Now you are trolling. You were the one that mentioned guys like Ja, Zion and Jaylen but now the standard is all time great like Jokic and Curry. Stop with this crap. There isn't a single person on this board that would be disappointed if we were to get a player the caliber of Kyrie, Beal, KAT or Trae with a top 5 pick and that includes you.
Does Lauri Get Traded?
- Thread starter Saint Cy of JFC
- Start date
Now you are trolling. You were the one that mentioned guys like Ja, Zion and Jaylen but now the standard is all time great like Jokic and Curry. Stop with this crap. There isn't a single person on this board that would be disappointed if we were to get a player the caliber of Kyrie, Beal, KAT or Trae with a top 5 pick and that includes you.
I kind of feel like the more important thing for a tank than not having great players is having a ton of young inexperienced players and giving them tons of minutes. Meaning... I don't mind if you have Lauri and Sexton on the team(those are the two that people seem to most want to keep). As long as you can guarantee tons of minutes to Hendricks, Keyonte, Sensabaugh, Williams, Collier, Filipowski, Lofton... In other words, I don't want to see 2xJC take ANY of those minutes. Just... trade them for whatever you can get. I'm a bit split on Kessler. I don't want us to pick some mediocre starter and play him 30 minutes a game. Also... load management... and injury management. Do A LOT OF IT! No need to push Lauri to get back from a sprained ankle in a week. Give him 3 or 4 instead. No need to play Sexton and Lauri on back to backs... just pick a game and sit them in one of them... etc. You get it.
SteakNEggs
Well-Known Member
At first it was a definite no
Then it seemed like it was going to happen for a few days
Now I don't think it's happening again
Then it seemed like it was going to happen for a few days
Now I don't think it's happening again
I like all of this.
I'd just add that you can also sell Lauri and Sexton on spending possessions outside their established comfort zones (i.e. in game-expanding situations). Put Lauri in more playmaking scenarios; have Colin take more off-the-dribble 3s; etc. Expand their games before optimizing possessions next year.
Also FWIW @Handlogten's Heros I think my tanking perspective has matured largely thanks to the debates we have had. I was much more of a black and white guy two years ago, but some of it is sinking in.
However I am still 100% sure its not THE PLAN, or even a great plan in all circumstances. You need to give up winning players to become a losing team, and that is what you eventually hope to get by doing so which is the paradox I'm finding hard to overcome. You dont just flip the switch one day and turn those losing guys into winning guys either. The MVP level guy is THE argument for tanking that I can somewhat get behind. The odds are better at the top. However they are still crap, and those guys come up realistically once ever 3 years or so. And only 1 of the 30 teams get "the correct pick" to land that guy. Its not always 1, or top 3, or even top 10.
If we were in a situation where giving up a 32 year old vet would help us lose 5 games then get the guy the **** out of here already. But giving up Kessler to lose more? Really? Giving up Lauri is even riskier, as then you need to find not 1 but 2 stars.
However I am still 100% sure its not THE PLAN, or even a great plan in all circumstances. You need to give up winning players to become a losing team, and that is what you eventually hope to get by doing so which is the paradox I'm finding hard to overcome. You dont just flip the switch one day and turn those losing guys into winning guys either. The MVP level guy is THE argument for tanking that I can somewhat get behind. The odds are better at the top. However they are still crap, and those guys come up realistically once ever 3 years or so. And only 1 of the 30 teams get "the correct pick" to land that guy. Its not always 1, or top 3, or even top 10.
If we were in a situation where giving up a 32 year old vet would help us lose 5 games then get the guy the **** out of here already. But giving up Kessler to lose more? Really? Giving up Lauri is even riskier, as then you need to find not 1 but 2 stars.
fishonjazz
Well-Known Member
Contributor
2018 Award Winner
2019 Award Winner
20-21 Award Winner
2022 Award Winner
2023 Award Winner
2024 Award Winner
2025 Award Winner
Ya it could be a really quick turnaround if we get a legit stud in next year's draft, one or two of Hendricks, key, Collier, Cody break out in 25-26 season, and we make a splash or two in free agency next summer.
Could be top 5 in the West after next season with some good luck.
Sent from my CPH2451 using Tapatalk
fishonjazz
Well-Known Member
Contributor
2018 Award Winner
2019 Award Winner
20-21 Award Winner
2022 Award Winner
2023 Award Winner
2024 Award Winner
2025 Award Winner
And for the back to backs be strategic which ones you sit them in.
If we are playing the nuggets and the wizards in a back to back then play Lauri and Sexton against the nuggets who will probably beat us anyway and then rest them against the wizards and maybe we can pull off the loss.
Sent from my CPH2451 using Tapatalk
fishonjazz
Well-Known Member
Contributor
2018 Award Winner
2019 Award Winner
20-21 Award Winner
2022 Award Winner
2023 Award Winner
2024 Award Winner
2025 Award Winner
Tell Kessler to pretend to be dirk on offense and have him guard Kyrie on the perimeter on defense. Let him expand his game lol.
