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Its Time to Tank

I know... OKC has SGA, Giddey, Dort, Jalen Williams, Chet... they also have a few guys that could still pop that have showed improvement. They are a good team and all the winning is being driven by their young guys. They are too good to tank down to like the high 20s in wins.

SA has Poeltl, Vassell, Johnson, Sochan, Jones that can all likely be part of the next SA playoff team. They also have like 60M in cap space next year to add win now talent.

We have Lauri, Kessler, Vando(?)... Beasley is young (in his prime) but it will cost 15M to keep him. I love Sexton but I am not banking on him being a piece you can build around.

Our winning is being driven much more by vets who won't be around in 2-3 years.
Consider this... imagine if we found (e.g. traded) a player who is near Mike Conley level and is 25 or younger, how would you feel about our future then? Are we still far away, or are we maybe monitoring superstars who want out of their teams just to give back some of the picks we got from our 2 hauls.
 
We're going to win tomorrow against Phoenix and then the championship contender thread is going to blow up. Then we go on another losing streak and this thread gets bumped. It's going to be a little bit of an emotional rollercoaster until the trade deadline.
 
Consider this... imagine if we found (e.g. traded) a player who is near Mike Conley level and is 25 or younger, how would you feel about our future then? Are we still far away, or are we maybe monitoring superstars who want out of their teams just to give back some of the picks we got from our 2 hauls.
The argument against tanking imo... is you have those other picks that will convey and bring some all-stars later... trading some those to add a disgruntled star or a guy on Mike's level but younger is great and all but I'm not sure what the point of that is. If Ochai was showing some promise I might feel a bit differently but he's struggling with the stars right now. IF we currently had more long term pieces then by all means lets gun for the play in.

If we end up giving back picks to trade for a star I'm wondering why you traded both Donovan and Rudy... seems like 2 steps back 1 step forward. 25 year old stars don't get traded... so I assume that star is a bit older.

Hanging out in the middle has very little benefit long term if the reason you are hanging out in the middle is guys that won't be at this level in 2-3 years or will be gone. I think this path relies on hitting on a pick in the 12-16 range... which can happen but its a 25%ish proposition in any given year. I'd just rather cash in a vet... increase the odds and value on our own pick becoming an AS. If we are cashing in on the Minny/Cavs picks I'd rather use that capital to move up from the Sixers pick this year and get a late lotto if we can (like OKC and Detroit did this year).
 
We're going to win tomorrow against Phoenix and then the championship contender thread is going to blow up. Then we go on another losing streak and this thread gets bumped. It's going to be a little bit of an emotional rollercoaster until the trade deadline.
Phoenix is real good... if we win that game it will be a data point for me to consider... I still think we are like a 35 win team that outperformed our early schedule by 3 or 4 games.
 
I think we are in this position because we underestimated how good our players were. Lauri is playing like an all-star. Conley clearly isn’t washed he’s playing great. Clarkson is playing great. The Lauri/KO pairing is surprisingly extremely effective.
 
Phoenix is real good... if we win that game it will be a data point for me to consider... I still think we are like a 35 win team that outperformed our early schedule by 3 or 4 games.
Yeah, I think it will be a good litmus test. We won't have any excuses as far as rest or travel schedule or major injuries. Phoenix is playing well right now. We are at home, so if we are a legit team we should keep it competitive.
 
I think we are in this position because we underestimated how good our players were. Lauri is playing like an all-star. Conley clearly isn’t washed he’s playing great. Clarkson is playing great. The Lauri/KO pairing is surprisingly extremely effective.
That and we won two overtime games, one game with Memphis by 1, and we have had good injury luck thus far. Haven't had key guys sit and NO lost BI in the first half, saw Memphis without Ja one night and Bane the other.

We have an amazing opportunity to sell high on a couple guys (maybe... who knows what the trade market is like) add to a huge war chest of assets... and pick up a premium prospect in the draft to add to Lauri, Kessler (who are kind of found money). Its a no brainer for me. I would consider keeping JC and extending his deal by a year if he is open to it... but his trade market might be fairly strong.
 
