I think Tobias is the most likely.... I've been listening to some national podcasts and they really kind of challenge the idea they would even offer a regular max. I think they effed up and panic traded for Harris because they though Jimmy was leaving, but that may have been a mistake.
If they don't offer 5 year max I'm not sure why Harris would stay. I think the 5 year deal is more appealing to Butler than Tobias. I think they cave and offer 5 years to Jimmy... I think its 50/50 whether Tobias signs in Philly or somewhere else. Embiid and Simmons really don't compliment his game... if Butler stays it would be even worse... Tobias is basically the glue guy that makes those guys work. He may want the money and may be cool with that, but he'd have a great role here and Rudy does a lot that would help him. Embiid is great but he's not good in the screen and roll game... it sounds dumb but Rudy is such a good and willing screen setter... Harris and Rudy pick and rolls would be noice.
DM is our only mouth to feed right now... and when he isn't on ball he's a 40% catch and shoot guy... so it will help Tobias.
It comes down to what Tobias values... he said culture and fit. $50M may trump that, but it is reasonable to think a 3+1 player option max might help him recoup the lost $50M on the 5th year. He also has to know that if they max him and Butler the sixers will be moving one of Harris, Simmons, Butler, or Embiid after a year.