Game Thread Mar 18, 2023 07:00PM MT: Jazz vs. Celtics

[Bawse Dawg]

Yeah, the Blazers won the lottery that year, and still managed to **** it up. Having a better pick, even when it's #1, doesn't guarantee success.

Okay. You still have to stink to get the #2 pick and Durant though.

 

[Nate505]

Okay. You still have to stink to get the #2 pick and Durant though.

For sure. The thing is though that unless the team falls out of the lottery in general, who knows where they'll pick. Winning 5 or whatever more games here and there gives you a slight edge, but not an amazing one. I think the difference between 12th (where the Jazz stand now) and 7th (if the Jazz say lost five more games) is a 1.5% chance of winning the lottery vs. a 7.5% chance. Obviously the 7.5% chance is a lot greater, but it's about the odds of rolling a 4 vs rolling a 2 with a pair of dice. It's just not worth it to me to root for losses for that.

 

[Bawse Dawg]

For sure. The thing is though that unless the team falls out of the lottery in general, who knows where they'll pick. Winning 5 or whatever more games here and there gives you a slight edge, but not an amazing one. I think the difference between 12th (where the Jazz stand now) and 7th (if the Jazz say lost five more games) is a 1.5% chance of winning the lottery vs. a 7.5% chance. Obviously the 7.5% chance is a lot greater, but it's about the odds of rolling a 4 vs rolling a 2 with a pair of dice. It's just not worth it to me to root for losses for that.

That is an absolutely massive difference imo. And easily worth the five wins that are essentially meaningless to me. The odds of jumping into top 3 are also way higher.

But I appreciate how you cut right to the heart of it. You either want those five wins or you want 5(+)% better odds. And that’s how the board has divided itself.

 

[Nate505]

That is an absolutely massive difference imo. And easily worth the five wins that are essentially meaningless to me. The odds of jumping into top 3 are also way higher.

But I appreciate how you cut right to the heart of it. You either want those five wins or you want 5(+)% better odds. And that’s how the board has divided itself.

Yeah, I really don't care about the odds. Especially after witnessing what the Jazz have done with the rare Top 5ish pick they get. And after witnessing teams who are constantly lottery pickers and the horrible culture their teams are mired in.

 

[Thee Idiotic Minivan K]

Actually though, after this thread and all the tanker tears, the likelihood of remembering this victory is going to exponentially increase.

And add to your realization had we lost just 5 more games maybe we can draft a guy in a strong draft that would’ve made us a better team

Way more than any more theoretical lottery balls they may or may not have. Oh no, we might have had the 12th pick instead of the 15th. How horrible. Just think, if that didn't happen in 2011, the Jazz could have drafted Kwahi Leonard instead of Alec Burks. What a tragedy that would have been.

This makes no damn sense what so ever I can’t even read or get what kind of logic you’re trying to convey?

It’s not about the 12th pick or low odds at a top 3 pick. It’s about being in the best position possible to have the best odds possible to getting an allstar. Winning as zero advantage for us unless you think there’s a good chance we can go far and odds are ever not in our favor

Yeah, the Blazers won the lottery that year, and still managed to **** it up. Having a better pick, even when it's #1, doesn't guarantee success.

Them are the risks. What’s worse? 1. Getting the first pick and Vic busts, fine we just try again next year, continue to build depth have a top 8 pick next year. Or we get the 12-14 pick and good not great the next five years as a second round team. I’ve endured this for god knows how many years now and I’m done with that strategy.

For sure. The thing is though that unless the team falls out of the lottery in general, who knows where they'll pick. Winning 5 or whatever more games here and there gives you a slight edge, but not an amazing one. I think the difference between 12th (where the Jazz stand now) and 7th (if the Jazz say lost five more games) is a 1.5% chance of winning the lottery vs. a 7.5% chance. Obviously the 7.5% chance is a lot greater, but it's about the odds of rolling a 4 vs rolling a 2 with a pair of dice. It's just not worth it to me to root for losses for that.

Wut?????

Yeah, I really don't care about the odds. Especially after witnessing what the Jazz have done with the rare Top 5ish pick they get. And after witnessing teams who are constantly lottery pickers and the horrible culture their teams are mired in.

Remember the year we got the fifth pick and drafted Exum. Near the end of the year with 4-5 games remaining the jazz hit a buzzer beater three from Burk of all players, well because of that win over Orlando they ended up with the 4th pick, us the 5th we get Exum they took Gordon

 

[NUMBERICA]

That is an absolutely massive difference imo. And easily worth the five wins that are essentially meaningless to me. The odds of jumping into top 3 are also way higher.

But I appreciate how you cut right to the heart of it. You either want those five wins or you want 5(+)% better odds. And that’s how the board has divided itself.

Forget odds. Without lucking into the lottery, those 5 wins might drop the Jazz from ~6th pick to ~14th (ooooooooooooooo the play in!!!!!!1).

I wish I was a rube like some of the galaxy brains here but I’m stuck caring about basic realities.

 

[Tremendous Upside]

Remember the year we got the fifth pick and drafted Exum. Near the end of the year with 4-5 games remaining the jazz hit a buzzer beater three from Burk of all players, well because of that win over Orlando they ended up with the 4th pick, us the 5th we get Exum they took Gordon

**** happens.

 

[Nate505]

And add to your realization had we lost just 5 more games maybe we can draft a guy in a strong draft that would’ve made us a better team

This makes no damn sense what so ever I can’t even read or get what kind of logic you’re trying to convey?

