting he'll be an All Star caliber guard by the time Hill is losing production due to age. All the pieces are there for Exum - vision, speed, athleticism and smarts. He needs time and strength and conditioning to put them together and that will come. We shouldn't expect a Westbrook or Kobe style superstar with Exum, but we can expect a player similar to Parker or, hopefully, Penny Hardaway - able to be a star when coupled with other star players.

Favors was on a minute restriction a week ago. He's clearly hobbled. But nothing of the injuries we've seen indicated that they're career altering. This is not Oden. He needs to shake off the rust and get his hops and mobility back, which is what makes him so dangerous. If he makes a full recovery, the question is going to be whether or not the Gobert-Favors front court combination can win - something that I'm skeptical of in the long-term, especially given that both Hill and Exum's games are going to need space to operate. But even if Favors is hobbled, given that he finds comfort in staying in one place, loves the Jazz, and may have his own concerns over his body, he might choose to accept a lower contract to be slotted into a backup center role behind Rudy. He would feast in that role. I think he's the least likely of the Jazz starters to be on the roster in two years, but I think there's time to figure this out.

Burks hasn't played in months. He's working his way back into game shape. Way, way, way too early to sound any sort of alarm. If I had to guess, he'll likely be traded this summer or next year once his value is higher and that will free up money to resign Ingles, etc.

Right now in the NBA, you're either the Warriors and Cavs or you're another team. We're not at that tier, but fully healthy, I'm certain that we're in the next tier, along with Houston, Toronto, and San Antonio. Winning a championship is going to require some lucky breaks - of which we've had few so far, the continued development of Exum - which WILL come, ya'll just need to chill, and steady growth from Gobert and Hood as they enter their primes, and Hayward maintaining his current play. And we'll also need some unlucky breaks to happen to other teams - look what's happened to the Clippers with Blake out and Paul in and out of the lineup. The Warriors have similar limited depth - one injury to any of their core four in the playoffs could significantly change the race in the west.

You have to be extremely lucky to win an NBA championship. All that front offices can do is to have their teams be in a position to capitalize on lucky breaks (or unlucky breaks for other teams) when they occur. That's what Lindsey has done. And even if we don't get those breaks, it's going to be fun as hell to watch.
 
I remember watching OKC get 3 high draft picks... Lottery balls went in their favor and they ended up with Durant, Westbrook, and Harden. All three picks were part of really strong drafts. It was so exciting to see our upcoming assets in strong drafts. I remember the Jazz looking like they were going to get all sorts of awesome players...

Then I remember watching how the lottery balls never fell in our favor. There was the 2 deep draft where we got the third pick - Kanter. Now we had 2 top 3 picks! Favors and Kanter! But Corbin was our coach and he couldn't develop crap. He wouldn't play the young guys we drafted. Trash can fire. Rebuild? Uggh! There was Alec Burks, but he got injured every time he looked great. There was reason to be excited with the 5th pick with Exum instead of getting a lottery pick. ACL tear. Either the balls never seemed to bounce our way or the injury bug bit hard. It seemed like when we had a chance to capitalize on picks, we were always unlucky. We lost a coin toss with the Warriors that would have likely given us Harrison Barnes! I think we have lost 5 out of the last 6 coin tosses!!!

So, there was lots of reason to be bitter about the lottery system and feel sorry for ourselves. But....

We got Dennis Lindsey. He let Corbin go. Then he hired Dr. Quin, medicine man. Since then it doesn't seem to matter where we are drafting. We find talent and develop it. We got Gobert and Hood with 20+ first round picks. Go ahead and redraft in 2010 and 2013 and 2014 draft classes. We picked up Hayward (who today would arguably be the #1 overall pick with Paul George and Wall not playing to their potential). 2014 Hood would be a top 7 pick no doubt and likely a top 5 pick. 2013 Gobert would be challenged by Giannis and CJ McColon (tee hee). Let's say he goes #2 to Giannis.

So, we have have 2 players that would be top 2 picks right there. Gobert and Hayward. We have a supporting cast of players. We have the infrastructure in place now like never before to develop players in a solid environment. Strong management, great coaching, pride, a top quality team atmosphere.

So, let's say that Favors doesn't pick himself back up, Burks ends up in a wheel chair, Exum's knees need to be replaced by his ******** ligaments, and all we can manage to do is to keep Hayward, Hill, and Gobert as the core. Are we really not setup to push this on folks? They are undefeated when they play together! The management team is their to find and develop more diamonds! They are still REALLY YOUNG! We would regain flexibility if Favors, Burks, and Exum don't pan out. If they do pan out, we will pick the one or two we want.