I know... OKC has SGA, Giddey, Dort, Jalen Williams, Chet... they also have a few guys that could still pop that have showed improvement. They are a good team and all the winning is being driven by their young guys. They are too good to tank down to like the high 20s in wins.

SA has Poeltl, Vassell, Johnson, Sochan, Jones that can all likely be part of the next SA playoff team. They also have like 60M in cap space next year to add win now talent.

We have Lauri, Kessler, Vando(?)... Beasley is young (in his prime) but it will cost 15M to keep him. I love Sexton but I am not banking on him being a piece you can build around.

Our winning is being driven much more by vets who won't be around in 2-3 years.
I think you have to include Sexton and THT for us as well. I actually think THT is starting to compare very favorably to Dort with his strong defense. He is beginning to show quite a bit more play making ability as well though. Then of course Sexton is a 23yr old that is more than capable of putting up 20pts a game on high efficiency.
 
That and we won two overtime games, one game with Memphis by 1, and we have had good injury luck thus far. Haven't had key guys sit and NO lost BI in the first half, saw Memphis without Ja one night and Bane the other.

We have an amazing opportunity to sell high on a couple guys (maybe... who knows what the trade market is like) add to a huge war chest of assets... and pick up a premium prospect in the draft to add to Lauri, Kessler (who are kind of found money). Its a no brainer for me. I would consider keeping JC and extending his deal by a year if he is open to it... but his trade market might be fairly strong.
We have definitely had a lot of breaks go our way. We are a few breaks away from being 6-10 rather than 10-6.
 
I think you have to include Sexton and THT for us as well. I actually think THT is starting to compare very favorably to Dort with his strong defense. He is beginning to show quite a bit more play making ability as well though. Then of course Sexton is a 23yr old that is more than capable of putting up 20pts a game on high efficiency.
I would disagree on THT vs. Dort... strongly. The player types are very different as THT needs the ball in hand to be effective on offense and Dort is similarly effective in an offball role. I think Dort is a much better defender as well. THT is making progress I think but catch and shoot 3 is horrible.

I have my concerns on Sexton. I think he might be a useful bench piece but that the nuances of the game may limit him to less than 20 minutes per game in a winning situation.
 
Let’s trade Conley while his value is at the highest it’s been in awhile and let Sexton start.
I still don't know if he has a trade market. Only team I could see trading for him atm is the Nets in a three team Kyrie deal. The contract is just big enough its hard to work a deal. Which may mean its JC/KO that get moved instead. I think you can justify resting Mike more as an aging vet... so you could manage his minutes without catching the leagues attention... maybe.
 
The argument against tanking imo... is you have those other picks that will convey and bring some all-stars later... trading some those to add a disgruntled star or a guy on Mike's level but younger is great and all but I'm not sure what the point of that is. If Ochai was showing some promise I might feel a bit differently but he's struggling with the stars right now. IF we currently had more long term pieces then by all means lets gun for the play in.

If we end up giving back picks to trade for a star I'm wondering why you traded both Donovan and Rudy... seems like 2 steps back 1 step forward. 25 year old stars don't get traded... so I assume that star is a bit older.

Hanging out in the middle has very little benefit long term if the reason you are hanging out in the middle is guys that won't be at this level in 2-3 years or will be gone. I think this path relies on hitting on a pick in the 12-16 range... which can happen but its a 25%ish proposition in any given year. I'd just rather cash in a vet... increase the odds and value on our own pick becoming an AS. If we are cashing in on the Minny/Cavs picks I'd rather use that capital to move up from the Sixers pick this year and get a late lotto if we can (like OKC and Detroit did this year).
You know why we traded Rudy and DM as well as I do. Had nothing to do with "wanting to tank". It was moving away from something that wasnt working and that was gaining negativity towards us.

Since we got good young pieces in return and a big haul of picks, why does it have to be rebuilding through rock bottom? If we believe Lauri is a potential star and a #2 guy. If Kessler is a good prospect. Beasley could be a nice complementary starter. Sexton seems to at very least be a very serviceable 6th man. Vando, Ochai etc... maybe or maybe not. Do we really need more than a solid guard that has more shelflife than Mike and 1 star, to be up there.

