Conley For Horford Discussion

[jom2003]

I'm glad to see there is more discussion on this topic.

For next season, I personally believe that Horford helps our team more than Conley. He makes $7.5 less than Conley as well as provides us with sorely needed depth at C and PF. He is a proven winner who can do everything at the C position (defend, shoot, pass, etc.).

Most importantly, we get assets in this deal. I would require either Thybulle or Milton PLUS draft picks.

Conley
for
Horford, Thybulle/Milton, #21, #58, and NY's 2021 2nd round pick

I'd do it for Milton and picks. If we have to get on Horford's horrendous deal so be it. That means we will be less inclined to give Rudy the Supermax, which is a good thing. Supermax is a terrible idea that has killed many teams title hope

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

His production was slipping badly in last few years. He plain sucks now and as soon as Philly gave him that contract he became most overpaid player in NBA by mile. Stop the Horford madness please.

Okay sir please prove his production is slipping badly... because as soon as you look at the numbers you'll realize he has slipped a small amount.

Also we are acting like we are giving a guy in his prime up for an old slowing down Horford... when in reality we are giving up a guy who has appeared to slip more than Horford. If Horford sucks then Conley sucks too.

Worst contract in the league status belongs to John Wall, Kevin Love is right there with him. He's definitely overpaid... which is why you get the other stuff.

 

[Avery]

I'd do it for Milton and picks. If we have to get on Horford's horrendous deal so be it. That means we will be less inclined to give Rudy the Supermax, which is a good thing. Supermax is a terrible idea that has killed many teams title hope

Nobody is giving Rudy the supermax. I think the only person you could make a true case for the SM would be Giannis.

 

[cowhide]

NO, this is not a good idea. People like to bash Conley but he played well in the bubble excluding the last game.

 

[NAOS]

NO, this is not a good idea. People like to bash Conley but he played well in the bubble excluding the last game.

If by “well” you mean he continued to drag the defense down the path of non-title contention, then sure.

 

[LoPo]

If by “well” you mean he continued to drag the defense down the path of non-title contention, then sure.

He means well but highlighting his game 3 performance while conveniently not mentioning his horrid game 5 and game 7 performances.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I'd do it for Milton and picks. If we have to get on Horford's horrendous deal so be it. That means we will be less inclined to give Rudy the Supermax, which is a good thing. Supermax is a terrible idea that has killed many teams title hope

I just think status quo next year with a few small improvements does not get you in the title conversation. Letting Mike's deal expire and rolling with status quo with minor tweaks again then leaves us potentially much worse. We won't have a pick next year.. still won't have cap space and Joe will done. Does DM look around at that point and want to stick it out?

Al doesn't likely change that but he could provide a key role and the other stuff you get might be the swing pieces.

 

[latin jazz]

You are getting at least one of Thybulle or Milton who are good young perimeter talents who can provide production now and grow into better players. You are getting at least one first round pick and in the scenario I outlined a good second or two as well.

Al's best use is as a backup 5... I can make the argument that Mike's best use is as a backup pg. I think you will need additional size to compete with the Lakers and it is useful against the other contenders in the West.

I realize draft picks aren't likely to help us now, but that is how Utah will get its blue chip talent. The pick can also be used in a trade for the right opportunity.

You are now getting into the unrealistic scenario. I like Thybulle but I don't see Philly attaching so many assets to get rid of his contract. If that's the price, they will probably wait one year to unload it.

You are saying that Conley has declined so much more than Horford. I don't see that. Conley had a pretty productive bubble/playoffs. He was fine and at least looked way better than at the beginning of the season (couldn't be worse anyway). Horford? The last few months he looked really slow to the point that he became useless against Boston. He is skilled, smart and can still play some, but as a backup 5 (and that position is way easier/cheaper to fill than PG).

