Use Theirs First

[Miggs]

Let’s all take a guess. How low does the Dow Jones and NASDAQ each go by the end of 2021?

 

[babe]

Let’s all take a guess. How low does the Dow Jones and NASDAQ each go by the end of 2021?

That's only a little more than two years out. One year from now it's high tide election season. If the dems win 2020....lessee.... a capitalist dem with green ideas and panic to save the world through regulations..... 1600, 800 if a Young Turk designated hitter bags it. If Trump wins, and the Rs take the house back.... without Ryan..... we might get a good budget in place by then. But still, it's people who hold the ownership of companies, people who can panic over bad news of any kind.

I think the most serious thing in politics today is China. I thought the Japanese were bad for industrial patriotic technology scavenging. Dunno why societies with such strong cultural values on fitting in just don't get much technology going themselves. But the Chinese are systematically hauling everything in.... just don't have anyone with the clarity of understanding to really use it well. While they are building missiles and nuclear bombs, we're building neutron beam satellites that can blow up a nuke in the air, close to the silo.... even in the silo. Nukes are just worthless now.

It's power plants we need. Nuclear power plants.

If only China decided to just be one of several "brother leading nations" and devoted to peaceful technologies and equal partnerships in business and world issues.... They have the best shot at real growth economically.

I kinda like Trump's style. It's a new day in China and the USA. Dow Jones and NASDAQ are inflation hedges. Until we get a budget, they will go up beyond any precedents...... 30k if Trump wins in Nov 2020. Maybe 33K will be the point where the needed re-evaluation process cuts in, but it will only go down to where we are now.

 

[fishonjazz]

It's a well known fact that there's a secret society of the five wealthiest people in the world, known as the Pentaverate, who run everything in the world, including the newspapers, and meet triannually at a secret country mansion in Colorado known as "The Meadows." This includes the Queen, the Vatican, the Gettys, the Rothschilds, and Colonel Sanders before he went **** up.

Is this serious or not?
I'm thinking not simply based on the two people who "liked" it

Sent from my ONEPLUS A6013 using JazzFanz mobile app

 

[infection]

Is this serious or not?
I'm thinking not simply based on the two people who "liked" it

Sent from my ONEPLUS A6013 using JazzFanz mobile app

I’ve mentioned before that no political persuasion holds a monopoly on conspiracy theory. In contemporary sociopolitical discourse, major media outlets leaning left may portray conspiracy theory as a uniquely right-leaning phenomenon, with only the smallest of wild outliers on the left. But, at the same time, possess enough arousal to justify their own world views, that their own conspiracy is such scintillating pornography for their mind that it passes undetected.

But, remove the perceived partisan divide of good conspiracy and you’ll see some incredibly widespread embrace, and should come as no shock that Zombie and I may have some common ground on the wealthy and powerful. It’s a well known fact, sonny-jim.

 

[framer]

It's a well known fact that there's a secret society of the five wealthiest people in the world, known as the Pentaverate, who run everything in the world, including the newspapers, and meet triannually at a secret country mansion in Colorado known as "The Meadows." This includes the Queen, the Vatican, the Gettys, the Rothschilds, and Colonel Sanders before he went **** up.

Look at this rube that thinks Colonel Sanders actually "died." Last thing you are going to see is Cyborg Sanders turning YOU into Original Recipe. Seven herbs and lacerations.

 

[LogGrad98]

Let’s all take a guess. How low does the Dow Jones and NASDAQ each go by the end of 2021?

6?

 

[idestroyedthetoilet]

10 to 12 months out you're probably safe-ish. Fourth quarter 2020 or first quarter 2021 at the latest the **** is gonna hit the fan - it'll be 2008-like - only much more complicated. And it's not just the inverted yield curve - the red flags are all over the place. World wide manufacturing slowdown, stock buyback slowdown, corporate debt is through the roof, 70% of the country (soon to be much more) with little to no purchasing power. And with politicization of The Fed the interest rate will have nowhere to go but up.

I don't know what data you are looking at. The US consumer is in excellent shape. Betting against that, plus an accommodating Fed, is never wise.

