Well said.
Extend Favors. 3y-45mil
- Thread starter Jazzman_86
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Jack Strop
Well-Known Member
Fantastic. If a Tobias Harris or Middleton wants to come to SLC, count me in. But I'm skeptical. Lindsey is bidding against several other teams. Boozer was the best Utah could ever do, other than big name players on their last legs. And even at that, Boozer was a fairly unproven player and the market was just two teams: Utah and Denver. One team was going to end up with Boozer; the other with KMart.
I think the best case are players like Mirotic. In which case, Utah CAN afford to keep Favors. But I wouldn't extend him. I'd just exercise his option after Lindsey has gotten a "no" from the tier 1 and 2 FA's. Favors is the best backup center in the league. And we just saw when Gobert is hopelessly outmatched physically (which is alarming for a supposed DPOY), Favors can bring the toughness Rudy doesn't.
What really hurts is Lindsey's inability to draft good, young prospects (outside of Gobert and Mitchell). It's either a hit every three years or a complete whiff. That prevents him from bundling players in a trade. No one is going to give up all-star talent to rebuild around Exum, O'Neale, Allen, Bradley, etc.
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LoPo
Well-Known Member
I agree that Mirotic is probably the type of guy we can realistically get this summer. And that scares the heck out of me. If he signs to what he's making now, that's okay I guess. I would just hate to spend Favors type money on him and he declines rapidly due to age and limited athleticism. I'll be really interested in seeing how he does in the playoffs surrounded by all that talent in Milwaukee.
As for Favors, I really don't want to just pick up his $17 million option. I hope we can extend him to a smaller number. If we just pick up his $17 million option, that gives us roughly $13 million to spend to upgrade the team. It's going to be really hard to make improvements if all we do is dump Rubio and spend $13. Even if we use that to get Mirotic, are we improving that much?
The Jazz Wonderbra
Well-Known Member
I think Donovan and Gobert make utah a better FA destination. I also think that times are changing as far as FA destinations go. Sure, new york has an appeal. But so does no traffic. Marketing can be done from a studio in Alaska so being in OKC didnt limit Durants marketability like before. There is a reason that the Lakers have sucked for years...
That being said, Utah needs to perform well and players will want to come. Is it a slam dunk? No way. But is it still our best shot at a trophy? Probably barring a slick draft pick.
ghsartin
Well-Known Member
I think we have to be careful to no watch Favors through rosy glasses. According to basketball-reference.com, the difference between how the team performs (per 100 possessions) when he is on court in comparison with when he is not is only +0.5 this season. Last season, it was -1.9; the season before, -1.6; in 2015-16, zero; in 2014-15, +3.6; in 2013-14, -0.8; in 2012-13, zero; in 2011-12, -2.6; in 22 games with the Jazz in 2010-11, -8.1. That means Favors, throughout his career, had either a negligible or a negative impact in most seasons. I concede that Snyder has finally found a suitable role for him on offense: just finishing off passes without even dribbling most of the time — let's call it "the Clint Capela role". Not posting up meant less stress on his body — and he seems to be even regaining some of his spring lately —, but that also means he is strickly a role player now, and one with a history of healthy problems.
As a role player with no upside, he should be paid as a role player. I would offer him an extension of 3y-36mil for starters, and go as far as 4y-60mil, but with the last year as a team option — if that is possible.
As a role player with no upside, he should be paid as a role player. I would offer him an extension of 3y-36mil for starters, and go as far as 4y-60mil, but with the last year as a team option — if that is possible.
campaignist
Well-Known Member
If the offense coming from the 1 and 3 spots is significantly upgraded, sure. If there is no sufficient upgrade at 4, sure.
Otherwise, as big a fan of favors as I am, keeping him is treading water.
Otherwise, as big a fan of favors as I am, keeping him is treading water.
idestroyedthetoilet
Well-Known Member
Favors has been an absolute beast this entire time. It took one bad game by Rudy for fans to see it.
Once again, Favors is in 5 of the top 6 5-man units that have played 25 minutes or more. The problem isnt DF it's tha Utah has Rudy. Any team would be lucky to have him on a cheap $15 million per year contract. He puts up Steven Adams value play and Adams gets 25-28 this and next two.
