Conley For Horford Discussion


LoPo

Well-Known Member
This is just for discussion. I'm not pushing this trade at this point. It might be unpopular, but here goes. Read before bashing.

Horford is not a good fit with Philly just like Conley is not a good fit here. Philly has an aggressive front office and they will make moves this summer if they have a bad postseason. They will blame/trade Horford because they can't trade divas Simmons and Embiid while THarris makes too much. There are already rumors they will trade Horford this summer.

Reasons why Horford might be better for us than Conley:

2020-21 salary: Conley makes $7 million more. Saving that money is big see below.

Draft assets: we only do it if Philly adds draft assets. They have 2 2020 1sts (theirs & OKC), and good 2020 2nd rounders too (Atl & NY). Or maybe we can get Zhaire Smith or Korkmaz too.

Team need: we need more post help than we need another undersized guard with average defense.

Clarkson stay: we trade Conley with the idea that Clarkson will get more touches. The $7 million saved can also go to re-signing him.

Horford from 3: he shoots 34% taking over 4 3's a game. He is a fantastic alternative to Gobert which gives us a matchup pawn.

Horford influence: he is a fantastic lockerroom presence. He is a leader and proven winner.

Horford defense: he is a very good defender and rebounder.

Gobert insurance: we're a Gobert injury away from mighty struggles. We also know Gobert is easily disgruntled and might demand a silly super max. Horford still has a few years left of quality basketball with how he plays, and we might need him if Gobert ever gets hurt or even leaves.

Downside: truly if it's Conley vs Horford, the only downside is the $27 million Horford is owed in 2021-22. However, I think the $7 million saved next year, the quality he provides on the court, and the picks he gets us in the deal are worth the discussion.



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Ron Mexico

Well-Known Member
Contributor
We are over the salary cap regardless of saving 7 million or not, it has no effect on who we can sign. Especially if we re-sign Clarkson.

He is already 34 years old and has 3 more years after this on his contract. Its not just next year. That contract would cripple this team. I think it maybe makes us slightly better for this year and much worse after that. Getting a crap 1st round pick for that is awful. Its a very high chance at being a bust player and then we have 3 more years of a huge contract.

This is a terrible trade idea. We are way better off just letting him walk after next year if he doesnt work out and we cant trade him.

This is one of the worst contracts out there along with Wall, Wiggins, CP3, Westbrook, Love, and Griffins. Even Klay and Lillard's contracts are a little scary. Although CP3 might be able to keep it up for a few more years, kind of like Stockton. I wouldnt bet on it though. Maybe Wiggins can turn it around as well, he is still young.
 
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LoPo

Well-Known Member
We are over the salary cap regardless of saving 7 million or not, it has no effect on who we can sign. Especially if we re-sign Clarkson.

He is already 34 years old and has 3 more years after this on his contract. Its not just next year. That contract would cripple this team. I think it maybe makes us slightly better for this year and much worse after that. Getting a crap 1st round pick for that is awful. Its a very high chance at being a bust player and then we have 3 more years of a huge contract.

This is a terrible trade idea. We are way better off just letting him walk after next year if he doesnt work out and we cant trade him.

This is one of the worst contracts out there along with Wall, Wiggins, CP3, Westbrook, Love, and Griffins. Even Klay and Lillard's contracts are a little scary. Although CP3 might be able to keep it up for a few more years, kind of like Stockton. I wouldnt bet on it though. Maybe Wiggins can turn it around as well, he is still young.
I respect your opinion. Let me point out:

His contract is:
2020-21 $27.5 ($7 less than Conley)
2021-22 $27
2022-23 Nonguaranteed

I don't like his 2021-22 number but I like him much better for our team next season than Conley especially at $7 million less. So for 2020-21, its a good deal for us.

The other main sticking point is the draft value Philly adds in. If we don't like the assets, then we walk. This isn't just Horford for Conley. The picks must make it worth it. For example - if we can do this trade around the draft, package our pick with theirs and move up, it could be brilliant. Two 20's and the Atlanta 2nd might get us late lottery. We need young talent.