I think we are 2 pieces away from being set for a long haul. Point guard (primary playmaker) and 1 star level forward or tall guard. First we may able to find hidden behind some quality starter, and another one we may just be able to snatch when the next teams start blowing up. Not easy, not cheap, but in my opinion tanking to the bottom and trying to fix those (and all issues that come along while we are in the cellar) are way riskier and at the very least take a lot longer including few years of suffering. Also right now, we have some guarantees as our current roster is capable to win... tanking deeper those guarantees are off.
 
I still don't know if he has a trade market. Only team I could see trading for him atm is the Nets in a three team Kyrie deal. The contract is just big enough its hard to work a deal. Which may mean its JC/KO that get moved instead. I think you can justify resting Mike more as an aging vet... so you could manage his minutes without catching the leagues attention... maybe.

I still think the Clippers are a potential suitor. I think the Mavericks could be interested. Another interesting team could be the Bucks. Might be a little far-fetched but you never know.
 
I’m really wondering why people are so down on Sexton. He’s been a winning player this season. Almost every lineup he’s apart of has a positive net rating.
I think people underrate the ability to get to the free throw line. It's super valuable to efficient offenses.

That said, if Sexton isn't getting a favorable whistle he can be a little rough.
 
I’m really wondering why people are so down on Sexton. He’s been a winning player this season. Almost every lineup he’s apart of has a positive net rating.
I enjoy him... he is a real positive some nights. He needs some additional run to kind of explore his playmaking a bit. If he can't get better on that end he is just a really good bench player. Which is nice to have but not something that I'm building around per se. I just have my concerns.
 
I think Sexton has a lot of upside as I've said in a lot of posts, but I do understand why some are not so thrilled. He looks erratic at times and is not a good passer, at least not yet. I do think he is showing signs of trying to develop that everyone should be able to see.

Hardy seems to like to put our young guys in different positions all the time, and it could be developing or experimenting... but I definitely have seen him trying to be more versatile than just a driving score first guard.
 
You know why we traded Rudy and DM as well as I do. Had nothing to do with "wanting to tank". It was moving away from something that wasnt working and that was gaining negativity towards us.

Since we got good young pieces in return and a big haul of picks, why does it have to be rebuilding through rock bottom? If we believe Lauri is a potential star and a #2 guy. If Kessler is a good prospect. Beasley could be a nice complementary starter. Sexton seems to at very least be a very serviceable 6th man. Vando, Ochai etc... maybe or maybe not. Do we really need more than a solid guard that has more shelflife than Mike and 1 star, to be up there.

I think we are 2 pieces away from being set for a long haul. Point guard (primary playmaker) and 1 star level forward or tall guard. First we may able to find hidden behind some quality starter, and another one we may just be able to snatch when the next teams start blowing up. Not easy, not cheap, but in my opinion tanking to the bottom and trying to fix those (and all issues that come along while we are in the cellar) are way riskier and at the very least take a lot longer including few years of suffering. Also right now, we have some guarantees as our current roster is capable to win... tanking deeper those guarantees are off.
Lots of assumptions that I don't agree with. Lauri might be a solid number two... but to be a contender many teams have multi all-nba talents. That is the hardest thing to find... that is something we will only get in the draft. Rebuilding teams don't sell off All-NBA talents in their 20s all that often. You might hit on a lot of the other moves you make but not getting that superstar will have you wandering in the NBA middle between the play in and first round exits. Can you get them in the teens in the draft? Sure.

Having a high pick is no guarantee at getting a star... there are zero guarantees... I get that. This draft has at least two tremendous prospects that are about as close to guarantees as you can get. There are many more guys in the college ranks that are tremendous prospects. I will take my chances getting one of those guys and getting the other stuff right.... while abandoning a few guys in their 30s that are solid NBA starters/rotation players... I can get those guys later with the excess picks I have.

I just don't see Lauri as good enough to hit the accelerator and build around. Is he a top 40 nba player? top 30? You still need a top 10 guy to have sustained success next to Lauri. I just see the other parts as things we can replace... most of them are holdovers we couldn't trade for something good or leftovers from the superstar trade we made.
 
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