LoPo
Well-Known Member
Cmon man. @ghsartin just posted an amazing set of stats. Favors is a great dude, and a pretty good player. Comparing him to Adams is an insult to Adams. Favors could be a pretty good starting C, but Adams is a top 5 NBA center in my book.
I want to keep Favors because I primarily want him to provide 12 amazing C minutes when we need to rest Gobert. If he can also provide another good 10-12 minutes at PF each night, then great. I just don't think he should be paid what he is making this year. We had the luxury this year to give it, but we could miss out on some opportunities if we just pay him $17 again. Favors isn't getting $15+ on a multiyear guaranteed contract anywhere else so we should offer 3 years and $36 or maybe 4 years $50.
idestroyedthetoilet
Well-Known Member
Cool. 5-man unit stats are pretty good too.
idestroyedthetoilet
Well-Known Member
Maybe LoPo can preach to us what stat matters more to team winning than how 5 men play together. IMO that stat, the one that shows who wins together and who doesn't, matters a lot. It's not a stat that can be used manipulatively easily, other than outlier scenarios from low quality of opponent on the floor (starter vs bench, injuries). Add enough units and minutes together and the manipulative use from low sample size gets washed away.
LoPo doesnt think 5-man unit stats are any good since they consistently shows Favors has value. He tried arguing last year that Utah's 2nd best unit with a whopping +110 over 447 minutes wasn't any good because it contained Favors and Gobert. For comparison, GSW's best lineup was +75 last year over 408 minutes and included 2 MVP's, a DPOY All Star, and a 4th All Star.
LoPo doesnt think 5-man unit stats are any good since they consistently shows Favors has value. He tried arguing last year that Utah's 2nd best unit with a whopping +110 over 447 minutes wasn't any good because it contained Favors and Gobert. For comparison, GSW's best lineup was +75 last year over 408 minutes and included 2 MVP's, a DPOY All Star, and a 4th All Star.
LoPo
Well-Known Member
#1 - I don't preach
#2 - I'm a firm believer that stats could be found to support any side of almost any argument
#3 - when I see Favors and Gobert play alongside each other against a really good opponent in the playoffs who can go small, then I will have a little more faith in a lineup containing both of them. The Clippers without hurt Blake or the Thunder with worthless Melo worked in our favor. Houston and GS not so much. So far this year, Quin seems to play the two of them apart as much as he plays them together. If they were so incredible together, wouldn't he play all or most of their minutes together like he does with Ingles and Favors?
I am on record saying I like Favors and we need to keep him. I hesitate to think he will play a ton of minutes next to Gobert if we become a contender, but I still want to have him around regardless.
Go Jazz
idestroyedthetoilet
Well-Known Member
From what I've read from you, which is plenty, we are virtually in agreement on the DF situation. Where we disagree us his value/contribution so feel free to beat me up over my support for a great Utah Jazz player. I would have hated to see him traded away as a garbage throw in as you've proposed numerous times, but I also realize the need for a big's services isn't valued what it used to be and the league is somewhat flooded at center. Almost every team seems to have a DF type player these days - Nurcik in POR, Adam's in OKC - an untouchable C, can't afford one, or have nothing worth trading for him that matches salaries. So there's a good possibility Utah loses him for nothing just like the Millsap situation. I think that's unfortunate but it is what it is and I think he will make another team very happy. If he stays then Utah is stuck, but uve been saying we're stuck for a long time so I've resigned to the fact that this team is what we got so DL might as well squeeze what he can out of it. Maybe that's with Favors, maybe not.
Long enough ramble?
LoPo
Well-Known Member
My opinion on Favors has changed substantially this season. I used to think he was an awful fit and we should stop running anything for him. I thought he was overpaid and had value elsewhere which via trade could fetch us necessary value for our goals and needs.
However, I have come to realize that in addition to his off the court contributions, Quin has turned Favors into a very necessary component. In the past, we worried about running stuff for him to make him happy whereas this year, we give him the opportunity to make plays outside of set plays. Outside of Ingles and Favors PnR, most of his contributions come off of other stuff. When he roams free and hustles, he's the type guy who very often finds himself in perfect positions for lobs, putbacks, quick passes underneath, etc. When he's a very good spatially aware player. He doesn't excel when we force feed plays to him but when he just finds the play when things start breaking down.