Folks... this is no time to panic. Sure... we are not in the mold of OKC who got lucky drafting 3 super elite players. We are setup like the Spurs to be relevant for the long haul. Drink the punch folks. The Jazz are here to stay. We will have some ups and downs, don't get me wrong. But the fact is we can recognize and develop talent like few teams. That alone will keep moving us forward step by step. Mix in some time and a turn of luck and we are right there.
 
The Jazz Wonderbra said:
I remember watching OKC get 3 high draft picks... Lottery balls went in their favor and they ended up with Durant, Westbrook, and Harden. All three picks were part of really strong drafts. It was so exciting to see our upcoming assets in strong drafts. I remember the Jazz looking like they were going to get all sorts of awesome players...

Then I remember watching how the lottery balls never fell in our favor. There was the 2 deep draft where we got the third pick - Kanter. Now we had 2 top 3 picks! Favors and Kanter! But Corbin was our coach and he couldn't develop crap. He wouldn't play the young guys we drafted. Trash can fire. Rebuild? Uggh! There was Alec Burks, but he got injured every time he looked great. There was reason to be excited with the 5th pick with Exum instead of getting a lottery pick. ACL tear. Either the balls never seemed to bounce our way or the injury bug bit hard. It seemed like when we had a chance to capitalize on picks, we were always unlucky. We lost a coin toss with the Warriors that would have likely given us Harrison Barnes! I think we have lost 5 out of the last 6 coin tosses!!!

So, there was lots of reason to be bitter about the lottery system and feel sorry for ourselves. But....

We got Dennis Lindsey. He let Corbin go. Then he hired Dr. Quin, medicine man. Since then it doesn't seem to matter where we are drafting. We find talent and develop it. We got Gobert and Hood with 20+ first round picks. Go ahead and redraft in 2010 and 2013 and 2014 draft classes. We picked up Hayward (who today would arguably be the #1 overall pick with Paul George and Wall not playing to their potential). 2014 Hood would be a top 7 pick no doubt and likely a top 5 pick. 2013 Gobert would be challenged by Giannis and CJ McColon (tee hee). Let's say he goes #2 to Giannis.

So, we have have 2 players that would be top 2 picks right there. Gobert and Hayward. We have a supporting cast of players. We have the infrastructure in place now like never before to develop players in a solid environment. Strong management, great coaching, pride, a top quality team atmosphere.

So, let's say that Favors doesn't pick himself back up, Burks ends up in a wheel chair, Exum's knees need to be replaced by his ******** ligaments, and all we can manage to do is to keep Hayward, Hill, and Gobert as the core. Are we really not setup to push this on folks? They are undefeated when they play together! The management team is their to find and develop more diamonds! They are still REALLY YOUNG! We would regain flexibility if Favors, Burks, and Exum don't pan out. If they do pan out, we will pick the one or two we want.

Folks... this is no time to panic. Sure... we are not in the mold of OKC who got lucky drafting 3 super elite players. We are setup like the Spurs to be relevant for the long haul. Drink the punch folks. The Jazz are here to stay. We will have some ups and downs, don't get me wrong. But the fact is we can recognize and develop talent like few teams. That alone will keep moving us forward step by step. Mix in some time and a turn of luck and we are right there.
Click to expand...

Great post... only thing that worries me is our tendency to be married to our guys... San Antonio is setup because they sent out a good proven prospect and took a chance on Kwahi.

I'm not sure we have those kind of cojones. I also don't think we get the cheap high quality ring chasing vets.

I see a need to make some moves but none are urgent or obvious. Making the correct moves will determine if we become Memphis or San Antonio imo. We still have great draft assets and if we can find some contributors it would be huge.
 
I'm not too worried. Teams can't keep all their assets; there's just not enough money. The good news is that Utah has fixed the Exum "bust" by acquiring Hill. We thought we'd be maxing Dante after his rookie deal. Now we just have to re-sign Hill. If Exum develops, Jazz will have to weigh whatever offer he may get against their roster and financial situation at that time.

No doubt there will be some tough decisions ahead: Favors, Lyles, Ingles, Burks. Some of those guys may not be around in a couple of years due to financial constraints. Lindsey just needs to add as much cheap talent to the pipeline as possible and add value FA's if possible.
 
