Coronavirus

[latin jazz]

How can I think anything but? Looking at what is happening in New York it's only worse if you assume that every single case is exactly the number that is being diagnosed. Not a single expert believes that. Most believe that the actual rate of infection is minimum double, with some estimates in factors of 10 greater than actually reported cases. On that scale, even without a vaccine, it's half as deadly as the flu at it's worst, and that's with vaccines for the flu.

So, it might not be as deadly in relative terms (say it only kills 0.29% of infected people). However, it is more deadly in absolute terms as it spreads faster and undetected, ultimately collapsing the health system of a city/country, leading to greater/quicker/geographically concentrated deaths than the flu. The impact it has on a region - psychologically, socially and economically - like northern Italy - is devastating. Two nurses committed suicide yesterday in Italy due to exhaustion/depression (and one testing positive). Truly heartbreaking.

 

[latin jazz]

for some reason the virus is ripping through the Orthodox Jewish community. The first outbreak in the NY area was in a synagogue in Westchester County (close to where Donovan lives)

Not random. They are ignoring any advice:

Hasidic community ignores social distancing orders amid coronavirus
https://nypost.com/2020/03/18/hasidic-community-ignores-social-distancing-orders-amid-coronavirus/?utm_source=url_sitebuttons&utm_medium=site buttons&utm_campaign=site buttons

 

[latin jazz]

@Scat calling two nurses "Quitters" after they committed suicide is truly disgusting. It seems you realized how stupid your comment was and delete it.

 

[Scat]

@Scat calling two nurses "Quitters" after they committed suicide is truly disgusting. It seems you realized how stupid your comment was and delete it.

It was an attempt to find a little levity during such a depressing time. Apparently realizing my poor attempt and deleting the post immediately was not enough for you. Thank you for your vigelence in policing posts of poor taste on Jazzfanz. You must be a riot at social distancing parties. Oh wait....

 

[latin jazz]

It was an attempt to find a little levity during such a depressing time. Apparently realizing my poor attempt and deleting the post immediately was not enough for you. Thank you for your vigelence in policing posts of poor taste on Jazzfanz. You must be a riot at social distancing parties. Oh wait....

I don't mind the political nonsense or terrible posts. And I try to bring some sense of humour into tense topics too. But that was really poor taste/offensive and I had to say something about it. At least you aknowledge it wasn't appropriate and I appreciate that (not the sarcasm though).

 

[Red]

Hospitals on the front lines of the pandemic are engaged in a heated private debate over a calculation few have encountered in their lifetimes - how to weigh the “save at all costs” approach to resuscitating a dying patient against the real danger of exposing doctors and nurses to the contagion of coronavirus.

The conversations are driven by the realization that the risk to staff amid dwindling stores of protective equipment - such as masks, gowns and gloves - may be too great to justify the conventional response when a patient "codes," and their heart or breathing stops....

....Some of the most anxiety-provoking minutes in a health-care worker's day involve participating in procedures that send virus-laced droplets from a patient's airways all over the room.

https://www.adn.com/nation-world/20...-resuscitate-orders-for-coronavirus-patients/

 

[Zombie]

No it's the other way around. It's that hey this Lakers team is behind by 20 with 20 seconds left, but hey 10 seconds ago they were behind by 24 and 10 seconds before they they were behind 26, so they are doubling their scoring every 5 seconds, they will win this thing by 20 in the next 20 seconds, ignoring the obvious that there is a ticking clock, that there are efforts to stop them.

In China they have basically reversed the spread curve. And that's with the efforts of only one government and one scientific community working on it. The way everyone is talking everyone will be dead by next Wednesday so we won't have anyone alive to finish the vaccine or improved treatment, and also ignoring the true rates of both infection and mortality.

I have no doubt this will get worse before it gets better, but I do not believe it will surpass the flu in mortality before it is brought under control.

I'm not saying we don't need to take the precautions we are now. I'm not saying I don't think it's serious. I'm saying all these armchair calculations showing it escalating to world-destroying levels are exaggerated at best and feed a needlessly panicky populace.

And that will only make things worse.

Looks like your arguing a point no one is making. I haven't seen any claims we are going to be dead in a week or that we won't get a vaccine eventually. If that's the bar you think the discourse is at then sure that's an overreaction. Hasn't been what I've seen though.