Sent from my CPH2451 using Tapatalk
I like this albeit its also sort of risky as they might bleed value. So I wouldn't make them do outlandish things, but instead try to expand it in a way that can at least theoretically be successful.
I’m team keep Lauri and trade Clarkson and Collins if possible. Possibly look into trading Sexton if the value was right.
Wow, getting bold.
I'm very solidly in the team that thinks Danny will eventually be "forced" to trade Lauri. Its just not necessarily gonna happen this offseason.
Its just that one of two things will eventually happen (or they meet in the middle):
- Timeline gets too whacky
- The godfather offer comes
So unless something accelerates the timeline or unless the trade market outlook changes dramatically from this arms race situation... I dont see how DA would not eventually be put into the situation where making the move is the smartest thing to do.
Its just that one of two things will eventually happen (or they meet in the middle):
- Timeline gets too whacky
- The godfather offer comes
So unless something accelerates the timeline or unless the trade market outlook changes dramatically from this arms race situation... I dont see how DA would not eventually be put into the situation where making the move is the smartest thing to do.
I am not sure it is exactly a model: it happened once. Somehow teams are not crazy to trade their young talent with All Star potential (Keegan Murray, Jalen Williams) for a star (Lauri). And OKC still had to tank for two seasons and was rewarded with Holmgren (2nd pick) and Giddey (6th), so in reality it was the same tanking model with a lucky twist.
If it doesnt happen this off-season I doubt it ever happens.
Handlogten's Heros
Well-Known Member
2019 Award Winner
20-21 Award Winner
2022 Award Winner
2023 Award Winner
2024 Award Winner
2025 Award Winner
2025 Prediction Contest Winner
And I was probably being harder or assuming you were headed some places that I have rehashed. My bad. I think the NBA landscape is shifting a bit so its hard to find exact models. Not that everything is so unique. I just think our situation currently the tank is by far the wisest course of action. If we didn't owe a pick to OKC, if the next two drafts appeared to be "meh", and if the right win now players came available... I might see it different.
And let it be known... I think its absolutely stupid that the system we participate in requires/rewards teams being really bad to have a shot at legendary talents. And that ultimately you need to be bad and get just straight luck. I don't have a much better replacement but this just all seems counterintuitive to sport and competition.
If we land top 5 in next years draft and retain Lauri I do think we have a shot to do something awesome. With Lauri I just keep coming back to - Stock and Malone wanted to be here, Rudy wanted to be here, and guys like Gordo, DWill, Donny, Booze all kind of wanted out or bailed out for one reason or another. I don't want to have that loser mentality of "these guys will leave us" but it also seems weird to be like "trade this AS that wants to be here". I just want us to be straight with him about it being 1-2 year process or longer if we strike out. I also think with the West the way it is and with as many teams as there are that are all-in... we can end up 3rd or 4th in the league if we cut other parts and it can be a pretty quick turnaround.
Also with the cap issues teams are having the next 12-24 months could bring some unforeseen tear downs. We'd be in a position to short cut the process but not short change it if things line up right. If it doesn't we move Lauri later in part to do right by him.
Still catching up on all the news, but I get the impression that there were no godfather offers out there and Ainge will not accept less that that. So I guess we're somewhat in the same holding pattern that we've always been in. There is a price for everyone, for Lauri it is high, that offer doesn't exist for him at this moment. Extremely freezing take, I know, but this is evident by Lauri not being traded yet.
I remember having a similar conversation when were talking Don trades. Some argued to death that we should be willing to take a worse deal to tank more immediately. Seems as though these conversations always turns circular because there are too many permutations based on low probability outcomes. You're going to need an incredible string of luck and great decision making no what path you take and the more big picture you take things the more murky things get. You can't actually all the possibilities and permutations, whatever you're biased towards you will see the light and vice versa. There is no model.
What I do think gets discounted in these discussions is that while drafting higher is undeniably better than drafting lower, the goal of a rebuild isn't necessarily to have the best chance of drafting a star. The goal of a rebuild is to have as most talent as possible and what I would not discount is the 100% chance at having Lauri Markannen. So while it's undeniable that Lauri hurts our tank chances, how do you weigh that versus the chances of getting another Lauri in addition to another star. This is the same question to ask for Sexton and Kessler as well. You're always making that calculation on whether or not this player is worth whatever lottery odds they might take away from you. I think it's an interesting discussion on both, but that will need another thread.
The other side of this is there's theoretically always a chance you can trade for a player of Lauri's caliber again. As much as I love Lauri, I really don't think he's the kind of generational talent that you must build around. While you can't ever hope that a Luka/Giannis type will be available in trade and willing to go to Utah, you can with reasonable confidence think that someone of Lauri's caliber could be acquire through trade at some point down the line. This obviously goes for players like Sexton and Kessler as well.