Overall, just a discussion. I'm not sold either. Have to see how this season plays out, how desperate Philly is, etc.

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The Jazz Wonderbra

Well-Known Member
Respect the opinion all you want but get the facts right...


He is owed for this year, then $27.5 next, $27, the following year, and $26 million PARTIALLY guaranteed.

So, 2 additional plus guaranteed 3rd year money (not disclosed). This likely means we cannot resign anyone for several years other than horford because the cap is likely dipping.

Plus Horford is 34 now. That makes him 37 still getting partially guaranteed money.

This has been brought up lots of times. Horford from 4 years ago would have been fantastic, even on that contract. Horford himself was shocked when that money was thrown his way and basically was on record saying how could he not sign a crazy contract like that.

Pass. And it will be a pass when this gets brought up 12 more times.
 

rare144

Well-Known Member
What would you rather do @Ron Mexico trade him for Devin Booker or Devontae Graham? We got to take what we can get, Conley aint returning that much.

George Hill or Rubio would have been better players for us. Remember we thought if we replaced Rubio with a 3 ball shooter it'd space the floor and would benefit spida. Let play him at point and sit Conley at his favorite perimeter spot. I have a feeling Quin wanted to try that with Conley but alas he got a paddling.

Move DM45 to point and let Conley spot up shoot! But also realize he's leaving soon for his fam so maybe were keeping donny fresh legs and getting all the burn we can from Conley.
 

Ron Mexico

Well-Known Member
Contributor
What would you rather do @Ron Mexico trade him for Devin Booker or Devontae Graham? We got to take what we can get, Conley aint returning that much.

George Hill or Rubio would have been better players for us. Remember we thought if we replaced Rubio with a 3 ball shooter it'd space the floor and would benefit spida. Let play him at point and sit Conley at his favorite perimeter spot. I have a feeling Quin wanted to try that with Conley but alas he got a paddling.

Move DM45 to point and let Conley spot up shoot! But also realize he's leaving soon for his fam so maybe were keeping donny fresh legs and getting all the burn we can from Conley.
Nothing is better than that that awful contract.
 

Ron Mexico

Well-Known Member
Contributor
I respect your opinion. Let me point out:

His contract is:
2020-21 $27.5 ($7 less than Conley)
2021-22 $27
2022-23 Nonguaranteed

I don't like his 2021-22 number but I like him much better for our team next season than Conley especially at $7 million less. So for 2020-21, its a good deal for us.

The other main sticking point is the draft value Philly adds in. If we don't like the assets, then we walk. This isn't just Horford for Conley. The picks must make it worth it. For example - if we can do this trade around the draft, package our pick with theirs and move up, it could be brilliant. Two 20's and the Atlanta 2nd might get us late lottery. We need young talent.

Overall, just a discussion. I'm not sold either. Have to see how this season plays out, how desperate Philly is, etc.

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I am not seeing where 22-23 is non guaranteed. The only thing I read is that its 14.5 in his last year, if the 76ers make the finals any year its 19.5, or if they win it all its fully guaranteed.
 

LoPo

Well-Known Member
@The Jazz Wonderbra and @Ron Mexico

I understand Horford's contract is bad which is why the draft assets are important.. But let's break it down year by year.

2020-21$27.5: That's $7 less than Conley and I believe he improves our team. The $7 million (which I understand still has us over the cap) opens up money to be able to re-sign Clarkson, sign a MLE player, and stay under the luxury limit. So 20-21, this trade is a win.

2021-22 $27: Yes, that's a lot of money for an aging big. However, he's playing 31mpg this year playing very well on a roster that doesn't make sense. The main point on this season - do we even have Rudy? Does he re-sign? Does he demand super max? Does he want out? Does he continue to stay 100% healthy? Horford provides cover in many ways. If we still had expiring Conley, wouldn't we be compelled to re-sign for fear of not replacing him adequately? We just going to let him walk even though he's still costing us a pick? What if he costs $15-20 to keep and our FO feels like they gotta do it? The Horford vs Conley financial argument is a wash at this point.

