So what Dem candidate has appeal in the midwest? None of them?
Biden and Klobachar have the best appeal in the Midwest. Biden appeals to minorities probably the best out of all the candidates.
We focus on Iowa because it’s the first for the primaries. So if you want to win the nomination, you definitely want to do well in Iowa.
But for the general, Iowa is worthless.
Democrats have a very small margin for error here. Why?
Southern states, like Texas and Georgia, aren’t in play yet. They’re not reliably blue. Give it another election cycle? Sure. But not yet. This means that Democrats need to “steal” a few midwestern states that are increasingly moving away from Democrats and becoming red. The problem is, the party has moved to become more appealing to the younger, more diversified, and the college educated crowd.
So Democrats must walk a tightrope.
They need high turnout from their base. Hence, the appeal to the more liberal wing, Warren and Sanders. But they can’t alienate midwestern states that are conservative. They also need a candidate who appeals to minorities.
So do they roll with someone like Biden or Klobachar, who appeals to minorities and potentially to the more conservative but who does nothing to fire up the base?
So do they roll with someone more liberal, like Warren or Sanders, who fires up the base but potentially turns the more conservative in the Midwest and minorities off?
Or do they swing for someone else, like a Yang or Mayor Pete? Someone young and somewhat of an outsider with the potential to be rolled by Trump due to their inexperience, lack of support from minorities, and/or sexual orientation that turns off large segments of the population?
It’s unfortunate that at this time, when we are facing such a deplorable incumbent president, that Democrats are undergoing an identity crisis. By 2024, I think Democrats will be marketable in the south enough to overcome the electoral college drawbacks. But they’re not there yet.
the nightmare scenario for Dems is to roll with someone like Warren/Sanders and get shut out of both the Midwest and South.
Or roll with Biden/Klobachar and not quite win enough midwestern states to win.
Or roll with the unknown and risk losing everywhere but Democratic strongholds.
The dream scenario would be to win the midwestern states with either the conservative Biden/Klobachar while turning a new page in the south by winning (and receiving aid from trump’s terribleness) texas, Georgia, and Arizona. That would be an electoral college route.
Or winning the Midwest with Sanders/Warren’s populism and getting just enough of the EC. However, I’m not sure if either of them can win many southern states yet.