Colton's 2018 mock draft compilation, v 1.0

Discussion in 'Utah Jazz' started by colton, Jun 6, 2018.

  1. colton

    colton All Around Nice Guy Staff Member

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    Welcome to the traditional annual "Colton's Mock Draft Compilation": 2018 mock draft compilation, v. 1.0. I will probably do one or two more versions. I used 10 mock drafts, all of which had been updated Jun 1 or later. Here are who the mock drafts are listing as the "best players". See below for details. It should give a pretty good idea of who will be available when the Jazz pick. Currently their picks are at 21 and 52 but of course trades can always happen.

    1 DeAndre Ayton
    2 Marvin Bagley III
    3 Luka Doncic
    4 Jaren Jackson Jr
    5 Michael Porter Jr
    6 Mohamed Bamba
    7 Wendell Carter Jr
    8 Trae Young
    9 Mikal Bridges
    10 Collin Sexton
    11 Miles Bridges
    12 Kevin Knox
    13 Lonnie Walker
    14 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
    15 Robert Williams
    16 Zhaire Smith
    17 Troy Brown
    17 Khyri Thomas
    17 Keita Bates-Diop
    17 Aaron Holiday
    17 Mitchell Robinson
    17 Dzanan Musa
    17 Anfernee Simons
    17 Jacob Evans
    17 De'Anthony Melton
    17 Landry Shamet

    27 Donte DiVincenzo
    28 Chandler Hutchison
    29 Kevin Huerter
    30 Elie Okobo
    31 Gary Trent Jr
    32 Jalen Brunson
    33 Grayson Allen
    34 Omari Spellman
    35 Jerome Robinson
    36 Josh Okogie
    37 Bruce Brown
    38 Melvin Frazier
    39 Trevon Duval
    40 Rawle Alkins
    41 Moritz Wagner
    42 Jevon Carter
    43 Hamidou Diallo
    44 Rodions Kurucs
    45 Brandon McCoy
    46 Chimezie Metu
    47 Devonte Graham
    48 Shake Milton
    49 Kevin Hervey
    50 Jarred Vanderbilt
    50 Tony Carr
    50 Raymond Spalding
    50 Justin Jackson
    50 Isaac Bonga
    50 Arnoldas Kulboka
    50 Kenrich Williams
    50 Brian Bowen

    58 Malik Newman
    59 Devon Hall
    60 Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk

    For full data see https://www.physics.byu.edu/faculty/colton/nba mock draft compilation 2018 - v.1.0.htm; sorry about the messed up formatting of the hyperlinks there but I don't have time to fix that.

    Some observations about where the Jazz pick:

    Pick 21
    * The "best guesses" for pick 21, if there is such a thing, are all the players tied at 17: Troy Brown, Khyri Thomas, Keita Bates-Diop, Aaron Holiday, Mitchell Robinson, Dzanan Musa, Anfernee Simons, Jacob Evans, De'Anthony Melton, Landry Shamet.
    * The highest ranked player that any of the mock drafts have available at pick 21 is Lonnie Walker.
    * The highest ranked player that any of the mock drafts have the Jazz picking at pick 21 is Troy Brown. Two mocks have the Jazz selecting him.

    Pick 52
    * The "best guess" for pick 52 is: (there is no current best guess).
    * The highest ranked player that any of the mock drafts have available at pick 52 is Aaron Holiday.
    * The highest ranked player that any of the mock drafts have the Jazz picking at pick 52 is Elie Okobo. One mock has the Jazz selecting him.


    ----

    Ranking details: I used the following mock drafts as "voters" for the best players. That is, I assumed they ranked the players in the order that they felt like the players deserved to be drafted. (This is an incorrect assumption, because some mock drafts account for perceived team need, but it should be close.) Then I used the "instant run-off voting" algorithm in a program I wrote to deduce who deserved to be ranked in the top spot, then in the second spot, then in the third spot, and so forth. See here for details on that algorithm: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instant-runoff_voting. Where the players ended up tied, I used their median and average rankings (in that order) to be the tie-breakers in how I listed them.

