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Mayor Pete to the top of Iowa polls

Iowa has a disproportionate amount of college educated whites. So it’s no surprise Pete is doing well in Iowa. Warren too. But where Warren and Biden lack appeal is in the Midwest. Especially among non-college educated whites and minorities (regardless of their education level).
 
The Thriller said:
Iowa has a disproportionate amount of college educated whites. So it’s no surprise Pete is doing well in Iowa. Warren too. But where Warren and Biden lack appeal is in the Midwest. Especially among non-college educated whites and minorities (regardless of their education level).
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So what Dem candidate has appeal in the midwest? None of them?
 
cowhide said:
I like Mayor Pete too. The democrats need to get some youth into the party. Biden, Bernie and even Warren are long in the tooth. Besides if Mayor Pete became president the evangelicals would believe the end of the world was coming. The drama would be hilarious.
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If the Republicans can vote in a President as a form of trolling so can the Dems!
 
I think we're looking at a growing likelihood of a "brokered" convention where no one acquires enough delegates through the primaries to win the nomination. I believe under the new rules in this scenario the superdelegates pick the nominee.

Talk about a potential **** show. Imagine Hillary walking into the convention and walking out the nominee?
 
Gameface said:
So what Dem candidate has appeal in the midwest? None of them?
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Biden and Klobachar have the best appeal in the Midwest. Biden appeals to minorities probably the best out of all the candidates.

We focus on Iowa because it’s the first for the primaries. So if you want to win the nomination, you definitely want to do well in Iowa.

But for the general, Iowa is worthless.

Democrats have a very small margin for error here. Why?

Southern states, like Texas and Georgia, aren’t in play yet. They’re not reliably blue. Give it another election cycle? Sure. But not yet. This means that Democrats need to “steal” a few midwestern states that are increasingly moving away from Democrats and becoming red. The problem is, the party has moved to become more appealing to the younger, more diversified, and the college educated crowd.

So Democrats must walk a tightrope.

They need high turnout from their base. Hence, the appeal to the more liberal wing, Warren and Sanders. But they can’t alienate midwestern states that are conservative. They also need a candidate who appeals to minorities.

So do they roll with someone like Biden or Klobachar, who appeals to minorities and potentially to the more conservative but who does nothing to fire up the base?

So do they roll with someone more liberal, like Warren or Sanders, who fires up the base but potentially turns the more conservative in the Midwest and minorities off?

Or do they swing for someone else, like a Yang or Mayor Pete? Someone young and somewhat of an outsider with the potential to be rolled by Trump due to their inexperience, lack of support from minorities, and/or sexual orientation that turns off large segments of the population?

It’s unfortunate that at this time, when we are facing such a deplorable incumbent president, that Democrats are undergoing an identity crisis. By 2024, I think Democrats will be marketable in the south enough to overcome the electoral college drawbacks. But they’re not there yet.

the nightmare scenario for Dems is to roll with someone like Warren/Sanders and get shut out of both the Midwest and South.
Or roll with Biden/Klobachar and not quite win enough midwestern states to win.
Or roll with the unknown and risk losing everywhere but Democratic strongholds.

The dream scenario would be to win the midwestern states with either the conservative Biden/Klobachar while turning a new page in the south by winning (and receiving aid from trump’s terribleness) texas, Georgia, and Arizona. That would be an electoral college route.

Or winning the Midwest with Sanders/Warren’s populism and getting just enough of the EC. However, I’m not sure if either of them can win many southern states yet.
 
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Is mayor Pete an aka for Donald Trump? If not then mayor Pete is my guy.

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Yikes. I dont like that he flip flopped on medicare for all. His health care plan is deceiving when he calls it “m4a for those who want it”. Thats garbage and is not at all M4A. What does he even stand for? Doesnt seem like hes passionate about anything thatll get people excited.


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Gameface said:
So what Dem candidate has appeal in the midwest? None of them?
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Short answer: The poll released last week says Biden:


I personally love Warren. But she’s risky.

I’m also a white college educated male, her base. Ask someone more conservative or a minority, and you might get a different answer.

I don’t like Pete because:
* Identity: I feel like he’s disingenuous. He pretends to be progressive but also tries to be conservative. What is he? I think he’s trying too hard to walk the tightrope and it just doesn’t make sense. If I want a conservative, I’ll go with Biden. If I want a progressive, I’ll go with Warren/Sanders. I want him to serve in Congress for a few years, then I’ll know better what he’s about.
* electability: We’ve recently seen the troubles with electing a minority and trying to elect a woman. Electing a gay man might be the hardest. While I have nothing against homosexuality, I’m not dumb enough to think that there aren’t millions who disagree. I can see millions of independents who don’t like trump but could be scared into voting for Trump because of Pete’s homosexuality.
 
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Let’s just state that ALL of the Democratic candidates would benefit right now if we didn’t have the EC. Even mayor pete. But ask a homosexual man to compete to win states (not votes) in Texas, Florida, Arizona, and the Midwest? Good luck...
 
tonstermits said:
Yikes. I dont like that he flip flopped on medicare for all. His health care plan is deceiving when he calls it “m4a for those who want it”. Thats garbage and is not at all M4A. What does he even stand for? Doesnt seem like hes passionate about anything thatll get people excited.


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This!

He’s the most wishy washy of all the candidates. He’s trying to Marco Rubio it. He’s trying so hard to appeal to both sides of his party that I’m not sure what he stands for.

Love him or hate him, we all know what Sanders stands for.

that’s why if you’re a progressive, why not stick with Warren and Sanders, who’d remain shameless progressives? They leave little doubt what they’re about.
If you’re conservative, why not stick with Biden?
 
cowhide said:
I like Mayor Pete too. The democrats need to get some youth into the party. Biden, Bernie and even Warren are long in the tooth. Besides if Mayor Pete became president the evangelicals would believe the end of the world was coming. The drama would be hilarious.
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It definitely would be.

but evangelicals aren’t the only ones with less than favorable views on homosexuality. Hispanics and African Americans too. And those are key constituencies that you need to turn out if you’re a Democrat and hope to win.

these are the problems we face as a party being so broad and still having to deal with the electoral college. If the EC didn’t matter, then these issues, like homosexuality, would matter less. We’d be competing for voters and not states.
 
The Thriller said:
Short answer: The poll released last week says Biden:


I personally love Warren. But she’s risky.

I’m also a white college educated male, her base. Ask someone more conservative or a minority, and you might get a different answer.

I don’t like Pete because:
* Identity: I feel like he’s disingenuous. He pretends to be progressive but also tries to be conservative. What is he? I think he’s trying too hard to walk the tightrope and it just doesn’t make sense. If I want a conservative, I’ll go with Biden. If I want a progressive, I’ll go with Warren/Sanders. I want him to serve in Congress for a few years, then I’ll know better what he’s about.
* electability: We’ve recently seen the troubles with electing a minority and trying to elect a woman. Electing a gay man might be the hardest. While I have nothing against homosexuality, I’m not dumb enough to think that there aren’t millions who disagree. I can see millions of independents who don’t like trump but could be scared into voting for Trump because of Pete’s homosexuality.
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I agree with the gay part.

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