How much should we be talking about Donovan?

[Sandman822]

That's not as concerning. He's not a very good 3 point shooter. He'll have to work on improving that throughout his career. The other issues are more easily adjustable.

That's why I'm concerned though. The offense needs him to take a lot and he is shooting close to 7 threes a game this season while shooting 29.1% from there which is frankly awful for the volume he's shooting them on. He's getting 2.5 wide open looks a game from deep and is only shooting 32.1%, and unlike last year where the defenders guarding his closer didn't completely tank his 3pt% (last year he was 35.1% on wide open looks, 34.5% on open looks, and 32.3% on tight looks from deep, this year he's 32.1% on the wide open looks, 30.6% on open looks, and an awful 16.1% on tight looks. The significant drop in efficiency is mainly from catch and shoot situations, where he went from 40.6% in his rookie year from deep (which is great) to 29.9% on catch and shoots this year.

The other issues are easily adjustable which is why I'm not as concerned by them as I am by his 3pt shot disappearing. It was never a great shot but 34% in his rookie season is a very significant improvement over his current 29.1% figure, and if the Jazz are willing to wait through his struggles attacking the paint then he really needs to be cashing in on more of those open looks from deep he is getting.

edit: I should note that I'm talking almost exclusively about Mitchell as a scorer with my concerns. I've noted plenty of times previously that Mitchell's inability to run the point or playmake consistently for others is my #1 concern with him overall.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

That's why I'm concerned though. The offense needs him to take a lot and he is shooting close to 7 threes a game this season while shooting 29.1% from there which is frankly awful for the volume he's shooting them on. He's getting 2.5 wide open looks a game from deep and is only shooting 32.1%, and unlike last year where the defenders guarding his closer didn't completely tank his 3pt% (last year he was 35.1% on wide open looks, 34.5% on open looks, and 32.3% on tight looks from deep, this year he's 32.1% on the wide open looks, 30.6% on open looks, and an awful 16.1% on tight looks. The significant drop in efficiency is mainly from catch and shoot situations, where he went from 40.6% in his rookie year from deep (which is great) to 29.9% on catch and shoots this year.

The other issues are easily adjustable which is why I'm not as concerned by them as I am by his 3pt shot disappearing. It was never a great shot but 34% in his rookie season is a very significant improvement over his current 29.1% figure, and if the Jazz are willing to wait through his struggles attacking the paint then he really needs to be cashing in on more of those open looks from deep he is getting.

edit: I should note that I'm talking almost exclusively about Mitchell as a scorer with my concerns. I've noted plenty of times previously that Mitchell's inability to run the point or playmake consistently for others is my #1 concern with him overall.

I think open three point shooting can swing in a small sample. I trust his form and his FT shooting is solid. I think the open spot up shooting will move closer to the 40% he was last year... or high 30s.

His scoring ceiling will be dictated by his ability to develop the off the dribble three. He can get it whenever he wants right now and if defenses have to take it away he will be able to punish them.

If he got to the line a bit more his efficiency would improve and he’d be less susceptible to the big swings.

If his playmaking improves he along with those things he’d be an mvp candidate type... if he could be the pg we need it opens up what we can put around him.

Lots of ifs but I don’t think they are completely unreachable. Unlikely to figure out all three but that’s the type of thing that would need to happen for us to get to championship level... unless we land another all star caliber player.

 

[str8line]

That's why I'm concerned though. The offense needs him to take a lot and he is shooting close to 7 threes a game this season while shooting 29.1% from there which is frankly awful for the volume he's shooting them on. He's getting 2.5 wide open looks a game from deep and is only shooting 32.1%, and unlike last year where the defenders guarding his closer didn't completely tank his 3pt% (last year he was 35.1% on wide open looks, 34.5% on open looks, and 32.3% on tight looks from deep, this year he's 32.1% on the wide open looks, 30.6% on open looks, and an awful 16.1% on tight looks. The significant drop in efficiency is mainly from catch and shoot situations, where he went from 40.6% in his rookie year from deep (which is great) to 29.9% on catch and shoots this year.

The other issues are easily adjustable which is why I'm not as concerned by them as I am by his 3pt shot disappearing. It was never a great shot but 34% in his rookie season is a very significant improvement over his current 29.1% figure, and if the Jazz are willing to wait through his struggles attacking the paint then he really needs to be cashing in on more of those open looks from deep he is getting.

edit: I should note that I'm talking almost exclusively about Mitchell as a scorer with my concerns. I've noted plenty of times previously that Mitchell's inability to run the point or playmake consistently for others is my #1 concern with him overall.

His tight looks 3 pt percentage went from 32.3% to 16.1%? That must be because last year he had a consistent elevation to his shot. Maybe it's that he can't rise like he could last year.

 

[Jazz]

I think open three point shooting can swing in a small sample. I trust his form and his FT shooting is solid. I think the open spot up shooting will move closer to the 40% he was last year... or high 30s.

His scoring ceiling will be dictated by his ability to develop the off the dribble three. He can get it whenever he wants right now and if defenses have to take it away he will be able to punish them.