The Jazz Wonderbra said:
I remember watching OKC get 3 high draft picks... Lottery balls went in their favor and they ended up with Durant, Westbrook, and Harden. All three picks were part of really strong drafts. It was so exciting to see our upcoming assets in strong drafts. I remember the Jazz looking like they were going to get all sorts of awesome players...

Then I remember watching how the lottery balls never fell in our favor. There was the 2 deep draft where we got the third pick - Kanter. Now we had 2 top 3 picks! Favors and Kanter! But Corbin was our coach and he couldn't develop crap. He wouldn't play the young guys we drafted. Trash can fire. Rebuild? Uggh! There was Alec Burks, but he got injured every time he looked great. There was reason to be excited with the 5th pick with Exum instead of getting a lottery pick. ACL tear. Either the balls never seemed to bounce our way or the injury bug bit hard. It seemed like when we had a chance to capitalize on picks, we were always unlucky. We lost a coin toss with the Warriors that would have likely given us Harrison Barnes! I think we have lost 5 out of the last 6 coin tosses!!!

So, there was lots of reason to be bitter about the lottery system and feel sorry for ourselves. But....

We got Dennis Lindsey. He let Corbin go. Then he hired Dr. Quin, medicine man. Since then it doesn't seem to matter where we are drafting. We find talent and develop it. We got Gobert and Hood with 20+ first round picks. Go ahead and redraft in 2010 and 2013 and 2014 draft classes. We picked up Hayward (who today would arguably be the #1 overall pick with Paul George and Wall not playing to their potential). 2014 Hood would be a top 7 pick no doubt and likely a top 5 pick. 2013 Gobert would be challenged by Giannis and CJ McColon (tee hee). Let's say he goes #2 to Giannis.

So, we have have 2 players that would be top 2 picks right there. Gobert and Hayward. We have a supporting cast of players. We have the infrastructure in place now like never before to develop players in a solid environment. Strong management, great coaching, pride, a top quality team atmosphere.

So, let's say that Favors doesn't pick himself back up, Burks ends up in a wheel chair, Exum's knees need to be replaced by his ******** ligaments, and all we can manage to do is to keep Hayward, Hill, and Gobert as the core. Are we really not setup to push this on folks? They are undefeated when they play together! The management team is their to find and develop more diamonds! They are still REALLY YOUNG! We would regain flexibility if Favors, Burks, and Exum don't pan out. If they do pan out, we will pick the one or two we want.

Folks... this is no time to panic. Sure... we are not in the mold of OKC who got lucky drafting 3 super elite players. We are setup like the Spurs to be relevant for the long haul. Drink the punch folks. The Jazz are here to stay. We will have some ups and downs, don't get me wrong. But the fact is we can recognize and develop talent like few teams. That alone will keep moving us forward step by step. Mix in some time and a turn of luck and we are right there.
Click to expand...

some decent points, but I didn't say this was a "panic" thread. It's a worry thread.
 
NAOS said:
The fuel that this team needs to push it into title contention is stored in its young assets (cheap and productive OR cheap and very good trade assets) and big trade chips from the Core-4 days. Right now, is the team leaking from both tanks? Should I have asked if the team was "continuing to leak from both tanks" given that we've recently whiffed on Kanter and Burke?:

*Exum's play has often been sub-par, and his role/timeline on this team is absolutely fair to question. Given where all the other pieces are, how do we develop him? His current trade value is near zero (relative to what we needed from a number 5 pick). We are now forced to develop him from standpoint of zero league-wide value; and we're soon to face a difficult decision on his extension value vis-a-vis our cap situation.

*Favors has been absent or ghosted for how many games now? To me, it looks like there's more than physical problems. Speaking in asset-terms, I'm starting to worry that we are losing an important piece, one way or another. If Favors doesn't play for the jazz, then he needs to net us a lot on his way out. If he does play for the jazz, then he needs to get his wet 15-18 footer back + his defensive intensity. Watching him lately is making me sad.

*What is Alec Burks at this point? From here, he could turn into a great piece (as keeper or a trade chip) or he could be in-and-out of the lineup with continuing health problems.



I'm in the mood to worry about how the jazz will take the next step. How will we get to the next tier? History shows that we need a couple of years of playoff experience with our core before legit title contention. Will we burn up (Hill, Johnson, Diaw; age) or lose (Exum, Favors, etc.) too many assets before we can push into a title window?
Click to expand...

Don't you worry bro. Let the Warriors worry about the tax amount that will triple what they pay to their players.


Sent from my iPhone using JazzFanz
 
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