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Roster Building From Here - FA and Summer of 2023

My agenda is simple… I do not take anything the front office puts out directly or indirectly as gospel. I hear it and then watch the actions. That’s all… so when DA says the 2024 draft is better than 2023 I laugh cuz it’s either a lie or just a guy saying something off the cuff that he doesn’t really believe imo. Maybe what TJ is saying is the “lie” but I just feel like they have very little motivation to be honest or direct at all… this is poker… why voluntarily show your hand.
Again with the "gospel" and "show your hand" comments. Perhaps you dont see the shades of gray after all.

If I ask you what you think of 2025 draft and ask again in 7 months are you obliged to give the same answer to avoid lying?
 
And beat writers always tell the 100% unfiltered truth

Yall talk so much ish about Tony saying things for the org, but I guess the moment he says something you want to fit your narrative, it's gospel.
Eh, that's just confirmation bias, which is the entire reason for the existence of Twitter.
 
So three potential draft night trades… all using cap space so they would be agreed upon draft night and the deal would be consummated when FA opens (if you are wondering… yes it does happen a lot).

- Brooklyn trades DFS and Joe Harris and 22 to the Jazz for THT, 28, and a Cavs pick.

Brooklyn needs to get out of the tax. This allows them to do that and get a future asset. Jazz get a value 3 and D guy who has struggled in Brooklyn… Harris only has 1 year left and is a solid reclamation project trade deadline asset if he stays healthy and bounces back. We move up a few spots… they get a Cavs pick… just felt like that kinda smoothed out the value.

Atlanta sends John Collins and #15 for KO and #28. Again a salary deal for Atlanta. Honestly might try and keep KO and sun in Gay just for cap fodder and to allow us to still have some room to play with.

Finally… old faithful Miami sends #18 and Duncan Robinson for Rudy Gay… would work in some seconds our way. Duncan has played okay in the playoffs… still think he’s a worthwhile reclamation project if you get some draft equity on top of the deal.

Some of this depends on how draft night goes like I don’t want to draft Hendricks and bring in Collins to play in over him… but it may not be much of an issue for a year or so.
 
So I'm not a huge fan of the guy... but I think Jordan Poole almost surely has to be moved unless GS decides to say goodbye to Dray or Klay over the next 12 months. The new CBA is really going to hammer them...

He's been mostly bad this year and his decision making and defense are rough... but as a starter he is like 25 and 5 and I do think it helps him for some reason. IDK the guy is 23 and I'd imagine the market is fairly limited for him... say the price is like KO and Sexton or KO and THT... you in? Is that contract toxic, bad, or meh?
 
So I'm not a huge fan of the guy... but I think Jordan Poole almost surely has to be moved unless GS decides to say goodbye to Dray or Klay over the next 12 months. The new CBA is really going to hammer them...

He's been mostly bad this year and his decision making and defense are rough... but as a starter he is like 25 and 5 and I do think it helps him for some reason. IDK the guy is 23 and I'd imagine the market is fairly limited for him... say the price is like KO and Sexton or KO and THT... you in? Is that contract toxic, bad, or meh?
If you can get Poole without sending any picks you do it. No brainer. Probably could flip him if his warts on D/decision-making are worth moving on from and cashing in from a team later.

I always wonder who the next “wait, that guy got traded for nothing?”-then-produce-and-have-a-lot-of-value guys are. I think you always grab those and figure out the rest later (Lauri and Lonzo as RFAs come to mind as examples). But part of that is maybe just incubating a player shed in a liquidation sale until you can trade them for 3x what you got them for.
 
If you can get Poole without sending any picks you do it. No brainer. Probably could flip him if his warts on D/decision-making are worth moving on from and cashing in from a team later.

I always wonder who the next “wait, that guy got traded for nothing?”-then-produce-and-have-a-lot-of-value guys are. I think you always grab those and figure out the rest later (Lauri and Lonzo as RFAs come to mind as examples). But part of that is maybe just incubating a player shed in a liquidation sale until you can trade them for 3x what you got them for.
I think there would be some issue if we can't send Sexton in the deal or can't find another home for him. I can see GS just wanting KO so they can get a big boost to the cap issues they will face going forward. I could see another team stepping in and offering a late first or something...

I'm not even sure I liked the deal cuz there are some things about Poole that worry me.

I think there will be some okayish salary dump deals but they will come with players not just big expiring contracts...Poole, Collins, Robinson, Bobby Portis, DFS, Boston has a few guys that could get moved or they let Williams walk... obviously some of those deals will require draft compensation to move.
 
I think there would be some issue if we can't send Sexton in the deal or can't find another home for him. I can see GS just wanting KO so they can get a big boost to the cap issues they will face going forward. I could see another team stepping in and offering a late first or something...

I'm not even sure I liked the deal cuz there are some things about Poole that worry me.

I think there will be some okayish salary dump deals but they will come with players not just big expiring contracts...Poole, Collins, Robinson, Bobby Portis, DFS, Boston has a few guys that could get moved or they let Williams walk... obviously some of those deals will require draft compensation to move.
That’d be a shame for him to get traded. They probably just finished putting in the pool, too.
 
So I'm not a huge fan of the guy... but I think Jordan Poole almost surely has to be moved unless GS decides to say goodbye to Dray or Klay over the next 12 months. The new CBA is really going to hammer them...

