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Mayor Pete to the top of Iowa polls

I would definitely exercise my right not to vote if it’s between Trump and Pete.

which I’m totally fine with. If you’re too stupid to get informed or just don’t like the candidates, then don’t vote. There’s no shortage of stupid or cynical in this country. After all, trump won the GOP nomination despite there being a plethora of choices.
 
Biden and Klobachar have the best appeal in the Midwest. Biden appeals to minorities probably the best out of all the candidates.

We focus on Iowa because it’s the first for the primaries. So if you want to win the nomination, you definitely want to do well in Iowa.

But for the general, Iowa is worthless.

Democrats have a very small margin for error here. Why?

Southern states, like Texas and Georgia, aren’t in play yet. They’re not reliably blue. Give it another election cycle? Sure. But not yet. This means that Democrats need to “steal” a few midwestern states that are increasingly moving away from Democrats and becoming red. The problem is, the party has moved to become more appealing to the younger, more diversified, and the college educated crowd.

So Democrats must walk a tightrope.

They need high turnout from their base. Hence, the appeal to the more liberal wing, Warren and Sanders. But they can’t alienate midwestern states that are conservative. They also need a candidate who appeals to minorities.

So do they roll with someone like Biden or Klobachar, who appeals to minorities and potentially to the more conservative but who does nothing to fire up the base?

So do they roll with someone more liberal, like Warren or Sanders, who fires up the base but potentially turns the more conservative in the Midwest and minorities off?

Or do they swing for someone else, like a Yang or Mayor Pete? Someone young and somewhat of an outsider with the potential to be rolled by Trump due to their inexperience, lack of support from minorities, and/or sexual orientation that turns off large segments of the population?

It’s unfortunate that at this time, when we are facing such a deplorable incumbent president, that Democrats are undergoing an identity crisis. By 2024, I think Democrats will be marketable in the south enough to overcome the electoral college drawbacks. But they’re not there yet.

the nightmare scenario for Dems is to roll with someone like Warren/Sanders and get shut out of both the Midwest and South.
Or roll with Biden/Klobachar and not quite win enough midwestern states to win.
Or roll with the unknown and risk losing everywhere but Democratic strongholds.

The dream scenario would be to win the midwestern states with either the conservative Biden/Klobachar while turning a new page in the south by winning (and receiving aid from trump’s terribleness) texas, Georgia, and Arizona. That would be an electoral college route.

Or winning the Midwest with Sanders/Warren’s populism and getting just enough of the EC. However, I’m not sure if either of them can win many southern states yet.

The electoral college is the problem. The states like PA, VA, FL, MI, OH usually determine the winner. The democrats need to win the majority of those states to beat the GOP. Even with how bad Trump is, I would be shocked if they won Texas or Georgia. Arizona could be a possibility though.
 
So who is supposed to be the favorite to win the nomination at this point?

At the moment it's between Biden, Warren, Bernie and Buttigieg. Maybe Bloomberg will get some traction with strong debate performances. Klobuchar has some interest.

A Buttigieg-Klobuchar ticket would be interesting.
 
The last paragraph is interesting. I thought she was a little prickly in the last post-debate interview. But she has among the best support from her constituents in the whole Senate and she is among the best, maybe even the best at moving legislation.


From Wikipedia:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amy_Klobuchar



As of September 2009 58% of Minnesotans approved of the job Klobuchar was doing and 36% disapproved.[27] On March 12, 2010, Rasmussen Reportsindicated 67% of Minnesotans approved of the job she was doing. The Winona Daily News described her as a "rare politician who works across the aisle". Walter Mondale said, "She has done better in that miserable Senate than most people there."[28]

At the end of the 114th Congress in late 2016, Klobuchar had passed more legislation than any other senator.[29] In February 2017 she called for an independent, bipartisan commission to investigate ties between Russia and President Donald Trump and his administration. Concern about Trump's ties to Russia increased after reports that his campaign officials had repeated contact with senior Russian intelligence officials before the 2016 United States elections.[30][31] Klobuchar had already signaled her interest in U.S.–Russia relations in December 2016 when she joined Republican senators John McCainand Lindsey Graham on a trip to the Baltic states and Ukraine.[32] She maintained high approval ratings throughout 2017, with an April 2017 Star Tribunepoll placing her approval rating at 72%.[33] In October 2017 Morning Consult listed Klobuchar among the 10 senators with the highest approval ratings, and a November 2017 KSTP-TV poll put her approval rating at 56%.[34][35] An April 2019 Morning Consult poll found Klobuchar to be the third-most popular sitting senator, with a 58% approval rating and 26% disapproval rating, behind only Vermont Senators Bernie Sanders and Patrick Leahy.[3
According to the Center for Effective Lawmaking, Klobuchar scored "above expectations" with respect to how successful she was at moving significant legislation in the 115th Congress (2017-18).[37]

During the Brett Kavanaugh Supreme Court nomination hearings in 2018, Kavanaugh gave heated responses to Klobuchar's questions about whether he had ever experienced memory loss after consuming alcohol, for which he later apologized.[38]

In February 2019 BuzzFeed News reported that Klobuchar's congressional office was "controlled by fear, anger, and shame".[39] Interviews with former staffers indicated that Klobuchar frequently abused and humiliated her employees, with as much staff time spent on managing her rage as on official business.[39] Politico reported that Klobuchar was one of the "worst bosses in Congress", with an annual staff turnover rate between 2011 and 2016 of 36%, the highest of any senator.[40] A Vanity Fair article alleged she had a reputation for cruelty and emotional abuse.[41] In response, 61 former staffers wrote an open letter praising Klobuchar, stating that she was a caring “mentor and friend” to them.[42]
 
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