If anything, another global savings glut will be a problem again, but we aren't seeing signs of another bubble building. Unless someone were to incorrectly categorize government debt being used as safety instruments as a speculative investment bubble. It's clearly not, and even if it were it sure as hell ain't bursting.

 

[idestroyedthetoilet]

I’m stockpiling cash and gonna buy my *** off after the **** hits the fan.

I hope for your sake you luck out. 99.99999% get caught in that trap. When the Dow hits 34,000ish and you are looking for that 20% pullback to 27.5, missing all those dividends... calculate out how your hope for an unknown recession, unknown bottom, and unknown prior top, and let us know how you did. You will almost certainly come out well behind in comparison. The 2018 pullback was probably the best opportunity you were going to get and you missed it. Cut your losses and either average in or buy the next 800 point swing.

 

[candrew]

Why do interest rates have to go up in your scenario?

Prior to the last 3 recessions the fed interest rate was somewhere in the 5.25 to 7.75% range. The fed was able to drop the interest rate 4-5% to stimulate the economy. Right now the interest rate is 2.5% - it's pumping trillions of dollars worth of free money to prop up the economy. If Trump has his way it will go even lower. So what happens when the inevitable occurs and corporations and individuals can't carry anymore debt and/or start defaulting and the slowdown begins - the fed has no leverage to stimulate the economy.

This isn't a partisan hit job - this has been going on way before Trump. In fact, Trump himself correctly called this a "false economy" when he was running for president. We're literally in uncharted territory economically.

 

[Hotdog]

Prior to the last 3 recessions the fed interest rate was somewhere in the 5.25 to 7.75% range. The fed was able to drop the interest rate 4-5% to stimulate the economy. Right now the interest rate is 2.5% - it's pumping trillions of dollars worth of free money to prop up the economy. If Trump has his way it will go even lower. So what happens when the inevitable occurs and corporations and individuals can't carry anymore debt and/or start defaulting and the slowdown begins - the fed has no leverage to stimulate the economy.

This isn't a partisan hit job - this has been going on way before Trump. In fact, Trump himself correctly called this a "false economy" when he was running for president. We're literally in uncharted territory economically.

Maybe Im missing something, but I still dont see where you explain why the rates would go up. You basically said the fed has been lowering interest rates, and said really nothing else.

Rates are not balls. They dont bounce off the ground and go up once they hit bottom. In fact, there has been a lot of talk of negative interest rates.

 

[idestroyedthetoilet]

Prior to the last 3 recessions the fed interest rate was somewhere in the 5.25 to 7.75% range.

Rates were 1% prior to the last recession at the beginning of the Fed's tightening cycle. We're lucky to have an environment where tightening to the point of choking off the economy hasn't been necessary (or a dumb Fed that tightens regardless of learned lessons).

The fed was able to drop the interest rate 4-5% to stimulate the economy.

Fed policy intentionally constrains demand (and speculative excesses) through higher rates when the economy is seen to be overheating. Lowering rates frees demand up from their tight grip. If AD stagnates at low, unconstraining rates then there is no demand for the Fed to free up from their constraint.

Right now the interest rate is 2.5% - it's pumping trillions of dollars worth of free money to prop up the economy.

How is 2.5% pumping free money into the economy? Please explain this mysterious mechanism.

So what happens when the inevitable occurs and corporations and individuals can't carry anymore debt and/or start defaulting and the slowdown begins

What else does your chrystal ball show?

You would think this alleged excess debt would show up in inflation, somewhere, anywhere, but it isn't, and so rates are still low.

We're literally in uncharted territory economically.

Rates were realy low in the early 1960's too, and weren't [gradually] tightened to all that high of a level prior to recession. Again, 2003 saw 1%.













I am One Brow

 

[candrew]

Maybe Im missing something, but I still dont see where you explain why the rates would go up. You basically said the fed has been lowering interest rates, and said really nothing else.

Sigh.....I meant if the interest rates are at or near zero at the START of a recession they can't go any lower and the fed will have no power to stimulate the economy. Sorry, I didn't think I had to spell it out for people.

In fact, there has been a lot of talk of negative interest rates.

Right. All time high consumer debt, corporate debt, a massively over-valued stock market and negative interest rates - what could go wrong?