Conley For Horford Discussion

[MCarter]

This is just for discussion. I'm not pushing this trade at this point. It might be unpopular, but here goes. Read before bashing.

Horford is not a good fit with Philly just like Conley is not a good fit here. Philly has an aggressive front office and they will make moves this summer if they have a bad postseason. They will blame/trade Horford because they can't trade divas Simmons and Embiid while THarris makes too much. There are already rumors they will trade Horford this summer.

Reasons why Horford might be better for us than Conley:

2020-21 salary: Conley makes $7 million more. Saving that money is big see below.

Draft assets: we only do it if Philly adds draft assets. They have 2 2020 1sts (theirs & OKC), and good 2020 2nd rounders too (Atl & NY). Or maybe we can get Zhaire Smith or Korkmaz too.

Team need: we need more post help than we need another undersized guard with average defense.

Clarkson stay: we trade Conley with the idea that Clarkson will get more touches. The $7 million saved can also go to re-signing him.

Horford from 3: he shoots 34% taking over 4 3's a game. He is a fantastic alternative to Gobert which gives us a matchup pawn.

Horford influence: he is a fantastic lockerroom presence. He is a leader and proven winner.

Horford defense: he is a very good defender and rebounder.

Gobert insurance: we're a Gobert injury away from mighty struggles. We also know Gobert is easily disgruntled and might demand a silly super max. Horford still has a few years left of quality basketball with how he plays, and we might need him if Gobert ever gets hurt or even leaves.

Downside: truly if it's Conley vs Horford, the only downside is the $27 million Horford is owed in 2021-22. However, I think the $7 million saved next year, the quality he provides on the court, and the picks he gets us in the deal are worth the discussion.



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I understand the idea of Rudy insurance, however, if Rudy resigns around 30 million then we’d be paying 60 million a year for our center and back up center alone. I think we’ve learned this year that Horford isn’t out there to play stretch 4.

 

[LoPo]

I understand the idea of Rudy insurance, however, if Rudy resigns around 30 million then we’d be paying 60 million a year for our center and back up center alone. I think we’ve learned this year that Horford isn’t out there to play stretch 4.

True. 2021-22 is the questionable year. Next year, I think Horford makes us better than Conley and he's cheaper. 2021-22 is the true squeeze if Gobert re-signs big...

Also, many people, myself included, hated spending $40+ on Gobert and Favors. In hindsight, the intangibles Favors brought to the table are sorely missed right now. I think Horford brings those plus much more (mainly 3pt shooting). 21-22 financially sucks in my opinion, but I hope the cheap rookie(s) that comes with Horford would make us forget the price for that one season.

 

[Bawse Dawg]

I like the fit in theory. But look at my posts after the Conley trade to know how much you should trust me with theoretical 'fits'. It also might be sunk cost fallacy of the increasingly obvious Conley mistake. I don't know the right answer.

I hate the assets we've lost in the last 1.5 years. And even more disappointed in the returns.

 

[Hekate]

Yep, Let's trade a questionable fit for a horrendous fit.

 

[Ron Mexico]

True. 2021-22 is the questionable year. Next year, I think Horford makes us better than Conley and he's cheaper. 2021-22 is the true squeeze if Gobert re-signs big...

Also, many people, myself included, hated spending $40+ on Gobert and Favors. In hindsight, the intangibles Favors brought to the table are sorely missed right now. I think Horford brings those plus much more (mainly 3pt shooting). 21-22 financially sucks in my opinion, but I hope the cheap rookie(s) that comes with Horford would make us forget the price for that one season.

Favors is missed but mostly because we messed up on our backup PF and Center. Both Green and Davis were not good for us. If we had got a decent player at those positions it would be fine. We just need to correct that next year with MLE. Sign someone like JaMychal Green or make a small trade for guys like Larry Nance or Portis. Give Conley a chance to improve his trade value. Conley is well liked around the league and has shown he is a really good player still over the last couple months of games. If we want to trade him make it a good trade next year for a better fitting player in a wing or PF if he is not good again then let him expire.

