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The *OFFICIAL* Russia Is About To Invade Ukraine Thread

So in those 36 hours of cease fire it’s only advantageous for Russia?
When you've lost the initiative and are fighting defensively, you need time to regroup much more that the person on offense with initiative. That's pretty basic. If Russia were on the offensive, they would not be calling for a cease-fire.

So is it strategy or heart/minds why he chose not to?
Probably both played a part, as well as other concerns.

I bet there are Ukrainians that want to continue to fight and some on the front lines that would like a break. I don’t know what’s in each persons mind.
I agree.
 
This is exactly what NATO, America, and “The West” made them do. Putin and Russia are innocent. Ukraine just needs to cave in to Putin’s demands to just not exist anymore. Thanks a lot Biden…


View: https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1614335304831213568?s=46&t=aLDV8hKMEqUWJJS6OUPPcA



View: https://twitter.com/rabbiukraine/status/1614327158540845056?s=46&t=aLDV8hKMEqUWJJS6OUPPcA


This seems ominous:

A new CBS News/YouGov poll this week — the first to test the issue since Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke before Congress in December — is the latest to illustrate that drift. And despite Zelensky’s plea for American resolve, it shows that a slight majority of Republicans — 52 percent to 48 percent — want their member of Congress to oppose further Ukraine funding.
But it’s hardly the only signifier of this shift.

The power of Fox propaganda. Tucker and his friends have been attacking Ukraine for months and it’s obviously taking a toll.

 
Not good….

They don't have the equipment to put all these new recruits into a new set of boots, give them basic gear and that says nothing about their ammo, arms and training.

They will probably need to institute martial law and close the boarders in order to conscript 700,000 troops which they will promptly feed into a ****ing meat grinder. They are already sending untrained and under or even non-equipped soldiers to the front line. NATO is going to start sending tanks and APCs to Ukraine as well as training Ukrainian soldiers specifically to counter this upcoming offensive push.

Putin started a fight that he has no idea how to get out of.
 
This will terribly upset Tucker and some of his fanboys on here but this is good news.


Jewish Nazis? Huh?


View: https://twitter.com/bbcstever/status/1618351746392403968?s=46&t=c7_AP5oFwppyyR-dP15e4Q



View: https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1618381169904742402?s=46&t=c7_AP5oFwppyyR-dP15e4Q
 
I get a kick out of Russia thinking that they could take on Germany. They have been shown to be MUCH weaker than everyone thought they were. They are incompetent and their weapons are not as good in the field as they were on paper.

I've said it many times but the U.S. military industrial complex has had regular practice with their weapons, tactics and logistics in actual combat on a large scale non-stop since WWII. How to operate military operations is not theoretical for the U.S. military, it is doctrine established through millions of hours of combat. Our second tier weapons are kicking Russia's *** in the hands of people who are getting accelerated training for them if they are getting training at all.

Russia can't beat a major NATO power. We know that now. Like Germany wouldn't even need the U.S. to lift a finger for them to kick Russia's *** if Russia tried to attack them.
 
I get a kick out of Russia thinking that they could take on Germany. They have been shown to be MUCH weaker than everyone thought they were. They are incompetent and their weapons are not as good in the field as they were on paper.

I've said it many times but the U.S. military industrial complex has had regular practice with their weapons, tactics and logistics in actual combat on a large scale non-stop since WWII. How to operate military operations is not theoretical for the U.S. military, it is doctrine established through millions of hours of combat. Our second tier weapons are kicking Russia's *** in the hands of people who are getting accelerated training for them if they are getting training at all.

Russia can't beat a major NATO power. We know that now. Like Germany wouldn't even need the U.S. to lift a finger for them to kick Russia's *** if Russia tried to attack them.
The single biggest threat, and I think this is a bigger threat than we want to believe, is Putin and his nukes. I think he could be pushed far enough to use one, I really do. I know that MAD is the deterrent, but I could see him betting that we won't retaliate for the very same reason. If he got a wild hair and nuked Berlin, that would be devastating, and frankly I am not sure we would retaliate as no one wants a global nuclear war, which is what that would precipitate. I think he knows this and would be willing to use one nuke to "send a message", and bet that we would not retaliate in kind because we want to avoid the fall-out from that even more.
 
