2023 NBA Draft Megathread

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Vecenie had him in the 30s in his most recent draft board and the ringer have him outside the top 40… no ceilings in the 40s.

It just would be wild for a guy to jump that much at this point in the process.

The No Ceilings guys are super high on him now. Cant remember exactly who (I definitely cant differentiate who is talking on those things, they all sound like big nerds), but the recent pods I was listening to the guys where basically saying they are going to have him lottery soon and they are buying.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Yeah, I did the searches for Hendricks throughout his draft hype span. Pre-season nothing, first month of season = people who are the most up to date on things are calling him a first rounder, end of December was people calling him a potential lottery guy, then from there he just stayed steady as guys fell below him and I would say the last month or two have been people talking themselves into him being top 10.

I just think it's so hard to make it kind of comparison to the news/hype cycle a college prospect gets vs an European guy gets. There's always going to be more hesitancy towards overseas prospects and they usually get more buzz when the college season dies down. Hell multiple teams took college dudes over the most bulletproof European prospect of all time (Luka). Bilal's rise is exceptional, but I dont think it's hyper unique or unheard of.

I dont think any of the college guys in our draft range have put together an impressive enough body of work on tape to make them guaranteed at that spot. If Bilal or GG come into a workout and just murder dudes who are 1,2,3,4 years older than them, I wouldnt be shocked to see DA reach. Hell, Jaylen Brown was considered a bit of a reach when Boston took him at 3. Most mocks had him at 7/8. A reach of 4-5 picks might not seem like much, but that is usually considered pretty sizeable that early in the draft.

It’s hard to make a comparison but it’s also not super unique. Okay… if you can’t use a college comparison find me another foreign player… Giannis is literally the only one I can think of… and I am not sure where he was at this point in the process.

 

[whatthe]

The No Ceilings guys are super high on him now. Cant remember exactly who (I definitely cant differentiate who is talking on those things, they all sound like big nerds), but the recent pods I was listening to the guys where basically saying they are going to have him lottery soon and they are buying.

The edge of the lottery is where he will end up eventually...he's still a risk even though there are signs that he could blossom

 

[KqWIN]

And then it took another month or two of steady production to get him from there to top 10 (maybe). Most national boards still don't have Bilal as a top 30 guy.

Point is, that initial rise often comes quickly. Taylor went from guy you've never heard of to a guy you would take at 15 in barely any time. Rapid rises happen often they usually just happen in November/December because that's the first time people are seeing them. Sometimes it doesn't even take games to rise. Primo entered the combine as a second round prospect and was drafted lotto.

For Bilal, the first time people are seeing him is now. The "big event" that happened is that it was just the first time people actually considered him. If this massive rise happened in Nov/Dec, which is the time prospects usually first get eyes on them, it would not be crazy. It just so happens to be the case that the first time people have eyes on Bilal is now, and some probably still have not.

He might not have enough runway to get to #9, but it took him like two weeks for someone being talked about at #28 to someone being talked about #16. Let's not act like a guy getting drafted 9th who you thought would be there at 16 is some crazy aberration anyways.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

The No Ceilings guys are super high on him now. Cant remember exactly who (I definitely cant differentiate who is talking on those things, they all sound like big nerds), but the recent pods I was listening to the guys where basically saying they are going to have him lottery soon and they are buying.

They love everyone though. Until they run an actual mock or board you can’t trust what they say… they are like me having 25 guys in my top 15.

 

[KqWIN]

The No Ceilings guys are super high on him now. Cant remember exactly who (I definitely cant differentiate who is talking on those things, they all sound like big nerds), but the recent pods I was listening to the guys where basically saying they are going to have him lottery soon and they are buying.

In the Jazz podcast they specifically mentioned him as a candidate for #16. When a prospect is new or unknown to you, your opinion can change quickly. Bilal didn't have 100 point game to make him to #16 from 40 or wherever they had him, it's just that he was still new/unkown to them when they had him at 40 in the same way that Hendricks was new or unknown to them before the season.

 

[NUMBERICA]

It’s hard to make a comparison but it’s also not super unique. Okay… if you can’t use a college comparison find me another foreign player… Giannis is literally the only one I can think of… and I am not sure where he was at this point in the process.

It was late in the process, later than now IIRC. He was also a 6’ 9” PG in a straight garbage draft.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Point is, that initial rise often comes quickly. Taylor went from guy you've never heard of to a guy you would take at 15 in barely any time. Rapid rises happen often they usually just happen in November/December because that's the first time people are seeing them. Sometimes it doesn't even take games to rise. Primo entered the combine as a second round prospect and was drafted lotto.

For Bilal, the first time people are seeing him is now. The "big event" that happened is that it was just the first time people actually considered him. If this massive rise happened in Nov/Dec, which is the time prospects usually first get eyes on them, it would not be crazy. It just so happens to be the case that the first time people have eyes on Bilal is now, and some probably still have not.

He might not have enough runway to get to #9, but it took him like two weeks for someone being talked about at #28 to someone being talked about #16. Let's not act like a guy getting drafted 9th who you thought would be there at 16 is some crazy aberration anyways.

The timing of Taylor's rise just isn't comparable imo. Draft boards are pretty fluid before the season... so big moves are common. Whether he is new or not matters but getting exposure later in the process matters with how quickly or high he will rise.

Primo is a good example... So Giannis and Primo are the only real examples I can think of now... they went 12 and 14. Primo also had the advantage of playing college ball so its a league you know more about.

I do think its an aberration if it happens... if some is wild enough to take him before #16 I'm totally cool. I'm not sold on him. He's interesting... I'd risk him not being there. Taking him at #9 is a reach and I would avoid reaching on guys.

I just don't think its a given his stock continues to rise. He has a meh showing or two in his final games and I think #16 is a smallish reach. It only takes one ******* though... I will err on the side of not being that *******.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Papagiannis likely counts too... I guess... that was a Vlade pick but there are still dumb GMs out there.

Still no one that went top 10... not that they have to get there but we are talking 13,14,12 so far... the higher you go the harder it is.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

It’s hard to make a comparison but it’s also not super unique. Okay… if you can’t use a college comparison find me another foreign player… Giannis is literally the only one I can think of… and I am not sure where he was at this point in the process.

Yeah, I will admit nothing is coming to my mind right away and it's a bit tough to research this stuff in retrospect. We can certainly say there are foreign prospects who should have jumped up and probably didnt because they were foreign (aka Jokic, a 41st overall pick who was immediately pretty damn good for a rookie). Maybe our grasp of foreign prospects is just improving to the point where we can now identify these guys even when they aren't the pre-determined top guys.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

Put it this way... I think Bilal is more likely to go #28 than he is to go #9 as of right now. If he has a big game or some other event.. I will raise where I think he will go.

This is not where I think he should go... just watching drafts in the past and how things work I think our opinion of his stock is likely quite a bit different than around the league.

Bilal wasn't originally considered a prospect for this year's draft. He was somewhat on the radar for next year. I think that's the main reason why he wasn't on draft boards several months ago. Now that he's officially in this draft, he needs to establish his draft range.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Bilal wasn't originally considered a prospect for this year's draft. He was somewhat on the radar for next year. I think that's the main reason why he wasn't on draft boards several months ago. Now that he's officially in this draft, he needs to establish his draft range.

100%, goes back to my theory that declaring and letting it be known you are firmly in is a big boost to your stock. Humans have limited capacity for information so if they dont believe you are coming out, they arent going to waste that memory space thinking about your draft prospects for that year.