2022-23 $26.5: This is the bad year, but it is only partially guaranteed. Worst case scenario, he really declines and we are "stuck" with him. In that case, we waive and stretch him. What does that end up being? Around $3 million a year for a few years? Hell, we would waste that amount on guys like Green and Davis on our own. Hopefully his salary won't be considered that bad since his trade got us draft capital we so much needed.

The key - we must get quality in the other parts of the trade. Picks, pick swaps, Zhaire Smith, Korkmaz, whatever, it must make sense.

So...
2020-21 WIN - Horford is better for us than Conley and we save money
2021-22 Questionable VALUE - much depends on Rudy
2022-23 BAD VALUE but hopefully the draft assets are paying off
 
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Handlogten's Heros

Well-Known Member
2019 Award Winner
Horford's deal really effs with the finances if we are keeping Rudy and DM. In theory I think I'm okay with the basic logic. I'm just not sure we can take that big of a chance in a cap environment this uncertain. I'd want firsts... I might try and sneak Josh Richardson in the deal and throw back Ed Davis too.

I think moving Mike to the bench next year might be the best use of him and just keep his expiring deal. I don't see us doubling down on the finances unless its a home run.
 

David Stern

Well-Known Member
There's a greater chance that 2021 Conley reverts closer to his 2nd half and career averages, we actually acquire some depth, and are a better team next year.
 

LoPo

Well-Known Member
Horford's deal really effs with the finances if we are keeping Rudy and DM. In theory I think I'm okay with the basic logic. I'm just not sure we can take that big of a chance in a cap environment this uncertain. I'd want firsts... I might try and sneak Josh Richardson in the deal and throw back Ed Davis too.

I think moving Mike to the bench next year might be the best use of him and just keep his expiring deal. I don't see us doubling down on the finances unless its a home run.
Good points. If we could get Richardson and Horford for Conley and Davis, it's pretty much a no brainer unless Richardson just bolts after next season.

The finances would be tight with max Gobert, max Donovan, Horford, Bojan, Ingles, Clarkson and Royce, but I think we would only go over the luxury for one season (21-22). That would be $35, $25, $27, $18.7, $13.3, $15, and $8.8 = $142.8 in 2021-22. That is if we give Rudy more than max but less than super max and give Clarkson $15. The luxury limit is supposed to be $139 in 20-21. Will be interesting to see what happens to the numbers with COVID.
 

MCarter

Well-Known Member
This is just for discussion. I'm not pushing this trade at this point. It might be unpopular, but here goes. Read before bashing.

Horford is not a good fit with Philly just like Conley is not a good fit here. Philly has an aggressive front office and they will make moves this summer if they have a bad postseason. They will blame/trade Horford because they can't trade divas Simmons and Embiid while THarris makes too much. There are already rumors they will trade Horford this summer.

Reasons why Horford might be better for us than Conley:

2020-21 salary: Conley makes $7 million more. Saving that money is big see below.

Draft assets: we only do it if Philly adds draft assets. They have 2 2020 1sts (theirs & OKC), and good 2020 2nd rounders too (Atl & NY). Or maybe we can get Zhaire Smith or Korkmaz too.

Team need: we need more post help than we need another undersized guard with average defense.

Clarkson stay: we trade Conley with the idea that Clarkson will get more touches. The $7 million saved can also go to re-signing him.

Horford from 3: he shoots 34% taking over 4 3's a game. He is a fantastic alternative to Gobert which gives us a matchup pawn.

Horford influence: he is a fantastic lockerroom presence. He is a leader and proven winner.

Horford defense: he is a very good defender and rebounder.

Gobert insurance: we're a Gobert injury away from mighty struggles. We also know Gobert is easily disgruntled and might demand a silly super max. Horford still has a few years left of quality basketball with how he plays, and we might need him if Gobert ever gets hurt or even leaves.

