Production does matter. You will not catch me evaluating a single prospect without considering their production. When it comes to the twin's production, it is not impressive given the quality of competition. And no, I am not buying the "it's winning basketball" stuff in a league that was basically created to make them look good and the are on the best team. Of course they are the best players by a mile, and that's what brings up question marks. And it's not just raw numbers either. Deeper dives into numbers have only increased the question marks.
2023 NBA Draft Megathread
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Production does matter. You will not catch me evaluating a single prospect without considering their production. When it comes to the twin's production, it is not impressive given the quality of competition. And no, I am not buying the "it's winning basketball" stuff in a league that was basically created to make them look good and the are on the best team. Of course they are the best players by a mile, and that's what brings up question marks. And it's not just raw numbers either. Deeper dives into numbers have only increased the question marks.
He has some game, but if we are making politically incorrect comments about how Dick looks, then how about that he looks like he should have been on a BYU team in the 80s or 90s. Personally I like him in the 15/16 range, just not around 7-12.
They are on the best team because they are the guys who make it the best team. Did you watch the finals at all? You sound dumb right now. The league was not designed for them.
It ain't saying much that they're the best in the league. I did watch the finals and looked up all the players on the other team too for context for what I was watching. What did I find out? They are playing against younger (often much younger) non elite prospects. In other words, it's a high level high school AAU game. It's not like they are playing many NBA prospects if any at all. And I'm just going to mention it again, but they are doing this against guys that are also much younger than them. I'm not impressed if you're 20 years old and beating up on a 17 year old 4 star. I'm sorry but that just doesn't do it for me. But it does worry me if you can't finish at the rim or score well in the halfcourt against this level of competition.
If you're being generous, you can just completely ignore their production at all and don't compare it to anyone in their league. Treat it like Shaedon Sharpe, which for me is to have no opinion. This isn't too far from where I'm at, like I said it's hard to judge. They could be good, bad, or great. Who the hell knows, but their production is not impressing me at all.
Yeah, dude has about the most unlikable look of anyone I can think of.
That being said, if all he is is a scintillating 6’ 8” shooter… well I mean how much more is there to Klay Thompson’s game, really? Shooting the ball is basketball at its essence and being that tall, shooting at that distance, and the point value of those shots mean you’re either going to get good shots up or the defensive gravity will tear a hole in a scheme.
He jumps off the screen about as much as anyone in this draft outside the consensus top-3 (with all due respect to Amen who can’t shoot). It’s one thing to be able to shoot in college, it’s another to have his size, age, and agility on top of it all.
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I share some of One Love’s concerns, but you nailed a key difference and Exum also just wasn’t very good at basketball generally. Amen has a serious shooting deficiency but everything else looks great to me. Get him enough spacing and it might not be a catastrophic weakness (in the playoffs).
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I think it is so on brand that it is strangely likeable. His name being Grady Dick also helps... if his name was Bryn or Grayson then maybe I'd hate him. He just looks like the popular kid in the 80s high school movie that bullies the loser kid who ends up kicking his *** or stealing his girlfriend or both.
Klay at his peak was such a great defender... and I think Dick is smart... good steal rate and all that... just not sure he has Klay's lateral quickness and strength. I think there is a low likelihood you will regret drafting Dick. Which maybe means I should bump him up a few spots...
Yeah, I don’t mean to simplify Klay that much, but if he wasn’t the shooter that he is, what even is he in the league? He’s rotational, but…
All’s I’m saying is scorching the nets from 3 is the hardest thing to defend and is a central part of a high-level NBA offense. So just stressing that it is one of the best strengths to have. He’s also just got the juice and serious size and I think those are big boons to his prospects.
I also think people are kinda giving his shooting a boost because he's white and the players he compared to are mostly white guys who are great at shooting. His shooting numbers are very good, but there are a few who are as good or better on paper but don't get the same respect IMO.
Such as?
Whitehead, Hawkins, Brice, Keyonte, Miller, and Jett all have a very similar or better projected 3FG% based on numbers alone. I'm not going to come after anyone who says Dick is the best shooter, but I feel like the others have an argument and aren't always being compared to the elite shooters in the same way.
I’m actually pleasantly surprised at Whitehead’s 3PT%. I think it matters if you have a high % on more volume. Hawkins is an amazing shooter as well and that’s his best attribute. I see what you’re saying. I think it’s hard to definitively say who the best shooter is without considering the type of difficulty of shots they are taking along with volume.
Coach Ellis
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I think I like Hawkins and Sensabaugh better, simply because they project to be drafted later. GD is a phenomenal shooter, but I’m not sure I want to make a huge, top 10 investment in that.
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The Tay Henny Hive would like a word.
Yeah I'm surprised with Whitehead too. He's much worse around the basket but a much better shooter than his rep coming into college. If he's on an NBA floor I think he might look a lot better.
There are some really good shooters this year.
homeytennis
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I saw a couple of Division 2 players that might worth an UDFA signing. They are almost twins at 6'8" 220 lbs. Both averaged about 22 ppg and 9 boards. One plays for Black Hills State and the other for Point Loma. One went to high school in the Denver area and the other in the Seattle area. Both shoot 40% from three.
This is kinda overkill, but Ima just do a rundown as to what I think are significant differences. Let's start with Dick and see if any of the aformentioned check all of these boxes in the same way or better.
Dick:
-Freshman
-Came in with a reputation as shooter and can do it in a bunch of different ways (motion, some off the dribble)
-Played in a major conference (top-tier SOS. Also, Kansas' SOS is substantially higher than anyone but maybe Baylor but we'll mostly disregard that)
-made 79 3s at 40% (2nd in the Big 12)
-6' 8"
-.582 TS%
-18.1 PER
(note: text in black tries to communicate a wash [unless a factor cannot be improved a la "Freshman"])
Whitehead:
-Freshman
-Did not come in with a reputation as a shooter (I suspect his shots were more stationary as well)
-Played in a major conference
-made 37 3s at 41%
-6' 7" (but 220, probably has the edge here but maybe it's wash-ish)
-.532 TS%
-13.5 PER
Hawkins:
-Sophomore
-Without a doubt a great shooter
-major conference
-made 85 3s at 37%
-6' 5"
-.570 TS%
-19.4 PER
Sensabaugh:
-Freshman
-not sure his rep coming in
-major conference
-made 60 3s at 40.5%
-6' 6"
-.587 TS%
-26.4 PER
George:
-Freshman
-not sure his rep (but definitely shoots more off the dribble than the others)
-major
-made 76 3s at 35% (blech) (also shot 43% from 2... super blech)
-6' 4"
-.534 TS %
-18.3 PER
Miller is simply a superior player, not wasting my time
Howard:
-Freshman
-not sure his rep
-major
-made 78 3s at 37%
-6' 8"
-.562 TS%
-16.7 PER
I know you specifically said they compare similarly by percentage which is somewhat true, but I think there is A LOT more to consider if we're trying to assess exactly how they might translate to the pros and none of those players check the boxes like Dick. It'll be interesting to see official measurements because that is a meaningful attribute to how much one's shot can be bothered generally, but I think age is a huge component. I just don't think anyone compares favorably in all of these respects (save maybe Miller who is just on a different tier altogether).
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The biggest knock on Whitehead for me is that he barely looks 6'5 to me.
I'm sure Dick isnt 6'8 either, but he at least looks close to it w/ shoes.
I'm sure Dick isnt 6'8 either, but he at least looks close to it w/ shoes.
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Oh I think Dick looks long.