He's been mostly bad this year and his decision making and defense are rough... but as a starter he is like 25 and 5 and I do think it helps him for some reason. IDK the guy is 23 and I'd imagine the market is fairly limited for him... say the price is like KO and Sexton or KO and THT... you in? Is that contract toxic, bad, or meh?
Didn't Poole just sign like a 4/$120 mil extension? Holy overpay! I'm not sure Ainge touches that type of contract especially for another small guard. He'd be making almost double what Lauri makes next season. Ouch.
 
So three potential draft night trades… all using cap space so they would be agreed upon draft night and the deal would be consummated when FA opens (if you are wondering… yes it does happen a lot).

- Brooklyn trades DFS and Joe Harris and 22 to the Jazz for THT, 28, and a Cavs pick.

Brooklyn needs to get out of the tax. This allows them to do that and get a future asset. Jazz get a value 3 and D guy who has struggled in Brooklyn… Harris only has 1 year left and is a solid reclamation project trade deadline asset if he stays healthy and bounces back. We move up a few spots… they get a Cavs pick… just felt like that kinda smoothed out the value.

Atlanta sends John Collins and #15 for KO and #28. Again a salary deal for Atlanta. Honestly might try and keep KO and sun in Gay just for cap fodder and to allow us to still have some room to play with.

Finally… old faithful Miami sends #18 and Duncan Robinson for Rudy Gay… would work in some seconds our way. Duncan has played okay in the playoffs… still think he’s a worthwhile reclamation project if you get some draft equity on top of the deal.

Some of this depends on how draft night goes like I don’t want to draft Hendricks and bring in Collins to play in over him… but it may not be much of an issue for a year or so.
I kinda like the DFS idea but wouldn't trade more than 1 draft pick and it better be protected. Having someone like him be a placeholder next to Lauri/Kessler could be a really good idea especially if they can draft a forward in this coming draft.
 
I think myself and HH are the only two on here who have presented the Duncan Robinson idea and I’m willing to engage with it again. He has looked good in his last two games against Milwaukee.

He has three years left with the last year being a partial guarantee:

18.1M
19.4M
19.9M (9.9M guaranteed)

I think I would take him and 18 for Gay.

16/18 could be enough to get us up to 11/12 if we wanted to go that route.
 
I think myself and HH are the only two on here who have presented the Duncan Robinson idea and I’m willing to engage with it again. He has looked good in his last two games against Milwaukee.

He has three years left with the last year being a partial guarantee:

18.1M
19.4M
19.9M (9.9M guaranteed)

I think I would take him and 18 for Gay.

16/18 could be enough to get us up to 11/12 if we wanted to go that route.
I'm generally supportive of a Duncan Robinson move and think the perceived toxicity of his contact has been greatly exaggerated by popular opinion. That's not to say he's some value contract, but I think too often "truisms" about guys can account for +/- like 35% of their value. If we got their pick this year, I'd like some kind of consolidation move with all the picks this year. Maybe even trading them for future firsts.
 
I think myself and HH are the only two on here who have presented the Duncan Robinson idea and I’m willing to engage with it again. He has looked good in his last two games against Milwaukee.

He has three years left with the last year being a partial guarantee:

18.1M
19.4M
19.9M (9.9M guaranteed)

I think I would take him and 18 for Gay.

16/18 could be enough to get us up to 11/12 if we wanted to go that route.
I think you could nab a handful of seconds (if they have any) as well to replenish that cupboard. It depends a little on who we draft but yeah... Duncan didn't forget how to shoot. Hardy has some connection I believe... maybe they just went to the same school.

18 would be solid trade fodder or allow you to use 16 as fodder without as much of a penalty. Say the Mavs will trade 10 for 16 and a future pick (they may want to gather a couple other picks to trade for a star or solid starter). Say we came out of the draft with Wallace or Black and Hendricks... and can shoot the moon with the 18th pick if we want as well..

Anyway... obviously it could go a lot of ways but 18 is a solid asset and I think Duncan can give you a solid 20-25 minutes for a couple years.
 
Didn't Poole just sign like a 4/$120 mil extension? Holy overpay! I'm not sure Ainge touches that type of contract especially for another small guard. He'd be making almost double what Lauri makes next season. Ouch.
I get that... I just think he's 24 years old and maybe there is more there. Its a negative deal for sure... I'm just not sure exactly how negative it is.
 
I'm generally supportive of a Duncan Robinson move and think the perceived toxicity of his contact has been greatly exaggerated by popular opinion. That's not to say he's some value contract, but I think too often "truisms" about guys can account for +/- like 35% of their value. If we got their pick this year, I'd like some kind of consolidation move with all the picks this year. Maybe even trading them for future firsts.
I think you could line up a deal for a future first with 18 or 28 but also poke around at trade up scenarios and if one does not materialize you move the pick for a future first. You could also like the guys at 18 more than 28 and move the 28th pick for a ton of seconds (I pretty much hate this idea but not sure we'd want to bring in 4 rookies on guaranteed deals). I think you could flip #28 on draft night for one of the protected picks that NY owns as well. NY currently has no picks in the draft.
 
If you landed another pick in the mid-teens I'm fairly sure you could flip #28 to SA for like 3-4 seconds (they own a TON) and make one of them the 2024 SA second so it would likely be in the 30s next year. That would be a worst case scenario type thing.
 
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