 

[LogGrad98]

Looks like your arguing a point no one is making. I haven't seen any claims we are going to be dead in a week or that we won't get a vaccine eventually. If that's the bar you think the discourse is at then sure that's an overreaction. Hasn't been what I've seen though.

It's called hyperbole.


But no one is talking the actual stats including in the country it originated. Nothing indicates this even is currently as bad as the flu, let alone will lead to hundreds of thousands dead in the long run. Talk to facts, not panic and assumptions.

 

[Zombie]

It's called hyperbole.


But no one is talking the actual stats including in the country it originated. Nothing indicates this even is currently as bad as the flu, let alone will lead to hundreds of thousands dead in the long run. Talk to facts, not panic and assumptions.

You mean China? I've seen plenty of people talk about what happened in China. First, it's difficult to draw too many conclusions from what their government reports considering their track record. But if we take their figures as gospel then we're left with the steps they took to solve the problem. Steps we in the US as well as most of the western world aren't anywhere near capable or willing to take.

Two weeks ago New York had a few hundred total cases of Covid and life was more or less normal, today the state has over 30,000 and their hospitals look like war zones. They'll probably pass the total number of reported cases in China within the next two weeks.

That said, I have believe the steps we're taking will keep us from seeing death figures in the hundreds of thousands, as long as we continue what we're doing until we've got things under control and can effectively stop the spread any further.

But FOH with this idea that this isn't any worse than the flu. It absolutely is.

 

[LogGrad98]

You mean China? I've seen plenty of people talk about what happened in China. First, it's difficult to draw too many conclusions from what their government reports considering their track record. But if we take their figures as gospel then we're left with the steps they took to solve the problem. Steps we in the US as well as most of the western world aren't anywhere near capable or willing to take.

Two weeks ago New York had a few hundred total cases of Covid and life was more or less normal, today the state has over 30,000 and their hospitals look like war zones. They'll probably pass the total number of reported cases in China within the next two weeks.

That said, I have believe the steps we're taking will keep us from seeing death figures in the hundreds of thousands, as long as we continue what we're doing until we've got things under control and can effectively stop the spread any further.

But FOH with this idea that this isn't any worse than the flu. It absolutely is.

Well you can have your opinion. I'll stick with the facts.

 

[Rubashov]

Well you can have your opinion. I'll stick with the facts.

it'll be worse than the flu dude.

 

[Stars Fan]

Hospitals on the front lines of the pandemic are engaged in a heated private debate over a calculation few have encountered in their lifetimes - how to weigh the “save at all costs” approach to resuscitating a dying patient against the real danger of exposing doctors and nurses to the contagion of coronavirus.

The conversations are driven by the realization that the risk to staff amid dwindling stores of protective equipment - such as masks, gowns and gloves - may be too great to justify the conventional response when a patient "codes," and their heart or breathing stops....

....Some of the most anxiety-provoking minutes in a health-care worker's day involve participating in procedures that send virus-laced droplets from a patient's airways all over the room.

https://www.adn.com/nation-world/20...-resuscitate-orders-for-coronavirus-patients/

Doctors here in Italy, especially in hard areas like Bergamo, have described the psychological horror they feel at having to make life or death decisions on who should get the limited ventilator resources. Does it go to the worst case? To the most likely to recover? How to decide? Who decides?

There was a story on the Italian news of a 65 year old patient who signed a do not resuscitate order and gave his ventilator to a 45 year old. It was played in the news as a heroic act. I saw it as a tragedy. A priest with coronavirus gave his ventilator away to a younger patient...and died of pulmonary pneumonia.

The shortage of protective gear for medical personnel, and the shortage of ventilators, is going to be a big problem. The flattening of the curve, is to help slow the rush of cases to try to keep from overwhelming the hospital capacity to treat and care for patients.

It's becoming a reality for New York now. Listen to Gov Cuomo in this clip.



The fictitious "death panels" used as fear mongering against the ACA are going to pale in comparison to the potential reality of ad hoc life or death decisions by overwhelmed, overworked, under-resourced doctors and nurses about who gets the ventilator. Everything we can do to flatten the curve, slow the spread, increase production of equipment, and support the front line medical care system deserves our best collective effort.

 

[silesian]

What is the evidence that COVID-19 is more lethal? Flu kills more people in wider age groups. Even the most conservatives estimates from experts on actual infection rates puts flu, with vaccines, at about twice as deadly. The evidence just isn't there to support that assertion.

from the guardian:

According to Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, COVID-19's mortality rate is probably about 1%, which is still about 10 times the flu's.

