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Colton's 2018 mock draft compilation, v 1.0

colton

All Around Nice Guy
Contributor
Welcome to the traditional annual "Colton's Mock Draft Compilation": 2018 mock draft compilation, v. 1.0. I will probably do one or two more versions. I used 10 mock drafts, all of which had been updated Jun 1 or later. Here are who the mock drafts are listing as the "best players". See below for details. It should give a pretty good idea of who will be available when the Jazz pick. Currently their picks are at 21 and 52 but of course trades can always happen.

1 DeAndre Ayton
2 Marvin Bagley III
3 Luka Doncic
4 Jaren Jackson Jr
5 Michael Porter Jr
6 Mohamed Bamba
7 Wendell Carter Jr
8 Trae Young
9 Mikal Bridges
10 Collin Sexton
11 Miles Bridges
12 Kevin Knox
13 Lonnie Walker
14 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
15 Robert Williams
16 Zhaire Smith
17 Troy Brown
17 Khyri Thomas
17 Keita Bates-Diop
17 Aaron Holiday
17 Mitchell Robinson
17 Dzanan Musa
17 Anfernee Simons
17 Jacob Evans
17 De'Anthony Melton
17 Landry Shamet

27 Donte DiVincenzo
28 Chandler Hutchison
29 Kevin Huerter
30 Elie Okobo
31 Gary Trent Jr
32 Jalen Brunson
33 Grayson Allen
34 Omari Spellman
35 Jerome Robinson
36 Josh Okogie
37 Bruce Brown
38 Melvin Frazier
39 Trevon Duval
40 Rawle Alkins
41 Moritz Wagner
42 Jevon Carter
43 Hamidou Diallo
44 Rodions Kurucs
45 Brandon McCoy
46 Chimezie Metu
47 Devonte Graham
48 Shake Milton
49 Kevin Hervey
50 Jarred Vanderbilt
50 Tony Carr
50 Raymond Spalding
50 Justin Jackson
50 Isaac Bonga
50 Arnoldas Kulboka
50 Kenrich Williams
50 Brian Bowen

58 Malik Newman
59 Devon Hall
60 Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk

For full data see https://www.physics.byu.edu/faculty/colton/nba mock draft compilation 2018 - v.1.0.htm; sorry about the messed up formatting of the hyperlinks there but I don't have time to fix that.

Some observations about where the Jazz pick:

Pick 21
* The "best guesses" for pick 21, if there is such a thing, are all the players tied at 17: Troy Brown, Khyri Thomas, Keita Bates-Diop, Aaron Holiday, Mitchell Robinson, Dzanan Musa, Anfernee Simons, Jacob Evans, De'Anthony Melton, Landry Shamet.
* The highest ranked player that any of the mock drafts have available at pick 21 is Lonnie Walker.
* The highest ranked player that any of the mock drafts have the Jazz picking at pick 21 is Troy Brown. Two mocks have the Jazz selecting him.

Pick 52
* The "best guess" for pick 52 is: (there is no current best guess).
* The highest ranked player that any of the mock drafts have available at pick 52 is Aaron Holiday.
* The highest ranked player that any of the mock drafts have the Jazz picking at pick 52 is Elie Okobo. One mock has the Jazz selecting him.


----

Ranking details: I used the following mock drafts as "voters" for the best players. That is, I assumed they ranked the players in the order that they felt like the players deserved to be drafted. (This is an incorrect assumption, because some mock drafts account for perceived team need, but it should be close.) Then I used the "instant run-off voting" algorithm in a program I wrote to deduce who deserved to be ranked in the top spot, then in the second spot, then in the third spot, and so forth. See here for details on that algorithm: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instant-runoff_voting. Where the players ended up tied, I used their median and average rankings (in that order) to be the tie-breakers in how I listed them.

Mock drafts used (in no particular order):
https://www.si.com/nba/2018/06/05/2...r-jr-marvin-bagley-suns-kings-grizzlies-hawks Jeremoy Woo Jun 5
https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/b...ncic-bamba-bagley-young-porter-carter-bridges Mark Strotman Jun 5
http://netscoutsbasketball.com/scouting/2018-nba-mock-draft/ Carl Berman? Jun 5
http://www.nbadraft.net/2018mock_draft ? Jun 5
https://www.cbssports.com/college-b...rojection-is-dominated-by-big-men-at-the-top/ Matt Norlander Jun 5
http://www.basketballinsiders.com/nba-daily-2018-60-pick-nba-mock-draft-6-5-18/ Steve Kyler Jun 5
https://nbadraft.theringer.com/?_ga=2.162234751.2125459334.1528302899-472487641.1528302899 Kevin O'Connor Jun 4
http://www.nbadraftroom.com/p/2018-nba-mock-draft.html ? Jun 2
http://walterfootball.com/nbadraft2018mock.php David Kay Jun 2
https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/...d-before-grizzlies-can-pounce-with-no-4-pick/ Gary Parrish Jun 2

If you have suggestions/requests for other mocks that should be included, let me know.
 