And you are forgetting the tax implications. Conley expires right before Rudy & Don extesions begin. If he stays, it's probably for something around the MLE. Adding a massive long term salary like Horford might put us into repeater tax territory. That's not gonna happen unless you are a clear contender (or a champion already): I don't see Hordord + Player X + pick getting us there.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

You are now getting into the unrealistic scenario. I like Thybulle but I don't see Philly attaching so many assets to get rid of his contract. If that's the price, they will probably wait one year to unload it.

You are saying that Conley has declined so much more than Horford. I don't see that. Conley had a pretty productive bubble/playoffs. He was fine and at least looked way better than at the beginning of the season (couldn't be worse anyway). Horford? The last few months he looked really slow to the point that he became useless against Boston. He is skilled, smart and can still play some, but as a backup 5 (and that position is way easier/cheaper to fill than PG).

And you are forgetting the tax implications. Conley expires right before Rudy & Don extesions begin. If he stays, it's probably for something around the MLE. Adding a massive long term salary like Horford might put us into repeater tax territory. That's not gonna happen unless you are a clear contender (or a champion already): I don't see Hordord + Player X + pick getting us there.

Wait so they won't give assets to get off the deal and will just wait a year and get off it for nothing? Yet if we take on the salary we are stuck with it forever and it puts us in the repeater tax?

It won't put us in the tax next year, but it might in 2022. After that Joe expires and you have one year left on Bogey... Horford's deal is partially guaranteed in the last year, so you could save another 12M. You have to be in the tax 3 out of 4 years... we will easily be able to manage that.

Philly might retain assets but they are already well over the tax with just their current team and have way more locked in salaries than us. They may say they will pay guys but that group also cut salary hard during the initial stages of the pandemic to the point that Embiid stepped in and said he'd foot the bill for the staffers. They are in desperate need of salary relief and a change of personnel because they have ill-fitting pieces. A young player and a pick to get off of a bad deal and simultaneously fix major issues with the roster is fairly enticing imo.

With regard to the Boston series... Philly had given up... Brown knew he was out. Embiid played with no intensity or purpose... and they were missing Ben Simmons. Its also a ****** matchup as no team has the wing depth Boston does. I'm glad Conley played well in the bubble but don't expect him to shoot 53% from three next year. When he isn't scorching the nets he isn't providing a ton of other things that help you win. You can't look at a snapshot of 5-10 games where one guy shoots well and point to that as being who that player is.

As a comparison point... Al and Mike had the same TS% last year... both guys had similar assist numbers per minute as well. Mike was supposedly a perfect fit pre-season and we all saw the fit issues with Al. You have to take the highs with the lows.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Philly has the same **** we had going on when we had Ricky, Favs, and Rudy on the floor at the same time. Its one too many non-shooter, non-creators. They should move one of Joel or Ben but they won't.

Al had some very good games when Joel was out. Joel is different than Rudy. Joel likes to work in the post... kinda ****s up all the driving lanes and spacing when a guy lives in the post. Not saying the fit with Rudy is ideal, but its different enough and we have enough shooters and shot creators to make it workable.

Philly may not give up the incentives to make a trade work but that front office will be under pressure to improve and they have the worst cap sheet in the league. They are a team ripe to make a stupid trade. Even if you got Shake and one first you could likely sneak some pick swaps in there that would operate as "lotto tickets" for us.

Status quo is the path to mediocrity and will sow the seeds of either wasting DM's prime or him asking out.

 

[MVP]

Okay sir please prove his production is slipping badly... because as soon as you look at the numbers you'll realize he has slipped a small amount.

Also we are acting like we are giving a guy in his prime up for an old slowing down Horford... when in reality we are giving up a guy who has appeared to slip more than Horford. If Horford sucks then Conley sucks too.

Worst contract in the league status belongs to John Wall, Kevin Love is right there with him. He's definitely overpaid... which is why you get the other stuff.

Give me Wall or Love over Horford any day, who are you kidding.? Horford is allergic to paint and rebounding now. For his size his rebounding numbers are pathetic.