The single biggest threat, and I think this is a bigger threat than we want to believe, is Putin and his nukes. I think he could be pushed far enough to use one, I really do. I know that MAD is the deterrent, but I could see him betting that we won't retaliate for the very same reason. If he got a wild hair and nuked Berlin, that would be devastating, and frankly I am not sure we would retaliate as no one wants a global nuclear war, which is what that would precipitate. I think he knows this and would be willing to use one nuke to "send a message", and bet that we would not retaliate in kind because we want to avoid the fall-out from that even more.
Even if we didn't retaliate I think the world would be so mad at putin that they would be ostracized to a degree that would devastate them.
 
Even if we didn't retaliate I think the world would be so mad at putin that they would be ostracized to a degree that would devastate them.
Yeah I think the retaliation would end up being economic, or in some other way damaging to Russia, but I doubt we would respond with a nuke in kind. That would open it up for Putin to go ham on nukes and we would have no choice but to respond in kind at that point. I really don't know what the best response would be if Putin wiped out Berlin. I could see us entering into a conventional war, like in Ukraine right now, but then will Putin just continue with nukes? I don't know, hard to guess where that would go, but I honestly do not think it is outside of the realm of possibility for what Putin is capable of. I would not be surprised to hear that a bunch of his advisors are restraining him right now, especially with the tanks on the way to Ukraine.
 
Yeah I think the retaliation would end up being economic, or in some other way damaging to Russia, but I doubt we would respond with a nuke in kind. That would open it up for Putin to go ham on nukes and we would have no choice but to respond in kind at that point. I really don't know what the best response would be if Putin wiped out Berlin. I could see us entering into a conventional war, like in Ukraine right now, but then will Putin just continue with nukes? I don't know, hard to guess where that would go, but I honestly do not think it is outside of the realm of possibility for what Putin is capable of. I would not be surprised to hear that a bunch of his advisors are restraining him right now, especially with the tanks on the way to Ukraine.
If he nuked Berlin, or Paris (altho I agree Berlin is more likely) or London or anything outside of Ukraine, we would destroy him, period. That would bring the full force and fury of NATO down. Would we respond with more nukes? I wouldn't rule it out. If it was inside Ukraine, that's a bit more iffy, because, obviously, they are not part of NATO.

I think there's a reasonable chance that Russia actually doesn't have any nukes any more, given how much other stuff have been stolen and sold by the generals. We know SOME nukes went missing, why not all of them?
 
If he nuked Berlin, or Paris (altho I agree Berlin is more likely) or London or anything outside of Ukraine, we would destroy him, period. That would bring the full force and fury of NATO down. Would we respond with more nukes? I wouldn't rule it out. If it was inside Ukraine, that's a bit more iffy, because, obviously, they are not part of NATO.

I think there's a reasonable chance that Russia actually doesn't have any nukes any more, given how much other stuff have been stolen and sold by the generals. We know SOME nukes went missing, why not all of them?
I like the thought that they don't have any more, but I really doubt it. I am sure they have enough to cause pretty substantial devastation.

And I am not sure what form a retaliation would take. If we marched in there and sent all the branches then the next nuke might head to Paris or London or...Washington? At that point a nuclear response would likely be deemed necessary. And we might win that kind of fight, but at what cost? That is why I think we would most likely respond in the form of sanctions. I don't think we have the overwhelming force to engage in anything like a blitzkrieg, so once we started an incursion he would just keep launching nukes. And if he unleashed all they had at once, then we might be at a disadvantage if we were focused on traditional warfare.

Terrifying to think about, unless you are a nihilist at heart, in which case I just find it very interesting.