 

[Keefe]

Here’s a simpler way to look at what’s happening in the U.S. The graph appears a few days old but nothing’s changed since.



The blue line is the number of cases and the red line is the number of deaths. Trumpf!

 

[silesian]

How can I think anything but? Looking at what is happening in New York it's only worse if you assume that every single case is exactly the number that is being diagnosed. Not a single expert believes that. Most believe that the actual rate of infection is minimum double, with some estimates in factors of 10 greater than actually reported cases. On that scale, even without a vaccine, it's half as deadly as the flu at it's worst, and that's with vaccines for the flu.

The flu number of infections (denominator) are also massively underreported. I’ve had the flu many times and never reported it, and I’m sure many people don’t bother to see a doc. It is much less likely that this happens with covid 19, where people are being hyper vigilant.

 

[silesian]

No it's the other way around. It's that hey this Lakers team is behind by 20 with 20 seconds left, but hey 10 seconds ago they were behind by 24 and 10 seconds before they they were behind 26, so they are doubling their scoring every 5 seconds, they will win this thing by 20 in the next 20 seconds, ignoring the obvious that there is a ticking clock, that there are efforts to stop them.

In China they have basically reversed the spread curve. And that's with the efforts of only one government and one scientific community working on it. The way everyone is talking everyone will be dead by next Wednesday so we won't have anyone alive to finish the vaccine or improved treatment, and also ignoring the true rates of both infection and mortality.

I have no doubt this will get worse before it gets better, but I do not believe it will surpass the flu in mortality before it is brought under control.

I'm not saying we don't need to take the precautions we are now. I'm not saying I don't think it's serious. I'm saying all these armchair calculations showing it escalating to world-destroying levels are exaggerated at best and feed a needlessly panicky populace.

And that will only make things worse.

I’ve seen no one claim it is world destroying levels. People are saying that many people will die unnecessarily due to overwhelming the hospitals.

so ironically, you are the one guilty of hyperbole.

 

[Red]

Listen to Gov Cuomo in this clip.

I think his daily briefings have been held late mornings Eastern time, and the wife and I have listened to him quite a bit. I did see the entirety of that briefing. We both find Cuomo to be very impressive. To myself, anyway, he conveys strong leadership, and an understanding of how to respond that I just don't get from Trump.

I know Trump has not simply sat on his hands altogether, but I have taken to not listening when his own briefings start, around 5 pm Eastern each day. And to hear him say that the US has tested more people in the last 8 days than others have in the last 8 weeks, I'm not sure off the top who he is talking about for those 8 weeks, but I think it is not true that we are doing the knock it out of the park level of testing that he seems to be conveying. I found his statement typical Trump fairy tail presentations.

The contrast of the leadership he conveys, and that which Cuomo conveys, is stark, IMO, and don't favor Trump, IMO. Yet, I read in the New York Post that Trump's daily TV ratings compare to the ratings for Monday night football. And he must know it. Now, he leads off every briefing, and sometimes Dr. Fauci, standing behind him, looks crushed. Fauci has asked the press to stop trying to drive a wedge between he and Trump, but reports have emerged that he is not crazy about some of the contrary positions Fauci has taken.

Sad if true: reports that Democratic governors understand, or believe, they must tread very carefully when addressing their concerns over the federal response, for fear that Trump will short change them if they criticise that response too strongly.

 

[silesian]

It's called hyperbole.


But no one is talking the actual stats including in the country it originated. Nothing indicates this even is currently as bad as the flu, let alone will lead to hundreds of thousands dead in the long run. Talk to facts, not panic and assumptions.

You are spouting your opinion and calling it facts.

Why don’t you tell us with your facts how many people would die from covid 19 is we treat it the same as we treat the common flu season. No shutdowns, no social distancing, no extra purchases of medical supplies. Just apples to apples, flu versus covid 19, everything else equal. No opinions, just facts.

 

[Red]

The flu is endemic. I don't think the seasonal flu overwhelms the ability of our hospitals to respond to it. Pandemics can overwhelm. Shortage of protective measures for our health care workers, and shortages of ventilators and beds for the seriously ill, are a recipe for a disastrous event, regardless of which bug would actually kill more, if both bugs were endemic. I imagine waves for both, but for a pandemic like Covid-19, the wave can be closer to tsunami-level, I imagine.

 

[Keefe]

It’s honestly as if some people have tuned out the experts and can’t analyze basic math.