Al Horford Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Draft Status and more | Basketball-Reference.com

Checkout the latest stats of Al Horford. Get info about his position, age, height, weight, draft status, shoots, school and more on Basketball-Reference.com

www.basketball-reference.com

Since he moved to Boston his numbers took a significant dive. If we talk Horford from 2012-2014 I would love that guy, now you have somebody who was a good player and rode his name to stupidly good paycheck. WORST CONTRACT given last offseason by far!!!!

 

[latin jazz]

Wait so they won't give assets to get off the deal and will just wait a year and get off it for nothing? Yet if we take on the salary we are stuck with it forever and it puts us in the repeater tax?

It won't put us in the tax next year, but it might in 2022. After that Joe expires and you have one year left on Bogey... Horford's deal is partially guaranteed in the last year, so you could save another 12M. You have to be in the tax 3 out of 4 years... we will easily be able to manage that.

Philly might retain assets but they are already well over the tax with just their current team and have way more locked in salaries than us. They may say they will pay guys but that group also cut salary hard during the initial stages of the pandemic to the point that Embiid stepped in and said he'd foot the bill for the staffers. They are in desperate need of salary relief and a change of personnel because they have ill-fitting pieces. A young player and a pick to get off of a bad deal and simultaneously fix major issues with the roster is fairly enticing imo.

With regard to the Boston series... Philly had given up... Brown knew he was out. Embiid played with no intensity or purpose... and they were missing Ben Simmons. Its also a ****** matchup as no team has the wing depth Boston does. I'm glad Conley played well in the bubble but don't expect him to shoot 53% from three next year. When he isn't scorching the nets he isn't providing a ton of other things that help you win. You can't look at a snapshot of 5-10 games where one guy shoots well and point to that as being who that player is.

As a comparison point... Al and Mike had the same TS% last year... both guys had similar assist numbers per minute as well. Mike was supposedly a perfect fit pre-season and we all saw the fit issues with Al. You have to take the highs with the lows.

I think you were a bit optimistic about how many assets Philly is willing to give up to get rid of his contract. I can see them using mediocre pick (s) and maybe one decent player (not this year, but probably next). Overpaid players are really hard to move with 3 years left on their contracts (Kevin Love says hi) because the price of doing so is pretty high. It's way more likely to move a contract with 2/1 years left. Basically, Philly shoot themselves on the foot. We disagree on how desperate they are and how many assets they are willing to give up. Although crazier things have happened (I didn't think CP3 could be moved but he had an esplendid year).

It wasn't only the matchup. He looked slow and out of place, even when guarding the paint. Of course I don't expect Mike to shoot 50% from 3. But I think his horrendous start of the season hides the fact that he played well since February (so it not 5-10 games as you say): since the All-Star break he averaged 16PPG on 44% shooting, 40% from 3 and TS%.593, which is very decent. That's not counting the playoffs, where his numbers jumped to 20PPG on much better shooting. He was good making plays for others (using APG under Quin's system is wrong). I understand his play at the beginning was terrible, but I'm also wondering if the narrative (and expectations) would be different If we hadn't given up so many assets for him or if he wasn't so vastly overpaid.

On the other hand, you are making a big mistake in using TS%. For what is worth, it says more about Al mediocre season than Conley. TS% tend to work in favor of bigs, players who get to the line and elite shooters. Of the top 20, only 5 are wings (as I said elite shooters like Robinson, Harden, JJ, Seth Curry) and one is a point guard PG (Dame). Look at the top of the list, it's all centers and some power forwards.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Give me Wall or Love over Horford any day, who are you kidding.? Horford is allergic to paint and rebounding now. For his size his rebounding numbers are pathetic.