It’s not about the 12th pick or low odds at a top 3 pick. It’s about being in the best position possible to have the best odds possible to getting an allstar. Winning as zero advantage for us unless you think there’s a good chance we can go far and odds are ever not in our favor

Them are the risks. What’s worse? 1. Getting the first pick and Vic busts, fine we just try again next year, continue to build depth have a top 8 pick next year. Or we get the 12-14 pick and good not great the next five years as a second round team. I’ve endured this for god knows how many years now and I’m done with that strategy.

Wut?????

Remember the year we got the fifth pick and drafted Exum. Near the end of the year with 4-5 games remaining the jazz hit a buzzer beater three from Burk of all players, well because of that win over Orlando they ended up with the 4th pick, us the 5th we get Exum they took Gordon

Maybe, maybe not. If the NBA draft has proven anything over the years it's that a high pick isn't necessarily a stronger player, especially around the 5-15 range. There are so many examples it would be tough to list them all.

I'm sorry you can't grasp the rest of it. Perhaps you should look at the past drafts and see. Like in 2011 when the Jazz could have drafted Kwahi but drafted Burks instead. Those extra losses weren't worth much that season.

And I remember the Exum draft well. Most people were thrilled Exum fell to the Jazz and the Magic took Gordon. I also remember that being a really strong draft with can't miss prospects like Wiggins and Parker and Embiid and Exum. Well, at least one of them was a can't miss.

I must say though, these tanker tears get better and better

 

[Thee Idiotic Minivan K]

This is sooooo idiotic as you’re more likely to get an impact player!!! Odds only go up you also give yourself more options making the playoffs does nothing for the future of this team other than small instant gratification. We blew up the team how about we get off to the fastest start we can on the rebuild. The faster the rebuild goes better. This Timo only become. You’re thinking is idiotic and insane at best. AT BEST!!!

 

[Thee Idiotic Minivan K]

Maybe, maybe not. If the NBA draft has proven anything over the years it's that a high pick isn't necessarily a stronger player, especially around the 5-15 range. There are so many examples it would be tough to list them all.

I'm sorry you can't grasp the rest of it. Perhaps you should look at the past drafts and see. Like in 2011 when the Jazz could have drafted Kwahi but drafted Burks instead. Those extra losses weren't worth much that season.

And I remember the Exum draft well. Most people were thrilled Exum fell to the Jazz and the Magic took Gordon. I also remember that being a really strong draft with can't miss prospects like Wiggins and Parker and Embiid and Exum. Well, at least one of them was a can't miss.

I must say though, these tanker tears get better and better

This is sooooo idiotic as you’re more likely to get an impact player!!! Odds only go up you also give yourself more options making the playoffs does nothing for the future of this team other than small instant gratification. We blew up the team how about we get off to the fastest start we can on the rebuild. The faster the rebuild goes better. This Timo only become. You’re thinking is idiotic and insane at best. AT BEST!!!

 

[Thee Idiotic Minivan K]

**** happens.

But **** doesn’t need to happen

 

[Nate505]

This is sooooo idiotic as you’re more likely to get an impact player!!! Odds only go up you also give yourself more options making the playoffs does nothing for the future of this team other than small instant gratification. We blew up the team how about we get off to the fastest start we can on the rebuild. The faster the rebuild goes better. This Timo only become. You’re thinking is idiotic and insane at best. AT BEST!!!

Yikes, if that's at best, what exactly is at worst?

And please, give me the most unhinghed answer you can.

 

[fargon_sneaky_bastage]

I'm late to the game, but I'd rather see this team, that was supposed to tank and was gutted twice to that end, continue to win tough games and gain experience in do-or-die scenarios. Making the playoffs, despite a near guaranteed first round exit, would be a boon for next year's squad and could mean more wins in the late and post seasons.

We have a literal donkey-load of assets that we can use to move up if that's what it takes to get our guy, but the development we're seeing in Abagji, Kessler, and even guys like THT is worth the price in my mind for continuing to push for the playoffs.

 

[Mr. T]

I just wish Silver would introduce quickly a new draft mechanism and include every single team in the lottery with exact same odds so that we could be rid of the whole riddiculous concept of tanking. And a more peacefull life in forums.

 

[NUMBERICA]

One thing is for sure, if criteria for coach of the year is how well a team plays relative to their roster, Hardy should win it this year by a country mile.

It is absolutely mind boggling that this roster - specifically the one that beat the Celtics last night - has been doing what it has.

 

[//r00t 4 Jazz]

Feel like every Jazz win there is this same discussion and topic about Jazz suck and are stupid for winning versus excited for a Jazz win and players playing well, it's like a circle. The flow is circular like a carousal there's ups and downs and wins and losses are like the metaphorical quarter that the Jazz are putting into the people to get them all riled up.

I mean I get yes, I would rather the Jazz lose to get the better pick but I am not going to be mad when players play well enough to win and coaches coach well enough to win. Heck I swear Hardy tries to lose sometimes. I mean he plays lineups in the 2nd Qtr and late 3rd Qtr's that really should lose games, when Dunn is the best player on the court for the Jazz because he's playing with JTA, Juzang, Gay and Tech or Jones... I'm not sure what else they can do as you can't realistically ask players to lose.

Plus they are sitting Sexton and Clarkson when you know if they were making a playoff push they would be playing. Lauri is even sitting the occasional game with his back soreness (like tonight against SAC).

So just asking what do you realistically expect the Jazz to do to lose more games? And again I am in the belief that losing games for the slightly higher odds for a better pick is the better long term option.

Also keep in mind this was somewhat of a "scheduled" loss for BOS, as they had a pretty big disadvantage schedule wise, that I know I would be mad at the schedule makers if this happened to the Jazz in previous season (not this season though).