2024-25 Trade Rumors Thread

[jazznik]

Kessler is Kessler, but the 2031 pick can be anything. It could even be another Kessler!

 

[The Jazz Wonderbra]

I think a trade centered around the 2031 phoenix 1st and nurkic would look something like this...View attachment 17656

I wasn't advocating for this. I am just looking at what would actually work. Trading with the suns is hard.

Their 2031 unprotected would be a significant asset, no question. Having said that, I love walker. If the suns swapped out Nurkic for Kessler, they instantly get a lot better.

If they had a pick swap in addition to the 2031 unprotected, it would be a lot more interesting. But they don't have any pick swaps left.

 

[The Jazz Wonderbra]

Take the emotion out of it. Its 2031... losing a player you like in Walker sucks but you end up with a top 3 pick and he is an All Star for sure and you think back to Walker... do you really have heart burn about it?

If it is a guy like Hendricks then you punted. The suns in 2031 should be very much in trouble.

 

[The Jazz Wonderbra]

I am not saying I pull the trigger but there is appeal, no question.

 

[KqWIN]

Maybe. Right now the tank is tanking tho. We will never catch the Wiz. 2nd and 3rd worst is pretty similar. I think we out tank NO but it could be close. I'm not particularly worried about the East teams as I think they cannabilize themselves. Porty has already doubled up our wins. Moving Walker might just be the diff between 2 and 3 and it just isn't worth it to me.

With NO their schedule gets easier in January. Zion has a wonky contract but I think if he doesn't appear in like 41 games he can be waived. I don't think anyone has the full terms there. Either way he may come back long enough to hit his marks and it may be in the easy part of their schedule. BI will get moved or re-sign before the end of the year. It will depend on what they get there too. I think its kind of a toss up between us and them right now.

If it was just Walker for 2031 and some seconds... then fine. I am enjoying watching these assy games tho... and Nurk will make that so much harder... and likely not gonna be able to move him for a year and a half. We have to think about my sanity okay.

It's still not a black/white question. Any way you slice it, your chances of getting any position are better/worse depending on who you have on your team. There is some chance we are ahead or behind a certain team and any player that helps us win makes those chances worse. I've been vocal about the flattened odds and how they make it so that positioning is less significant, but it still matters. And we should probably be thinking about the tanking impact beyond this season as well.

Walker has a lot of value once we eventually make it to the other side of the tunnel, not sure a PHX 31 is worth it but we should be asking what that future value is for each of the players that are actually helping us win at the moment.

I like PHX 31 better than the "two firsts" asking price that's been out there. We know those two first are probably mid at best and we don't need any more crappy picks. I'd probably give up all of our remaining CLE picks for that PHX pick.

 

[FrenchJazzFa]

I would not trade Walter, He is young got potential and even in a winning team he can be a good back-up C if he don't improve enough before. If DA decide to trade, Sexton, Clarkson are much better pieces and will help the tank. Actually i don't think tank is in danger, We will ended bottom 2 or 3. Hope the lottery balls go our way.

 

[jazznik]

Take the emotion out of it. Its 2031... losing a player you like in Walker sucks but you end up with a top 3 pick and he is an All Star for sure and you think back to Walker... do you really have heart burn about it?

OK, lets do some math. Lets make a rather rosy assumption that in 2031 the Suns are most likely to finish with the 5th worst record. The odds of them getting the top 3 pick is 31% and the relevant compilation of stats gives about the 53% chance that the drafted in the top 3 player will be an All Star later in their career. That means that you are ready to trade Kessler for the 16% chance (1 out of 7) that this pick years later (10-12 years from now?) may become an All Star.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

It's still not a black/white question. Any way you slice it, your chances of getting any position are better/worse depending on who you have on your team. There is some chance we are ahead or behind a certain team and any player that helps us win makes those chances worse. I've been vocal about the flattened odds and how they make it so that positioning is less significant, but it still matters. And we should probably be thinking about the tanking impact beyond this season as well.

Walker has a lot of value once we eventually make it to the other side of the tunnel, not sure a PHX 31 is worth it but we should be asking what that future value is for each of the players that are actually helping us win at the moment.

I like PHX 31 better than the "two firsts" asking price that's been out there. We know those two first are probably mid at best and we don't need any more crappy picks. I'd probably give up all of our remaining CLE picks for that PHX pick.

Nah... no way on the Cleveland thing. Even if Phoenix struggles there is infinity time for them to reload... especially if they don't have their picks they can go get FA and disgruntled mid tier stars. Its a really attractive FA market. There is also a time value of picks type of thing here. If I gave you a pick in the 10-20 range in 2025 is that worth a pick that has a 50% chance to be a top 10 pick in 7 years? Obviously it has trade value all the way through to 2031. I'm not saying it isn't but to say its worth more than 3 firsts is rich to me.