Quick article from the BBC


What does 'nuclear deterrent' mean and has it worked?​

The argument for maintaining large numbers of nuclear weapons has been having the capacity to completely destroy your enemy would prevent them from attacking you.
The most famous term for this became mutually assured destruction (Mad).
Though there have been many nuclear tests and a constant increase in their technical complexity and destructive power, nuclear weapons have not been used in an armed confrontation since 1945.
Russian policy also acknowledges nuclear weapons solely as a deterrent and lists four cases for their use:
  • the launch of ballistic missiles attacking the territory of the Russian Federation or its allies
  • the use of nuclear weapons or other types of weapons of mass destruction against the Russian Federation or its allies
  • an attack on critical governmental or military sites of the Russian Federation that threatens its nuclear capability
  • aggression against the Russian Federation with the use of conventional weapons when the very existence of the state is in jeopardy
 
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Maybe it has to get to this point:

“Europe must fight. The realisation has been slow in coming. Yet almost one year after Russia invaded Ukraine, most western governments finally understand Kyiv’s war for survival is their war, too. It’s a fight to the death for Ukraine, but also for European democracy, rights and values. It’s a fight against the historical evils of fascism and imperialism embodied by Vladimir Putin, a dictator for our age.

Europe must fight. It really has no choice. As Russia doubles down, threatening a huge new offensive, a turning point approaches when tragedy turns to ruin – or triumph. This moment, when the war has become familiar and wearying, is the moment of maximum danger. From Sweden, Spain, the Netherlands, France, Poland and the Baltic republics, the flow of arms is turning into an urgent torrent.”

 
I think there's a reasonable chance that Russia actually doesn't have any nukes any more, given how much other stuff have been stolen and sold by the generals. We know SOME nukes went missing, why not all of them?
Because we paid for and had oversight on the construction of the facilities where the Russian nukes were stored. The United States was very concerned that as the former Soviet Union collapsed that nukes would wander off so we rushed in with nearly half a billion dollars via the Nunn–Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction and specifically the Nuclear Weapons Storage Security Program (NWSS). We know they have some nukes left because they were in our buildings in Russia.
 
Yeah I think the retaliation would end up being economic, or in some other way damaging to Russia, but I doubt we would respond with a nuke in kind. That would open it up for Putin to go ham on nukes and we would have no choice but to respond in kind at that point. I really don't know what the best response would be if Putin wiped out Berlin. I could see us entering into a conventional war, like in Ukraine right now, but then will Putin just continue with nukes? I don't know, hard to guess where that would go, but I honestly do not think it is outside of the realm of possibility for what Putin is capable of. I would not be surprised to hear that a bunch of his advisors are restraining him right now, especially with the tanks on the way to Ukraine.
We've done economic sanctions to greater than 90% of what can be done. Economic sanctions are wet trash. They have never stopped anyone from doing anything as far as I can tell. They also hurt the most vulnerable the most.

If there was a nuke launched at Berlin and that didn't result in NATO declaring war on Russia then there is no such thing as NATO.

I think the U.S. might make a limited nuclear response, targeting some remote area that has some sort of military or natural resource primary purpose. But on the heels of that would be full mobilization of NATO and declared war on Russia.

In reality, though, I think that if Putin edges too close to that cliff he gets done in from the inside. I don't think the launch happens because I think people very very close to him will prevent it and remove him and dance Putin's shackled self in front of NATO and say "we stopped nuclear holocaust, we will take care of Putin, just let us be the new rulers here and we'll play nice for now.
 
In reality, though, I think that if Putin edges too close to that cliff he gets done in from the inside. I don't think the launch happens because I think people very very close to him will prevent it and remove him and dance Putin's shackled self in front of NATO and say "we stopped nuclear holocaust, we will take care of Putin, just let us be the new rulers here and we'll play nice for now.
I dunno, I think Putin is pretty efficiently taking out anyone who even thinks anything against him. This article is from September, I think there are more recent examples as well.

 
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