Al Horford Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Draft Status and more | Basketball-Reference.com

Checkout the latest stats of Al Horford. Get info about his position, age, height, weight, draft status, shoots, school and more on Basketball-Reference.com

www.basketball-reference.com

Since he moved to Boston his numbers took a significant dive. If we talk Horford from 2012-2014 I would love that guy, now you have somebody who was a good player and rode his name to stupidly good paycheck. WORST CONTRACT given last offseason by far!!!!

If you don't think Boston Al Horford was good then we shouldn't even talk... put me on ignore... he anchored one of the best defenses in the league there. I'm sorry he got one less rebound a game... he must have really fallen off a cliff.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I think you were a bit optimistic about how many assets Philly is willing to give up to get rid of his contract. I can see them using mediocre pick (s) and maybe one decent player (not this year, but probably next). Overpaid players are really hard to move with 3 years left on their contracts (Kevin Love says hi) because the price of doing so is pretty high. It's way more likely to move a contract with 2/1 years left. Basically, Philly shoot themselves on the foot. We disagree on how desperate they are and how many assets they are willing to give up. Although crazier things have happened (I didn't think CP3 could be moved but he had an esplendid year).

It wasn't only the matchup. He looked slow and out of place, even when guarding the paint. Of course I don't expect Mike to shoot 50% from 3. But I think his horrendous start of the season hides the fact that he played well since February (so it not 5-10 games as you say): since the All-Star break he averaged 16PPG on 44% shooting, 40% from 3 and TS%.593, which is very decent. That's not counting the playoffs, where his numbers jumped to 20PPG on much better shooting. He was good making plays for others (using APG under Quin's system is wrong). I understand his play at the beginning was terrible, but I'm also wondering if the narrative (and expectations) would be different If we hadn't given up so many assets for him or if he wasn't so vastly overpaid.

On the other hand, you are making a big mistake in using TS%. For what is worth, it says more about Al mediocre season than Conley. TS% tend to work in favor of bigs, players who get to the line and elite shooters. Of the top 20, only 5 are wings (as I said elite shooters like Robinson, Harden, JJ, Seth Curry) and one is a point guard PG (Dame). Look at the top of the list, it's all centers and some power forwards.

You can parse Mike's season however you like... Have to consider the good and the bad. He's had streaks in other seasons.. we've had other PGs that had longer streaks post AS break and believing that is who they are is dangerous.

I understand on the TS% point... just saying they had equal effectiveness shooting the ball. Al was asked to shoot threes at a much higher volume and they don't have guys that run great screen and roll... something he was awesome at in Boston. Mike also has the lowest TS% of our guards... so some of those shots can be allocated to others and used much better.

Straight up I think Mike is better but not by a ton... he's easier to fit in with most teams for sure. Its just tough to say one guy is washed and one guy is not when both have had drops in production. One guy is in a great situation to succeed... the other guy has the deck completely stacked against him. Al may have looked creaky in the bubble... there were plenty of times this year when Mike looked creaky.

The Philly situation is pretty dire... If they fill out their roster with minimums they will be 12M over the tax... meaning a $22M plus tax bill. That is using the most optimistic cap projection. If the cap is flat they will be $22M over the cap meaning a $50M+ tax bill. The GMs there stand pat and they don't improve that will be tough to explain to the ownership group. They may not do a deal... that's fine, but don't downplay the fact that they would have many reasons to do one.

 

[NAOS]

Status quo is the path to mediocrity and will sow the seeds of either wasting DM's prime or him asking out.

there’s no doubt about this.

Our FO needs to find a way out.

 

[NAOS]

I think you were a bit optimistic about how many assets Philly is willing to give up to get rid of his contract. I can see them using mediocre pick (s) and maybe one decent player (not this year, but probably next). Overpaid players are really hard to move with 3 years left on their contracts (Kevin Love says hi) because the price of doing so is pretty high. It's way more likely to move a contract with 2/1 years left. Basically, Philly shoot themselves on the foot. We disagree on how desperate they are and how many assets they are willing to give up. Although crazier things have happened (I didn't think CP3 could be moved but he had an esplendid year).