If he got to the line a bit more his efficiency would improve and he’d be less susceptible to the big swings.

If his playmaking improves he along with those things he’d be an mvp candidate type... if he could be the pg we need it opens up what we can put around him.

Lots of ifs but I don’t think they are completely unreachable. Unlikely to figure out all three but that’s the type of thing that would need to happen for us to get to championship level... unless we land another all star caliber player.

He's just not that good

 

[Sandman822]

I think open three point shooting can swing in a small sample. I trust his form and his FT shooting is solid. I think the open spot up shooting will move closer to the 40% he was last year... or high 30s.

His scoring ceiling will be dictated by his ability to develop the off the dribble three. He can get it whenever he wants right now and if defenses have to take it away he will be able to punish them.

If he got to the line a bit more his efficiency would improve and he’d be less susceptible to the big swings.

If his playmaking improves he along with those things he’d be an mvp candidate type... if he could be the pg we need it opens up what we can put around him.

Lots of ifs but I don’t think they are completely unreachable. Unlikely to figure out all three but that’s the type of thing that would need to happen for us to get to championship level... unless we land another all star caliber player.

I agree for the most part with this, he doesn't even need to be a full time PG but he just needs to be able to do it for stretches of a game. Only thing I'd disagree with is the off the dribble 3 being the offensive ceiling, to me he's more of an inside-out player where his offensive ceiling will be based around how effective he is in the paint and at the rim (which includes getting to the FT line) and his 3pt shot is there to compliment his ability to attack the paint that rather than an outside-in player like Curry where he's so great of a 3pt shooter that the immediate threat for Curry defensively is to take away his three, and he gets to the rim to keep defenses honest and compliment his shooting.

His tight looks 3 pt percentage went from 32.3% to 16.1%? That must be because last year he had a consistent elevation to his shot. Maybe it's that he can't rise like he could last year.

Could honestly be a big reason why if he's still banged up. I think he really needs the ASB to get himself together a bit.

 

[str8line]

If we're talking about efficiency how much should TO avg. play into things? Dante is pretty good with the ball.

 

[Sandman822]

If we're talking about efficiency how much should TO avg. play into things? Dante is pretty good with the ball.

Exum's PPP using the same formula I calculated Mitchell's on is 0.9443 [273 / (225 - 14 + 42 + (0.44 x 82))] so he actually goes up because of his ability to get to the FT line and his low TOs when it comes to PPS vs PPP which isn't really what you would expect from a guard. Typically big men see a bump when it comes to PPP because they're not turning it over as much since they don't control the ball all that often and they're finishing more possessions with shots rather than assists, so that's a credit to Exum's ability to get to the line and look after the ball.

Rubio plummets all the way down to 0.8236 PPP [470 / (422 - 13 + 115 + (0.44 x106))] compared to his 0.9 PPS, but again it's absolutely worth noting that PPP doesn't include assists which is Rubio's main strength

 

[str8line]

Exum's PPP using the same formula I calculated Mitchell's on is 0.9443 [273 / (225 - 14 + 42 + (0.44 x 82))] so he actually goes up because of his ability to get to the FT line and his low TOs when it comes to PPS vs PPP which isn't really what you would expect from a guard. Typically big men see a bump when it comes to PPP because they're not turning it over as much since they don't control the ball all that often and they're finishing more possessions with shots rather than assists, so that's a credit to Exum's ability to get to the line and look after the ball.

Rubio plummets all the way down to 0.8236 PPP [470 / (422 - 13 + 115 + (0.44 x106))] compared to his 0.9 PPS, but again it's absolutely worth noting that PPP doesn't include assists which is Rubio's main strength

Great info Sandman.

 

[Dali]

Sandman you've been killing it in this thread the last few pages.

 

[carolinajazz]

I'm more concerned about Mitchell shooting 32% on wide open 3s (defender further than 6ft away) than I am about his questionable shots where he drives into 2 or more defenders and forces up a shot to be honest.

....well, neither one is good. If you can't hit a decent percentage of wide open 3's, then you shouldn't be taking them or keep them to a minimum! But there is absolutely NO excuse for constantly driving to the basket with 2 guys draped all over you and forcing up a shot that has little, if any chance of going in! Both could be classified as "forcing shots" and that's never a good thing! We don't have to concern ourselves about offensive rebounds......IF we are taking good shots to begin with....because there will be NO NEED for an offensive rebound! If this kid doesn't come around and start playing better basketball, we are going to continue losing games we should be winning. He certainly has the potential to do better. Let's hope he's getting the message from his coaches!

 

[Dali]

Well we should all know that Donovan was never really a good shooter, not in college either. I'm of course not saying he won't improve in the NBA. but there's a precedence thus far.

 

[carolinajazz]

Well we should all know that Donovan was never really a good shooter, not in college either. I'm of course not saying he won't improve in the NBA. but there's a precedence thus far.

Well, he sure was hot and stayed hot a number of games during his rookie year! What happened this year? I'm clueless!