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Colton's Mock Draft Compilation, v. 10.0

colton

colton

All Around Nice Guy
Contributor
Welcome to Colton's Mock Draft Compilation, v. 10.0. Here are who the mock drafts are listing as the "best players". See below for details. It should give a pretty good idea of who will be available when the Jazz pick.

1 Kyrie Irving (formerly 1)
2 Derrick Williams (2)
3 Brandon Knight (3)
4 Enes Kanter (4)
5 Jonas Valanciunas (8)
6 Jan Vesely (6)
7 Kemba Walker (5)
8 Kawhi Leonard (7)
9 Bismack Biyombo (9)
10 Alec Burks (10)
11 Tristan Thompson (11)
12 Marcus Morris (12)
13 Donatas Motiejunas (12)
14 Chris Singleton (15)
15 Jordan Hamilton (14)
16 Jimmer Fredette (16)
17 Markieff Morris (17)
18 Klay Thompson (18)
19 Tobias Harris (20)
20 Kenneth Faried (19)
21 Josh Selby (23)
22 Reggie Jackson (21)
23 Tyler Honeycutt (22)
24 Marshon Brooks (25)
25 Nikola Mirotic (27)
26 Darius Morris (23)
27 Nikola Vucevic (unranked)
28 Lucas Noquiera (26)
28 Davis Bertans (28)
30 Kyle Singler (30)

On the first round bubble: Jordan Williams, Justin Harper, Charles Jenkins, Trey Thompkins, Nolan Smith

Ranking details: I used the following mock drafts as "voters" for the best players. That is, I assumed they ranked the players in the order that they felt like the players deserved to be drafted. (This is an incorrect assumption, because some mock drafts account for perceived team need, but it should be close.) Then I used the "instant run-off voting" algorithm in a program I wrote to deduce who deserved to be ranked in the top spot, then in the second spot, then in the third spot, and so forth. See here for details on that algorithm: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instant-runoff_voting

Mock drafts used:
https://realsportshype.blogspot.com/2011/03/2011-nba-mock-draft.html May 29
https://www.hoopsworld.com/the_draft/FullMockDraft.asp May 27
https://www.dynastybasketball.net/ May 27
https://www.nbadraftinsider.com/2011-mock-draft/ May 26
https://nbadraftroom2.blogspot.com/p/2011-nba-mock-draft.html May 26
https://walterfootball.com/nbadraft2011mock.php May 26
https://www.thesportsbank.net/nba-draft-stock-report/2011-nba-mock-draft-first-round-21811/ May 26
https://www.mockdraftmania.com/category/pro-mock-drafts/nba-mocks/ May 26
https://www.nba-draft.com/2011MockDraftRound1.html May 25
https://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/sam_amick/05/17/mock.draft.1/index.html May 25
https://www.drafttek.com/NBAround12011.asp May 24
https://draftempire.com/2011_nba_mock_draft May 24
https://www.hoopsaddict.com/2011-nba-mock-draft/ May 24
https://www.mynbadraft.com/2011-NBA-Mock-Draft May 24
Chad Ford 3.0 (ESPN insider) May 24
https://collegehoopsupdate.com/html/mock_nba_draft_2011.php May 24
https://www.draftexpress.com/nba-mock-draft/2011/ May 23
https://www.thehoopsreport.com/draft.aspx May 22
https://drafthype.com/2011-nba-mock-draft/ May 20
https://nbasoup.com/?cat=10 May 20
https://basketball.about.com/od/nbadraft/a/mock-draft-2011.htm May 19
https://www.draftamerica.com/nba-mock-draft.php May 19
https://www.nbadraft.net/2011mock_draft May 18



Changes from v 9.0: There are NINE mock drafts which are new and/or have been updated since the last version of my compilation.
 
I find it interesting that Jimmer seems to continue to fall.
 
Here are some more interesting observations from my compilation. By looking at the averages/medians of the player rankings, it's clear the mock drafts believe the draft is a tiered system like this:

Tier 1. Pick 1: Kyrie Irving. Not a single mock draft lists him as anything but #1 now.

Tier 2. Pick 2: Derrick Williams. Only a couple of mocks have him as anything but #2.

Tier 3. Picks 3-4: Knight & Kanter. Still at lot that list them as #4 and #3 as compared to #3 and #4. Knight likely only moves up to this tier because so many mocks think the Jazz have their eyes set on him.

Tier 4. Picks 5-10: Valenciunas, Vesely, Walker, Leonard, Biyombo, Burks. These six picks are just all over the place... basically roll the dice and they could come out in any order from 5-10. But very few of the mocks have any of these guys listed below about #11. The means for these players' rankings are, respectively, 9, 7.09, 7, 7.48, 9.09, and 10.6.

