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2023 NBA Draft Megathread

Except that it happens all teh time.

It doesn't. Jaylen Brown is the closest thing, but he was the third pick in the draft and not exactly a draft steal and there are levels to being bad. I am positive you are going to make up your own version of what I mean, so I don't even know why I entertain this kind of post.
 
Uh, pretty sure the Spurs won in 2014? Positive the Warriors didn’t at least.

And that Spurs team was just a great all around team, a perfect example of what you’re trying to disprove with this post. Convenient mistake. But I could be misremembering.

Yeah, that's a typo. You're right, occasionally the team that doesn't have the most dominant player, but has more floor balance can win. The other example is Detroit in 2004. I could keep going with this exercise and show that 90% of the chips go to the MVP candidate's team.
 
Yeah, that's a typo. You're right, occasionally the team that doesn't have the most dominant player, but has more floor balance can win. The other example is Detroit in 2004. I could keep going with this exercise and show that 90% of the chips go to the MVP candidate's team.

San Antonio won a lot of championships and that Dallas championship team had a talent deficit. The trick is, once you win a championship the "dominant player" title gets retroactively applied to you, which is fair, but not instructive. Curry wasn't a world beater until all of the sudden he was. Same with Kawaii.
 
San Antonio won a lot of championships and that Dallas championship team had a talent deficit. The trick is, once you win a championship the "dominant player" title gets retroactively applied to you, which is fair, but not instructive. Curry wasn't a world beater until all of the sudden he was. Same with Kawaii.

Dirk Nowitzki was an MVP-level player and the most dominant scorer in that Dallas series vs. OKC.

San Antonio ran a unique system, but for three chips at least, Duncan was dominant. When SAS beat Cleveland, you could argue that Lebron was the most dominant player, but he had nothing else around him.

But true, you need a player who can dominate a series, rather than a perennial MVP necessarily. Looking at the Nuggets/Lakers game last night, Jamal Murray was most dominant in the 1st half and Jokic was most dominant in the 4th quarter.
 
While yes, it is hard to find blue chip Freshman (who have had great success at the NBA level) who played as poorly as GG did his Freshman year (Quentin Grimes is a name that comes to mind as he rises after having a very Freshman year), it's also hard to find a blue chip prospect who entered college an entire year early, played half their season at 17 years old, and played on one of the worst teams in one of the top conferences. I think it's fair to sparse out his easier games and use those as a positive indicator.
 
If you filter out GG's conference games (a league he was way too overmatched to play in at his age) he averaged shooting splits on 43/37 averaging 18 ppg.

I get what you are saying, but it's just way too much of a risk for me at 9. At 16, I wouldn't love it, but I also would get it there.
 
Are we drafting GG to be a small usage, defensive role player like Grimes? I think GG can succeed, but not in the way he completely failed at in college. He will have to find another way like Grimes and McDaniels. I think most prospects look pretty amazing if you just ignored when they looked bad. But GG wasn't exactly Mr. Efficiency in non conference games either. He was better than his 44% TS in conference games at least, but the 45% on twos combine with the low FTr is not promising. He shot the ball well from 3 though, I like him as a spot up shooter and can buy into that as an NBA skill.

Usually we care more about when the competition is better, but if we're entertaining this idea that we just ignore the conference games many of my questions marks still persist. He has a low FTr, his assist to turnover ratio is comically bad, he was not special from a rebounding/stocks perspective, and while I didn't watch these games do we believe he was playing defense?

The SEC is a tough college basketball conference. The NBA is a million times harder.
 
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