    Mock drafts used (in no particular order):
    https://www.si.com/nba/2018/06/05/2...r-jr-marvin-bagley-suns-kings-grizzlies-hawks Jeremoy Woo Jun 5
    https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/b...ncic-bamba-bagley-young-porter-carter-bridges Mark Strotman Jun 5
    http://netscoutsbasketball.com/scouting/2018-nba-mock-draft/ Carl Berman? Jun 5
    http://www.nbadraft.net/2018mock_draft ? Jun 5
    https://www.cbssports.com/college-b...rojection-is-dominated-by-big-men-at-the-top/ Matt Norlander Jun 5
    http://www.basketballinsiders.com/nba-daily-2018-60-pick-nba-mock-draft-6-5-18/ Steve Kyler Jun 5
    https://nbadraft.theringer.com/?_ga=2.162234751.2125459334.1528302899-472487641.1528302899 Kevin O'Connor Jun 4
    http://www.nbadraftroom.com/p/2018-nba-mock-draft.html ? Jun 2
    http://walterfootball.com/nbadraft2018mock.php David Kay Jun 2
    https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/...d-before-grizzlies-can-pounce-with-no-4-pick/ Gary Parrish Jun 2

    If you have suggestions/requests for other mocks that should be included, let me know.
     
    Last edited: Jun 6, 2018
  2. Jack Strop

    Jack Strop Well-Known Member

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    Would rep if I could.
    This is great. Thanks for compiling.
     
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  3. Xthren

    Xthren Well-Known Member

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    ditto
     
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  4. Qman

    Qman Well-Known Member

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    Out of the players available to us I would pick Bonga in the 2nd round. The first round is harder. Probably Troy Brown if he is available.
     
  5. Jingled

    Jingled Well-Known Member 2019 Award Winner

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    I think Huerter is going to go a lot higher than 29th.
     
    Revolution 9 and rare144 like this.
  6. gomretat

    gomretat Well-Known Member

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    Was looking forward to seeing this list again this year. Great job Colton.
     
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  7. Et tu Brute

    Et tu Brute Well-Known Member

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    I'm still trying to understand how either Doncic or Ayton go number 1. Each have some questionable areas.. Ayton - really a number #1 pick on a 6-11 guy who only has a serviceable jumper and limited rim protection? And Doncic - the best thing about the kid are the historic numbers he has put up. But surely if he is not an elite athlete, his shooting would need to improve?

    I'd be tempted moving down in this draft and getting an athletic two way beast. Or move down and take a punt on Trae Young or someone who has superstar potential (albeit small)
     
  8. Rubashov

    Rubashov Well-Known Member 2019 Award Winner

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    Hey colton can we get a comparison btw your prediction last season and the final draft standings please????
     
  9. Bawse Dawg

    Bawse Dawg Well-Known Member

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    Who should go ahead of them?
     
  10. Et tu Brute

    Et tu Brute Well-Known Member

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    I am not a draft oficionada..
    But those guys look like pretty average top 2 picks..
     
  11. Bawse Dawg

    Bawse Dawg Well-Known Member

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    Well someone has to go #1 and 2. And if no one else is better then you have your answer.
     
  12. Handlogten's Heros

    Handlogten's Heros Well-Known Member 2019 Award Winner

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    Both guys are worthy of #1.

    People sleeping on Doncic are straight dumb. He's got some baby fat... he's taking that fat *** and kicking grown men up and down the court as a damned 18 year old. He did it at worlds against nba guys... dude is the truth.

    I have doubts about how motivated Ayton is but physically holy ****... He was very productive but had a seemingly lackadaisical approach to college ball at times. Ben Simmons had some of the same vibe so it might just be realizing that college ball is just the year before the real stuff starts.
     