This trade is way to high of risk with very little reward. Best case we are nominally better, worse case it puts us in Salary cap hell and ruins this team.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

The Sixers killed their flexibility when they gave Horford that deal. In terms of contract value, it's probably worse than Kevin Love. So yeah, the Sixers want desperately to get off of Horford's contract and would love to take Conley since he's expiring next season.

However, if Horford is overpaid to be a backup to Embiid, the same is true with Gobert. Horford isn't a 4 in the modern NBA. He's not really a fit with the Jazz.

The Jazz would be better off giving up draft compensation to trade Conley's contract and offer $18M to Christian Wood.

 

[Park Bites]

I would only do this if Richardson was included.

I also agree that it could be fixed with potentially bringing back Favors and trying to get Portis or someone like that.

I do like the idea of Dm at the point and a big wing at the 2 like Richardson.

 

[NAOS]

Horford's deal really effs with the finances if we are keeping Rudy and DM. In theory I think I'm okay with the basic logic. I'm just not sure we can take that big of a chance in a cap environment this uncertain. I'd want firsts... I might try and sneak Josh Richardson in the deal and throw back Ed Davis too.

I think moving Mike to the bench next year might be the best use of him and just keep his expiring deal. I don't see us doubling down on the finances unless its a home run.

Richardson is realllllly interesting to me. If healthy, he could go a long way in helping to fix our woeful perimeter defense.

 

[NAOS]

Is Blake Griffin done?

****, nvm, we all should know that Conley will be back next year.

 

[LoPo]

The idea isn't that Horford is our missing piece. The idea is that Horford helps us more than Conley AND we are able to get draft assets who help us long term.

Look at OKC - their waves of young, athletic players wore us down. Our interior was weak. Our depth is weak. The Conley trade deprived us of two valuable draft picks. This Horford deal would only be considered if it gave us a chance to add draft assets.

I'm not sold that we are going to spend a lot of money in summer 2021 anyway. If Gobert and Donovan are making $60 combined, add in Bojan, Ingles, Royce and hopefully Clarkson, and we are already over the cap.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

The idea isn't that Horford is our missing piece. The idea is that Horford helps us more than Conley AND we are able to get draft assets who help us long term.

Look at OKC - their waves of young, athletic players wore us down. Our interior was weak. Our depth is weak. The Conley trade deprived us of two valuable draft picks. This Horford deal would only be considered if it gave us a chance to add draft assets.

I'm not sold that we are going to spend a lot of money in summer 2021 anyway. If Gobert and Donovan are making $60 combined, add in Bojan, Ingles, Royce and hopefully Clarkson, and we are already over the cap.

The Jazz really only need to add one athletic wing with some length to fill the hole in their frontcourt. They can get that type of player in the draft this year. Then they can use their MLE to bring in another athletic backup big to replace Ed Davis. Jeff Green was a mistake, but he's gone. Ed Davis can be benched or dumped if need be.

There are much better deals out there than the OP.

 

[LoPo]

The Jazz really only need to add one athletic wing with some length to fill the hole in their frontcourt. They can get that type of player in the draft this year. Then they can use their MLE to bring in another athletic backup big to replace Ed Davis. Jeff Green was a mistake, but he's gone. Ed Davis can be benched or dumped if need be.

There are much better deals out there than the OP.

I hope so. Last draft, we could have gotten Clarke which is exactly what we lack.

I don't see another trade where we actually get value for Conley. There just aren't that many big bad contracts. We have to get creative like this where we eat a contract but get enough extras in return.

As of right now, I don't buy that we will have money to spend when Conley expires in 2021 due to incoming Donovan and Rudy deals. So if we keep Conley, the next two offseasons combined, we get to add 1 MLE (20 or 21), 1 1st rounder (20) and minimum contract type guys. That's thinner than my hair.