Downside: truly if it's Conley vs Horford, the only downside is the $27 million Horford is owed in 2021-22. However, I think the $7 million saved next year, the quality he provides on the court, and the picks he gets us in the deal are worth the discussion.



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I understand the idea of Rudy insurance, however, if Rudy resigns around 30 million then we’d be paying 60 million a year for our center and back up center alone. I think we’ve learned this year that Horford isn’t out there to play stretch 4.
 

LoPo

Well-Known Member
I understand the idea of Rudy insurance, however, if Rudy resigns around 30 million then we’d be paying 60 million a year for our center and back up center alone. I think we’ve learned this year that Horford isn’t out there to play stretch 4.
True. 2021-22 is the questionable year. Next year, I think Horford makes us better than Conley and he's cheaper. 2021-22 is the true squeeze if Gobert re-signs big...

Also, many people, myself included, hated spending $40+ on Gobert and Favors. In hindsight, the intangibles Favors brought to the table are sorely missed right now. I think Horford brings those plus much more (mainly 3pt shooting). 21-22 financially sucks in my opinion, but I hope the cheap rookie(s) that comes with Horford would make us forget the price for that one season.
 

Bawse Dawg

Well-Known Member
I like the fit in theory. But look at my posts after the Conley trade to know how much you should trust me with theoretical 'fits'. It also might be sunk cost fallacy of the increasingly obvious Conley mistake. I don't know the right answer.

I hate the assets we've lost in the last 1.5 years. And even more disappointed in the returns.
 

Ron Mexico

Well-Known Member
Contributor
True. 2021-22 is the questionable year. Next year, I think Horford makes us better than Conley and he's cheaper. 2021-22 is the true squeeze if Gobert re-signs big...

Also, many people, myself included, hated spending $40+ on Gobert and Favors. In hindsight, the intangibles Favors brought to the table are sorely missed right now. I think Horford brings those plus much more (mainly 3pt shooting). 21-22 financially sucks in my opinion, but I hope the cheap rookie(s) that comes with Horford would make us forget the price for that one season.
Favors is missed but mostly because we messed up on our backup PF and Center. Both Green and Davis were not good for us. If we had got a decent player at those positions it would be fine. We just need to correct that next year with MLE. Sign someone like JaMychal Green or make a small trade for guys like Larry Nance or Portis. Give Conley a chance to improve his trade value. Conley is well liked around the league and has shown he is a really good player still over the last couple months of games. If we want to trade him make it a good trade next year for a better fitting player in a wing or PF if he is not good again then let him expire.

This trade is way to high of risk with very little reward. Best case we are nominally better, worse case it puts us in Salary cap hell and ruins this team.
 

Catchall

Well-Known Member
2019 Prediction Contest Winner
The Sixers killed their flexibility when they gave Horford that deal. In terms of contract value, it's probably worse than Kevin Love. So yeah, the Sixers want desperately to get off of Horford's contract and would love to take Conley since he's expiring next season.

However, if Horford is overpaid to be a backup to Embiid, the same is true with Gobert. Horford isn't a 4 in the modern NBA. He's not really a fit with the Jazz.

The Jazz would be better off giving up draft compensation to trade Conley's contract and offer $18M to Christian Wood.
 

Xthren

Well-Known Member
I would only do this if Richardson was included.

I also agree that it could be fixed with potentially bringing back Favors and trying to get Portis or someone like that.

I do like the idea of Dm at the point and a big wing at the 2 like Richardson.
 

FAILED STATE

Well-Known Member
Horford's deal really effs with the finances if we are keeping Rudy and DM. In theory I think I'm okay with the basic logic. I'm just not sure we can take that big of a chance in a cap environment this uncertain. I'd want firsts... I might try and sneak Josh Richardson in the deal and throw back Ed Davis too.

I think moving Mike to the bench next year might be the best use of him and just keep his expiring deal. I don't see us doubling down on the finances unless its a home run.
Richardson is realllllly interesting to me. If healthy, he could go a long way in helping to fix our woeful perimeter defense.
 
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