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  13. colton

    colton All Around Nice Guy Staff Member

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    Yes, I looked at that after the actual draft--how did my "instant runoff" predictions compare to the actual results, and how did the various mock drafts do in their own predictions? There are lots of ways how to rank the quality of the mocks' guesses; in the end I used a complicated formula that I don't want to take the time to explain here. Also, I couldn't figure out a good way to compare the mocks that only had the first round to those that had both rounds, so I just used the mocks that had both rounds in this comparison.

    rank mock draft
    1 http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-mock-draft/2017/
    2 median
    3 mean
    4 instant runoff
    5 http://www.drafttek.com/2017-NBA-Draft/2017-NBA-Mock-Draft-Round-1.asp
    6 https://nbadraft.theringer.com/
    7 http://www.nbadraft.net/2017mock_draft
    8 http://walterfootball.com/nbadraft2017mock.php
    9 http://www.nba.com/article/2017/06/...collection=writer/archive/scott-howard-cooper
    10 http://www.mynbadraft.com/NBA-Mock-Draft
    11 http://www.nbadraftroom.com/p/2017-nba-mock-draft.html
    12 http://netscoutsbasketball.com/scouting/2016-nba-mock-draft/
    13 http://www.basketballinsiders.com/nba-am-final-mock-of-the-2017-nba-draft/

    Interestingly, using a composite ranking such as median, mean, or instant runoff, was more accurate than any one mock draft except for Jonathan Givony's mock from draftexpress. (He was hired by ESPN, so draftexpress is no more.)

    If you're just interested in my own compiled instant runoff prediction, here's how that ended up:

    actual draft player instant runoff prediction
    1 Markelle Fultz 1
    2 Lonzo Ball 2
    3 Jayson Tatum 4
    4 Josh Jackson 3
    5 De'Aaron Fox 5
    6 Jonathan Isaac 6
    7 Lauri Markkanen 7
    8 Frank Ntilikina 10
    9 Dennis Smith 9
    10 Zach Collins 11
    11 Malik Monk 8
    12 Luke Kennard 13
    13 Donavan Mitchell 12
    14 Bam Adebayo 23
    15 Justin Jackson 15
    16 Justin Patton 18
    17 D.J. Wilson 25
    18 T.J. Leaf 20
    19 John Collins 15
    20 Harry Giles 18
    21 Terrance Ferguson 22
    22 Jarrett Allen 17
    23 OG Anunoby 14
    24 Tyler Lydon 26
    25 Anzejs Pasecniks 24
    26 Caleb Swanigan 31
    27 Kyle Kuzma 35
    28 Tony Bradley 36
    29 Derrick White 34
    30 Josh Hart 37
    31 Frank Jackson 33
    32 Davon Reed 65
    33 Wesley Iwundu 38
    34 Frank Mason 48
    35 Ivan Rabb 27
    36 Jonah Bolden 39
    37 Semi Ojeleye 27
    38 Jordan Bell 30
    39 Jawun Evans 32
    40 Dwayne Bacon 60
    41 Tyler Dorsey 49
    42 Thomas Bryant 45
    43 Isaiah Hartenstein 27
    44 Damyean Dotson 49
    45 Dillon Brooks 43
    46 Sterling Brown 47
    47 Ike Anigbogu 21
    48 Sindarius Thornwell 49
    49 Vlatko Cancar 61
    50 Mathias Lessort 40
    51 Monte Morris 49
    52 Edmond Sumner 46
    53 Kadeem Allen 70
    54 Alec Peters 42
    55 Nigel Williams-Goss 65
    56 Jabari Bird 79
    57 Aleksandar Vezenkov 69
    58 Ognjen Jaramaz 79
    59 Jaron Blossomgame 49
    60 Alpha Kaba 49
     
  14. Shad

    Shad Well-Known Member

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    If we take Elie, is it safe to say that the Jazz are ready to move on from Exum?
     
  15. Bawse Dawg

    Bawse Dawg Well-Known Member

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    Nope
     
  16. mellow

    mellow Well-Known Member

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    Interesting how last years results compares with this years predictions. Few variations 1-16(ish) then it becomes anyone's guess.
     

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