But one thing where we disagree - Favors isn't our Jokic or Adams. Favors is our Haslem, Lamar Odom, Tristan Thompson or similar. He'll never be an all star, but he's a rock in the lockerroom and sometimes lifts the team when we need it. He's a career 11ppg, 7rpg guy. That's just who he is but he's still so valuable for us.
All that said, he's even more valuable to us if he takes $10-12 per year. Not only does he give us kind of a discount, but he in return also gets unconditional love from the fans because he is giving a discount.
One Brow
Well-Known Member
You mean, the +/- stats that rely heavily on whom the player is in the rotation with?
LoPo
Well-Known Member
Yeah, I agree. It's an imperfect measure. However, Favors plays half his minutes with starters and the other half leading the 2nd unit. I would love to see a more detailed breakdown.
I'm on record now saying I want to keep Favors. 2 months ago, I thought we should keep Rubio at around $10 with Favors being expendable.
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idestroyedthetoilet
Well-Known Member
Favors hasn't been used differently much at all. The vast majority of his shots are still within 5 feet. He may be getting about 1/2 mid-range shot a game less from the right elbow to the 3, but that's about it. He's playing less too so his shots there are going to be down anyway.
idestroyedthetoilet
Well-Known Member
He was using team - opponent Ortg. DM's team Ortg is +0.6 and opponent Ortg -1.2, for a combined score of 1.8.
BR uses Dean Oliver's nonsense Ortg, which is different than the NBA metric. The formula is so outlandishly long and full of assumptions that it's pretty useless, and nonsensical to plug in as a team metric to measure an individual's impact. What does team missed freethrows or team o rebounds have to do with Favors alone? How does AST_PART = 0.5 * (((Team_PTS - TM_FTM) - (PTS -FTM)) / (2 * (Team_FGA - FGA))) * AST translate into anything meaningful at all on an individual basis let alone used nonsensically in a team concept to somehow measure an individual's impact? That's just one portion of the meaningless formula. This metric tells us nothing of how utah does or does not perform while Favors is on the court as @ghsartin said it does.
To be fair most draft picks are "whiffs" to varying degrees. It is really a crap shoot. More than a dozen teams passed on Stockton and Malone. One passed on Jordan, the most-hyped sure-fire pick until LBJ came along. And the later you pick the worse the odds. And we typically don't pick very early in the draft. Bundling assets to move from 14 to 9 only marginally improves the odds.
Well, Favors is under contract next season already. Sign the max guy this year and then sign a bigger extension with Favors. You can go over to re-sign your guys.
campaignist
Well-Known Member
I've started to think that the Golden State model could work for Utah if it's tweaked to our roster.
Their defense, and offense, to a degree starts inside with whatever C they use and Draymond Green. that frees up the offense 1-4
to bomb away. The overall league trend is to build outside first-with Rudy and Favors, maybe Utah should build inside out.
This would mean keeping Rudy and Derrick, but upgrading a lot 1-3 on offense. So a Middleton/Mitchell/Conley-esque route. You shut teams down on the inside, then kill them on defense from SF/SG/PG and the bench. This puts Ingles, Exum, Neto, etc. on the bench so they can be more effective.
This model improves consistency all 48 minutes. A huge problem has been the offense dipping randomly in the middle of games-you solve this and that means a 3rd seed at least. There is enough cap flexibility to do this.
Their defense, and offense, to a degree starts inside with whatever C they use and Draymond Green. that frees up the offense 1-4
to bomb away. The overall league trend is to build outside first-with Rudy and Favors, maybe Utah should build inside out.
This would mean keeping Rudy and Derrick, but upgrading a lot 1-3 on offense. So a Middleton/Mitchell/Conley-esque route. You shut teams down on the inside, then kill them on defense from SF/SG/PG and the bench. This puts Ingles, Exum, Neto, etc. on the bench so they can be more effective.
This model improves consistency all 48 minutes. A huge problem has been the offense dipping randomly in the middle of games-you solve this and that means a 3rd seed at least. There is enough cap flexibility to do this.