It wasn't only the matchup. He looked slow and out of place, even when guarding the paint. Of course I don't expect Mike to shoot 50% from 3. But I think his horrendous start of the season hides the fact that he played well since February (so it not 5-10 games as you say): since the All-Star break he averaged 16PPG on 44% shooting, 40% from 3 and TS%.593, which is very decent. That's not counting the playoffs, where his numbers jumped to 20PPG on much better shooting. He was good making plays for others (using APG under Quin's system is wrong). I understand his play at the beginning was terrible, but I'm also wondering if the narrative (and expectations) would be different If we hadn't given up so many assets for him or if he wasn't so vastly overpaid.

On the other hand, you are making a big mistake in using TS%. For what is worth, it says more about Al mediocre season than Conley. TS% tend to work in favor of bigs, players who get to the line and elite shooters. Of the top 20, only 5 are wings (as I said elite shooters like Robinson, Harden, JJ, Seth Curry) and one is a point guard PG (Dame). Look at the top of the list, it's all centers and some power forwards.

Zero mention of Mike’s defense, or how playing him puts the rest of our average defenders in worse matchups.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Zero mention of Mike’s defense, or how playing him puts the rest of our average defenders in worse matchups.

Or that joe seems to disappear in lineups with Mike or that we were better with Joe in the starting lineup than we were with Mike. Or that when you look at the contenders next year you really wonder how Mike would survive defensively.

Also for those in the camp of keeping Mike... when we get to the offseason next year what’s the plan? Pay to keep him and you have a money crunch once you give the MLE to some big this year and retain JC. Letting him walk for nothing will get you what?

 

[latin jazz]

One guy is in a great situation to succeed... the other guy has the deck completely stacked against him. Al may have looked creaky in the bubble... there were plenty of times this year when Mike looked creaky.

The Philly situation is pretty dire... If they fill out their roster with minimums they will be 12M over the tax... meaning a $22M plus tax bill. That is using the most optimistic cap projection. If the cap is flat they will be $22M over the cap meaning a $50M+ tax bill. The GMs there stand pat and they don't improve that will be tough to explain to the ownership group. They may not do a deal... that's fine, but don't downplay the fact that they would have many reasons to do one.

This is fair. Although it seems Quin system is a nightmare for PGs (except dumb George Hill, who fit like a glove)

With Doc at the helm, they probably keep the Vets and try to move expendable guys like Mike Scott first. That would only take a 2nd rounder (or two).

Perhaps Philly is willing to pay a big tax bill this year (bringing Doc point into that direction). Time will tell how desperate they are.

 

[latin jazz]

Zero mention of Mike’s defense, or how playing him puts the rest of our average defenders in worse matchups.

It's been mentioned ad nauseam ha. I even said something about it yesterday (or today?) and you even liked the comment: that having two below average starting in Bogie/Conley (+DM) sucks and ruins our defense.

HH didn't bring defense into the argument and I was taking the time to address his points one by one. So blame HH for not doing it, not me

 

[NAOS]

It's been mentioned ad nauseam ha. I even said something about it yesterday (or today?) and you even liked the comment: that having two below average starting in Bogie/Conley (+DM) sucks and ruins our defense.

HH didn't bring defense into the argument and I was taking the time to address his points one by one. So blame HH for not doing it, not me

I have to parachute into these conversations at random these days. Whenever I do, I see considerably more typing about Mike’s offense than his defense, which I think is pretty odd—and also quite a giveaway considering his offense (taken in whole) is nothing to crow about.

But it’s his defense that lowers our ceiling for as long as he’s here. And if we play things out with him on the roster, we’ll have very little room to maneuver. We’re in a corner. And the smoking gun for all the woe is his defense.

I feel almost a moral duty to keep this perspective frothing right at the top of JFC. Sorry I quoted you this time, haha.