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Out of the players available to us I would pick Bonga in the 2nd round. The first round is harder. Probably Troy Brown if he is available.
 
I'm still trying to understand how either Doncic or Ayton go number 1. Each have some questionable areas.. Ayton - really a number #1 pick on a 6-11 guy who only has a serviceable jumper and limited rim protection? And Doncic - the best thing about the kid are the historic numbers he has put up. But surely if he is not an elite athlete, his shooting would need to improve?

I'd be tempted moving down in this draft and getting an athletic two way beast. Or move down and take a punt on Trae Young or someone who has superstar potential (albeit small)
 
Hey colton can we get a comparison btw your prediction last season and the final draft standings please????
 
Both guys are worthy of #1.

People sleeping on Doncic are straight dumb. He's got some baby fat... he's taking that fat *** and kicking grown men up and down the court as a damned 18 year old. He did it at worlds against nba guys... dude is the truth.

I have doubts about how motivated Ayton is but physically holy ****... He was very productive but had a seemingly lackadaisical approach to college ball at times. Ben Simmons had some of the same vibe so it might just be realizing that college ball is just the year before the real stuff starts.
 
Hey colton can we get a comparison btw your prediction last season and the final draft standings please????
Yes, I looked at that after the actual draft--how did my "instant runoff" predictions compare to the actual results, and how did the various mock drafts do in their own predictions? There are lots of ways how to rank the quality of the mocks' guesses; in the end I used a complicated formula that I don't want to take the time to explain here. Also, I couldn't figure out a good way to compare the mocks that only had the first round to those that had both rounds, so I just used the mocks that had both rounds in this comparison.

rank mock draft
1 http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-mock-draft/2017/
2 median
3 mean
4 instant runoff
5 http://www.drafttek.com/2017-NBA-Draft/2017-NBA-Mock-Draft-Round-1.asp
6 https://nbadraft.theringer.com/
7 http://www.nbadraft.net/2017mock_draft
8 http://walterfootball.com/nbadraft2017mock.php
9 http://www.nba.com/article/2017/06/...collection=writer/archive/scott-howard-cooper
10 http://www.mynbadraft.com/NBA-Mock-Draft
11 http://www.nbadraftroom.com/p/2017-nba-mock-draft.html
12 http://netscoutsbasketball.com/scouting/2016-nba-mock-draft/
13 http://www.basketballinsiders.com/nba-am-final-mock-of-the-2017-nba-draft/

Interestingly, using a composite ranking such as median, mean, or instant runoff, was more accurate than any one mock draft except for Jonathan Givony's mock from draftexpress. (He was hired by ESPN, so draftexpress is no more.)

If you're just interested in my own compiled instant runoff prediction, here's how that ended up:

actual draft player instant runoff prediction
1 Markelle Fultz 1
2 Lonzo Ball 2
3 Jayson Tatum 4
4 Josh Jackson 3
5 De'Aaron Fox 5
6 Jonathan Isaac 6
7 Lauri Markkanen 7
8 Frank Ntilikina 10
9 Dennis Smith 9
10 Zach Collins 11
11 Malik Monk 8
12 Luke Kennard 13
13 Donavan Mitchell 12
14 Bam Adebayo 23
15 Justin Jackson 15
16 Justin Patton 18
17 D.J. Wilson 25
18 T.J. Leaf 20
19 John Collins 15
20 Harry Giles 18
21 Terrance Ferguson 22
22 Jarrett Allen 17
23 OG Anunoby 14
24 Tyler Lydon 26
25 Anzejs Pasecniks 24
26 Caleb Swanigan 31
27 Kyle Kuzma 35
28 Tony Bradley 36
29 Derrick White 34
30 Josh Hart 37
31 Frank Jackson 33
32 Davon Reed 65
33 Wesley Iwundu 38
34 Frank Mason 48
35 Ivan Rabb 27
36 Jonah Bolden 39
37 Semi Ojeleye 27
38 Jordan Bell 30
39 Jawun Evans 32
40 Dwayne Bacon 60
41 Tyler Dorsey 49
42 Thomas Bryant 45
43 Isaiah Hartenstein 27
44 Damyean Dotson 49
45 Dillon Brooks 43
46 Sterling Brown 47
47 Ike Anigbogu 21
48 Sindarius Thornwell 49
49 Vlatko Cancar 61
50 Mathias Lessort 40
51 Monte Morris 49
52 Edmond Sumner 46
53 Kadeem Allen 70
54 Alec Peters 42
55 Nigel Williams-Goss 65
56 Jabari Bird 79
57 Aleksandar Vezenkov 69
58 Ognjen Jaramaz 79
59 Jaron Blossomgame 49
60 Alpha Kaba 49
 
If we take Elie, is it safe to say that the Jazz are ready to move on from Exum?
 
Interesting how last years results compares with this years predictions. Few variations 1-16(ish) then it becomes anyone's guess.
 
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