Tier 5. Picks 11-20: Tristan Thompson, Marcus Morris, Motiejunas, Singleton, Hamilton, Fredette, Markieff Morris, Klay Thompson, Tobias Harris, and Kenneth Faried. Again, roll the dice and these guys could come up in any order. Few of the mock drafts rank many of these guys below about #22, and few mock drafts have many of them ranked in the top 10. The means for these players' rankings are, respectively, 16.8, 15, 18.1, 16.3, 16.5, 15.3, 19.9, 22, 22.8, and 21.5. All very close.

Tier 6. Picks 21-25: Josh Selby, Reggie Jackson, Tyler Honeycutt, Marshon Brooks, and Nikola Mirotic. Although a notch below the last batch, almost all of the mock drafts believe these guys will still end up in the first ronud. The means for these players' rankings are, respectively, 28,30,27.9, 33.7, and 34.6. (The means are less, well, meaningful now, because I arbitrarily assigned a ranking of 61 to any players not listed in a given mock draft... and a lot of mocks only had the first round.)

Tier 7. Picks 26-38. Morris, Vucevic, Noquiera, Bertans, Singler, Jordan Williams, Harper, Jenkins, Trey Thompkins, Nolan Smith, JaJuan Johnson, Jeremy Tyler, and Mack. This is a group of 13 players which comprise the bottom of the first round and top of the second round. It seems unlikely that anyone not at least listed in this tier will be picked in the first round, and it seems unlikely that any of these guys will go undrafted. Their means range from 36 to 43.

Tier 8. Picks 39-60. Everyone else. May or may not even be drafted.


Now, granted, the mock drafts' rankings are not perfect, but if they fairly accurately reflect the players' abilities, then it seems like the Jazz got unlucky with pick #12 because it seems very likely that all of the Tier 4 players will be gone by then.
 
I guarantee you that at least two of your tier 4 players will be busts and at least two of your tier 5 players will perform well above expectations, so the Jazz might not get to pick from all the guys they wish they could, but they might find the right guy for their system anyway. That said, I sure wish we were going to have a shot at Biyombo.
 
Joe Bagadonuts said:
I guarantee you that at least two of your tier 4 players will be busts and at least two of your tier 5 players will perform well above expectations, so the Jazz might not get to pick from all the guys they wish they could, but they might find the right guy for their system anyway. That said, I sure wish we were going to have a shot at Biyombo.
Click to expand...

Sure. It's precentages, though. If four of the six Tier 4 players are going to be pretty good, but only (say) five of the ten Tier 5 players, then a Tier 4 pick is much more valuable than a Tier 5 pick.
 
Colton did you do this last year? If so how did the final results match the draft?

I think the mocks started to converge last year so that the first 8 picks were more or less right on. Then starting with the Jazz the next 5 were scattered.

Is it coincedence that the mocks can't figure what the Jazz are going to do this year?
 
Colton, just to note, nbadraft.net updated their mock draft today and they have Derrick Williams #1, Kyrie Irving #2, Enes Kanter #3, and Brandon Knight #4, interesting to say the least.
 
mellow said:
Colton did you do this last year? If so how did the final results match the draft?
Click to expand...

Nope, didn't do it last year. I did something similar about 4-5 years ago, but the ranking algorithm I used wasn't as sophisticated as the "Instant Runoff Voting" algorithm I'm using now. I just ran across "Instant Runoff" about 2-3 years ago (in the context of music awards voting), and ever since I had been thinking that it would be cool to apply it to the draft.
 
nothingbutnet said:
Colton, just to note, nbadraft.net updated their mock draft today and they have Derrick Williams #1, Kyrie Irving #2, Enes Kanter #3, and Brandon Knight #4, interesting to say the least.
Click to expand...

Yes, interesting. I guess they are now the only mock draft (of the ones I'm tracking) to have Williams as #1.
 
Hantlers said:
We know you do. Yet you still haven't come up with a decent reason to hate him.
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I think i have stated my reasons plenty.
1) He is fathered by Gheorghe Muresan.
2) he has not played one single meaningful game that one would measure. All star games dont freaking count!
3) if a lockout happens, it will be at least two years since he has played an organized game.
4) He is not putting up 34 points against carlos boozer much less dwight howard.
5) where does he play? He is worse than the guys we already have up front, by a huge margin.
6) how many international players are starters in the league? How many are stars? How many are no longer in the league? I am not going to waste my time pulling the numbers, but clearly far more overblown hype busts than starters. Yall know this.
 
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