Its fairly black and white to me right now and I invented trading Walker for better draft positioning. If its the difference between 2nd and 4th well that sucks. I'm not sure it will be and he's the one young player that we have that projects to be a good starter, so if the tank starts to look shaky I will amend my position here. I wouldn't need a godfather offer but I wouldn't want any turds in the punchbowl... And Nurkic is a big turd. We have enough turds we are eating the next couple years and that is one turd too many for me to stomach. If he was an expiring deal or re-routed for an expiring deal I think I could give the thumbs up.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

OK, lets do some math. Lets make a rather rosy assumption that in 2031 the Suns are most likely to finish with the 5th worst record. The odds of them getting the top 3 pick is 31% and the relevant compilation of stats gives about the 53% chance that the drafted in the top 3 player will be an All Star later in their career. That means that you are ready to trade Kessler for the 16% chance (1 out of 7) that this pick years later (10-12 years from now?) may become an All Star.

Anyone thinking they can project with any accuracy how good a team will be in 2031 is high on their own supply. Phoenix would be a good bet to struggle in 2031 BUT if they decide to move on from the current core of KD and Booker they can get a haul. They are a FA destination. They would have time to dip and recycle what they have. I'd rather have a 2027/2028 Phoenix pick personally. Look at like the Cavs. 2017 they were ending the Lebron era. 2024 they are back as a top seed. 7 years is an eternity in the NBA.

 

[KqWIN]

Nah... no way on the Cleveland thing. Even if Phoenix struggles there is infinity time for them to reload... especially if they don't have their picks they can go get FA and disgruntled mid tier stars. Its a really attractive FA market. There is also a time value of picks type of thing here. If I gave you a pick in the 10-20 range in 2025 is that worth a pick that has a 50% chance to be a top 10 pick in 7 years? Obviously it has trade value all the way through to 2031. I'm not saying it isn't but to say its worth more than 3 firsts is rich to me.

Its fairly black and white to me right now and I invented trading Walker for better draft positioning. If its the difference between 2nd and 4th well that sucks. I'm not sure it will be and he's the one young player that we have that projects to be a good starter, so if the tank starts to look shaky I will amend my position here. I wouldn't need a godfather offer but I wouldn't want any turds in the punchbowl... And Nurkic is a big turd. We have enough turds we are eating the next couple years and that is one turd too many for me to stomach. If he was an expiring deal or re-routed for an expiring deal I think I could give the thumbs up.

Eh, objectively it's not a black and white question unless you think that trading Walker, Sexton, or anyone else that helps us win makes our chances of finishing above or below a certain team 100% or 0%. All I'm saying is that there's wiggle room in between and that is reality. Whether it's worth it or not can be a black can be a black and white answer but not what I'm talking about. You can have high confidence that Walker will deliver value on the other side of this tank, so IMO it's more of a pressing question on Sexton/Collins anyways.

I don't really care to discuss the value of 3 CLE firsts versus one PHX first, but I have extreme priority on more valuable picks. If given the choice between two CLE firsts, which technically meets the reported asking price, it's not even remotely close I'd have the PHX pick instead. Give me the the PHX 31 over CLE 27 + CLE 29 and that's an easy decision. Adding in CLE 25 doesn't really tip the scales that much to me.

We very much need quality over quantity. IF we decide to trade Kessler, I'd be extremely disappointed if we do it for a pile of stuff and/or crappy picks. If the messaging reflected what my feelings were, it's be "One very good pick" instead of "two first round picks". I'm not cheapening the price, just specifying the method of payment. As far as future picks goes, PHX 31 is one of the better one's out there.

 

[jazznik]

Anyone thinking they can project with any accuracy how good a team will be in 2031 is high on their own supply. Phoenix would be a good bet to struggle in 2031 BUT if they decide to move on from the current core of KD and Booker they can get a haul. They are a FA destination. They would have time to dip and recycle what they have. I'd rather have a 2027/2028 Phoenix pick personally. Look at like the Cavs. 2017 they were ending the Lebron era. 2024 they are back as a top seed. 7 years is an eternity in the NBA.

That's why I said that it was "a rather rosy assumption". I essentially modeled the realistic best case scenario for the Jazz. In reality the chances of that pick to bring in an All Star are probably well below 10%.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

That's why I said that it was "a rather rosy assumption". I essentially modeled the realistic best case scenario for the Jazz. In reality the chances of that pick to bring in an All Star are probably

well below 10%

Yeah. I wasn't disagreeing with you at all. Just kinda adding in that they could recycle in that period and end up okayish.