Keyonte does not have to be moved to build around Sexton so yeah this comment doesn’t make sense.
Collin Sexton SZN
- Thread starter Elizah Huge
- Start date
I always like these arguments where we take something that’s true and apply it in a context that stretches the concept completely beyond recognition. It’s like saying that it’s true that water puts out fire, therefore keep a loaded squirt gun in your house to fight a house fire. The idea that as minutes and touches go up, efficiency and performance decline. Yes. Does it completely fall off a cliff? Sexton has a 55.3% eFG% this year in 24.2 mpg. If he were to see, say, 30 mpg (a 24% increase in minutes), what do you think his eFG% would drop to in those additional 6 minutes? 52%? 50%? 40%? 5%? Even give that a generous drop off and then weight that for the minutes played and come back and tell me what his overall eFG% still is. I’ll wait if anyone is willing to actually run those numbers. If you won’t actually run those estimates to get a scale on off-repeated truisms like “efficiency drops with minutes and attempts,” then don’t make the lazy argument or you look like a guy putting out fires with squirt guns — technically true but completely meaningless.
But, better yet, even though he’s 55.3% eFG% in 24.2 mpg this year, as a starter he’s got an eFG% of 58.5% this year in 27.8 mpg.
This is also a variant of “the plan is always right” theory, where a guy who gets little burn at some point in time but explodes later, is told that since they’re now exploding, it’s because the developmental approach to bring along slowly worked. But if they don’t get burn and don’t get an opportunity, you say, “of course, they never amounted to anything and that’s why they never got time, and it was justified.” This variant is “person X is doing this well because they’re NOT getting more time and we should stick with the plan because the plan is why we’re seeing the good results.”
It’s an endless loop that justifies conservative approach in every scenario. Player playing well in limited minutes? It’s because the minutes are limited. Coach would play them if it were real. Player playing bad in limited minutes? Of course, that’s why they’re not getting minutes. Coach isn’t playing them because they don’t play good.
But, better yet, even though he’s 55.3% eFG% in 24.2 mpg this year, as a starter he’s got an eFG% of 58.5% this year in 27.8 mpg.
This is also a variant of “the plan is always right” theory, where a guy who gets little burn at some point in time but explodes later, is told that since they’re now exploding, it’s because the developmental approach to bring along slowly worked. But if they don’t get burn and don’t get an opportunity, you say, “of course, they never amounted to anything and that’s why they never got time, and it was justified.” This variant is “person X is doing this well because they’re NOT getting more time and we should stick with the plan because the plan is why we’re seeing the good results.”
It’s an endless loop that justifies conservative approach in every scenario. Player playing well in limited minutes? It’s because the minutes are limited. Coach would play them if it were real. Player playing bad in limited minutes? Of course, that’s why they’re not getting minutes. Coach isn’t playing them because they don’t play good.
fishonjazz
Well-Known Member
Contributor
2018 Award Winner
2019 Award Winner
20-21 Award Winner
2022 Award Winner
2023 Award Winner
2024 Award Winner
2025 Award Winner
Tremendous Upside
Well-Known Member
No. Don't know where you pulled that from. We're talking about usage rate. You "use" a possession with a field goal attempt, a free throw attempt, or a turnover. A player may play all 48 minutes and have a **** ton of touches, but still maintain a very low usage %. And:
Find more here:
NBA STATS | Usage Rate in Basketball Explained
Usage rate aka usage percentage is an estimate of the percentage of team plays used by a player while he was on the floor.
www.nbastuffer.com
It’s an idea that’s kicking around a lot on the board and not specifically your post. But, in any case, go through the same exercise. If you kicked his usage up a few percentage points, go ahead and give a liberal estimate of how much that drops off.
I just posted a huge response and it refreshed and the above is the only thing saved, so I’m not going to repost it but the bottom line is thinking jumping usage a few points is going to be the difference between efficiency and an inefficient chucker is pretty silly (I know you and others haven’t said that specifically but it’d have to at least partially be the argument for that to be a concern). Go ahead and run the numbers with liberal estimates on how much his efficiency would have to tank in that additional usage (or minutes, speaking to the larger argument) to be able to have a sizable impact. Diminishing returns, sure, but how much? Go ahead and run those numbers and you’ll see that the weighting of it all will make it largely irrelevant.
Do you remember the Millsap Doctrine?
For sure.
Like who is the rookie out there who is tasked to do anything even close to as complex as George is when he runs our complex motion based offense? Is there even a rookie out there who actually runs any offense, instead of being just another clog in the wheel?
Scoot was supposed to be playing actual lead guard PG as well but have you watched him? Dude plays like a SG with some nice passes here and there but when they let him run the half court its just next level cloggy and ends up in bad shots at the dying clock way too often.
Tremendous Upside
Well-Known Member
Complex?
To me it looked like he wasn't running much of anything against the Wiz. He's not dictating the tempo, directing guys on the floor, managing the clock. Those are basic things for an NBA point guard. I mean you don't have to be a full-on "floor general" in today's league, but then you also don't get to receive extra props for making the first pass of a play when there's not even any ball pressure on you.
Keyonte has been god awful lately and shouldn't be receiving any minutes.
Which one isnt complex? Our offense, or Keyonte's assigment which you pretend to know but have absolutely no idea what it is?
He has played worse lately for sure, but Hardy has told us multiple times that he has been given a tall task list. You can pretend all you want that your eyeball test is superior, but my comment is based on what Hardy has said. And he is the one who knows who is actually doing what they are supposed to do.
Also its super easy to see that he does pace the offense and I dont really know how you can miss that. He ALWAYS puts his head up as soon as he gets the ball in the backcourt and scans ahead, makes occasional forward passes and slows down/speeds up his dribble based on what he sees. He is constantly reading the court when he has the ball even during his drives. His biggest flaw in operating the offense is probably the fact that he runs into situations where he picks up his dribble too easily without knowing what he is going to do next. That is what leads to most of his telegraphed passes as well as traveling turnovers which he has also had.
I have no doubt he could play for his own points a WHOLE lot more with his ability to get around the court, but he is actually trying to run the offense and only attacks clear advantages he sees.
Tremendous Upside
Well-Known Member
Any reasonably experienced vet min PG picked up from the trash heap can get a team into a set and get out of the way. But the Jazz obviously isn't expecting Keyonte to become a Tyus Jones like ball-mover. He's getting minutes because they want him to function on a higher level eventually.
The biggest problem on offense is that he seems to be a really bad shooter, and having the defense respect him at the arc is the only way for him to gain an advantage since he's not very quick for a 6'3'' guard. If he can't magically become a 36% shooter from the perimeter, that may change his whole career trajectory.
I've said many times that Keyonte has an eye for cutters and a good sense for how players are moving around the floor. Unfortunately, he can't just stand in place and keep whipping the ball at guys diving to the hoop.
I'm ready to accept that his offense has time to develop, hopefully after he does a TON of work next offseason. But he has no excuses for his defense. Key simply doesn't compete hard enough and often looks like an entitled high school star with the way he gives up on plays.
IMO it wouldn't hurt him to spend some time in the G-League. We don't need him at the moment.