Even though my standards of what a "godfather" offer appear to be different, I don't think it's worth it to trade him for a subpar offer. I learned that he can be traded on deadline day this season, so you can keep your options open. From a personal enjoyment perspective, I think it's incredibly lame that we're entering another season where we're not competing for a top lotto spot or a playoff spot....but at least I can say with this roster there aren't any players where I'm thinking "what's the point of him being here". Lauri, Sexton, and Kessler....you could argue that they are all worth their weight even though they will make you lose lotto balls. The young guys are the young guys. The JC's are their own category where it's a completely different decision and that decision is to dump them or not with their negative value contracts + open up playing time or wait for them to expire + pray they rehab value. What we don't have are a bunch of pointless veterans that have positive value but don't figure to play into a long term future.
If there's a chance for a godfather offer, it's probably not going to happen until deadline when Lauri is on an extended deal. I'm willing to take half a season of worse tanking than a worse offer right now.
I remember having a similar conversation when were talking Don trades. Some argued to death that we should be willing to take a worse deal to tank more immediately. Seems as though these conversations always turns circular because there are too many permutations based on low probability outcomes. You're going to need an incredible string of luck and great decision making no what path you take and the more big picture you take things the more murky things get. You can't actually all the possibilities and permutations, whatever you're biased towards you will see the light and vice versa. There is no model.
What I do think gets discounted in these discussions is that while drafting higher is undeniably better than drafting lower, the goal of a rebuild isn't necessarily to have the best chance of drafting a star. The goal of a rebuild is to have as most talent as possible and what I would not discount is the 100% chance at having Lauri Markannen. So while it's undeniable that Lauri hurts our tank chances, how do you weigh that versus the chances of getting another Lauri in addition to another star. This is the same question to ask for Sexton and Kessler as well. You're always making that calculation on whether or not this player is worth whatever lottery odds they might take away from you. I think it's an interesting discussion on both, but that will need another thread.
The other side of this is there's theoretically always a chance you can trade for a player of Lauri's caliber again. As much as I love Lauri, I really don't think he's the kind of generational talent that you must build around. While you can't ever hope that a Luka/Giannis type will be available in trade and willing to go to Utah, you can with reasonable confidence think that someone of Lauri's caliber could be acquire through trade at some point down the line. This obviously goes for players like Sexton and Kessler as well.
Even though my standards of what a "godfather" offer appear to be different, I don't think it's worth it to trade him for a subpar offer. I learned that he can be traded on deadline day this season, so you can keep your options open. From a personal enjoyment perspective, I think it's incredibly lame that we're entering another season where we're not competing for a top lotto spot or a playoff spot....but at least I can say with this roster there aren't any players where I'm thinking "what's the point of him being here". Lauri, Sexton, and Kessler....you could argue that they are all worth their weight even though they will make you lose lotto balls. The young guys are the young guys. The JC's are their own category where it's a completely different decision and that decision is to dump them or not with their negative value contracts + open up playing time or wait for them to expire + pray they rehab value. What we don't have are a bunch of pointless veterans that have positive value but don't figure to play into a long term future.
If there's a chance for a godfather offer, it's probably not going to happen until deadline when Lauri is on an extended deal. I'm willing to take half a season of worse tanking than a worse offer right now.
Getting a top 5 pick in next years draft whether we keep Lauri or not sets us up really well. Dylan Harper is my 5th pick right now and I he is still a great fit with us.
Pg- Dylan Harper, Collier
Sg- Key, Cody Williams
Sf- Hendricks
Pf- Lauri, Collins
C- Walker, Flip
Sexton is a little bit difficult to figure out as a long term piece. If you want to solidify the tank this year moving Sexton could the piece to move if the value is there.
We would also be looking at 2 other first in probably the 20-30 range from the cavs and wolves.
Handlogten's Heros
Well-Known Member
2019 Award Winner
20-21 Award Winner
2022 Award Winner
2023 Award Winner
2024 Award Winner
2025 Award Winner
2025 Prediction Contest Winner
I think we still need a trade or two to really do that. Coaches will lean into their vets so you kinda have to remove the temptation. As bad as Clarkson was last year I think Collier would be worse in terms of winning games. Collins wasn't a worldbeater but if you have him and Sexton they could create enough PnR magic to win a few games you don't want to. Many of the tanking teams will have youth in the rotation. I doubt all 6 first and second year players will be in the rotation unless we move stuff around.
framer
Well-Known Member
I think the problem is the failure to recognize the very large downside to tanking.Tanking and missing on a "superstar" has very real and large consequences. Also it is not at all entertaining and largely removes mine and many others desire to be a fan. If my team is unwatchable for 5 years, I am just going to move on to other stuff.
You are more likely to become Washington than hit on a Wemby.
Thee Idiotic Minivan K
Well-Known Member
But no one wants them and no one will pay what Sexton is worth to us.