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2024-2025 Tank Race

The Midnight said:
I think your stats is forgetting 1 thing. We’re not just looking for 1 player. When you tank for 3-4 seasons hopefully we get at least 3-4 decent talent to build around.
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I think this is close to disingenuous or at least strongly misinformed.

The Jazz have never had problems getting "decent talent." What we have arguably lacked and what virtually all the pro-tankers have been droning on about for the last few years is a number #1 guy, an all-Pro, MVP candidate type. Someone better than Mitchell or Gobert.
 
Schrödinger's Gerbil said:
I'm curious: Can anyone guess the odds that a #1 draft pick will lead the team that drafted it to 1) an NBA championship or 2) an NBA final?

Answer: 1) Since 2000, 8.3%. 2) Since 2000, 20.8%. The only #1 picks to win an NBA championship with the team that drafted it since 2000 are LeBron James and Kyrie Irving. The only #1 picks to go to a finals with the team that drafted it since 2000 are James, Irving, Kenyon Martin, and DeAndre Ayton. (Percentage calculated by the number of #1 picks winning a championship or going to the finals with the team that drafted it divided by the number of #1 picks over the time period.)

The odds that draft picks 1-5 will lead the team that drafted it to an NBA championship or NBA final since 2000 are 5% and 10.8%. Besides Lebron, Kyrie, Martin, and Ayton, they include Durant (#2); Harden, Brown, Tatum, and Luka (#3); Westbrook and Tristan Thompson (#4, although Thompson was a role player at that point); and Wade (#5).

(Quick caveat: I did the calculations quickly, so I may be off a bit here or there, but it should not affect the general order of magnitude.)

Conclusion: By historical standards, the odds that Cooper Flagg or any other person drafted by the Jazz as part of their structural teardown tank will lead the Jazz to an NBA championship are remote. The odds that they lead the Jazz to the NBA finals are no better than 1 in 5.

Now, we come to the cost-benefit question. Are 5-6 years (likely duration) of sucking worth it for such paltry odds? For those who tout Wembenyama as a successful structural tank, keep in mind that 1) there's no guarantee the Spurs will win anything, and 2) the Spurs' average winning percentage for the last five years was 37%. Five years is not an unsubstantial amount of time for a fanbase to suffer through lousy basketball. Are Jazz fans prepared for the possibility of another 3-4 years, and possibly more, of sucking for the remote odds that hitting on a lottery pick will lead to a championship or even finals appearance?

Of course, this analysis omits any discussion of opportunity cost, i.e., what are the odds of success of alternative strategies? If we knew them, tanking might actually be the best strategy. Unfortunately, we can't answer this other than to say that no other team has won an NBA championship as the result of a structural tanking strategy. Every other team that's won an NBA championship has followed a different strategy to get there. Thus, the question: Why the irrational, exuberant confidence that the structural tanking strategy is the best (or even only) strategy to put the Jazz on the championship path?
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Flagg could be a Lebron-type player. You risk the negatives of the tank for that.
 
str8line said:
Flagg could be a Lebron-type player. You risk the negatives of the tank for that.
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He could be, but the odds weigh strongly against it. (I follow his career at Duke only sporadically and superficially. I used to be a huge college b-ball fan--go Tarheels--but now find college basketball boring and difficult to watch.)

I've been reading this board for many years. I vividly recall the discussion back in 2014, about how this was an incredibly strong draft class, and how Andrew Wiggins was a generational, transformative talent. And yet.... The only legitimate "superstars" from this draft were Embid and Jokic. The former was the prize of a years-long structural tank job that has produced nothing better than a second-round playoff exit. Lesson learned: Skepticism about the transformative potential of an individual prospect and even an entire draft class is warranted.

Even if he's all that, the odds weigh against us getting Flagg.

I hope I'm wrong. I'd love nothing better than the Jazz landing a true superstar facilitated by the strategic tank that takes us to the promised land. I'd gladly come back to this board and take the ridicule and mocking for my skepticism. Again, however, from where I sit, the odds weigh strongly against it.
 
Just look the last 4 min of Charlotte- Suns. Really nice tanking effort from hornets, they stay in front almost all games then suddenly, miss lay-up, getting in defense as slow as possible but not too obvious. This team know how to tank despite having much more talent than us.
 
Ok but what’s the % of a team NOT having a top 5 pick and reaching the Finals?
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Let's take a look.

In this list, I'm only looking at players that were actually important to their teams. Not counting ring-hunting vets on the bench or whatever. You can argue some of these picks if you want, but the only player that would change the final percentage is Bogut on the Warriors. I counted him in 2015, but not in 2016.

2000: Lakers had Shaq (1st). Pacers had no top 5 picks.
2001: Lakers had Shaq (1st). 76ers had Iverson (1st) and Mutumbo (4th)
2002: Lakers had Shaq (1st). Nets had Kidd (2nd), Keith Van Horn (2nd), and Kenyon Martin (1st)
2003: Spurs had Duncan (1st) and Robinson (1st). Nets had Kidd (2nd) and Kenyon Martin (1st)
2004: Pistons had Rasheed (4th) and Billups (3rd). Lakers had Shaq (1st)
2005: Spurs had Duncan (1st). Pistons had Rasheed (4th) and Billups (3rd).
2006: Heat had Shaq (1st) and Wade (5th). Mavericks had no top 5 picks.
2007: Spurs had Duncan (1st). Cavs had LeBron (1st).
2008: Celtics had KG (5th) and Allen (5th). Lakers had Odom (4th) and Pau Gasol (3rd).
2009: Lakers had Odom (4th) and Pau Gasol (3rd). Magic had Dwight (1st).
2010: Lakers had Odom (4th) and Pau Gasol (3rd). Celtics had KG (5th) and Allen (5th).
2011: Mavs had Chandler (2nd) and Kidd (2nd). Heat had Wade (5th), LeBron (1st), and Bosh (4th).
2012: Heat had Wade (5th), LeBron (1st), and Bosh (4th). Thunder had Durant (2nd), Harden (3rd), and Westbrook (4th).
2013: Heat had Wade (5th), LeBron (1st), and Bosh (4th). Spurs had Duncan (1st).
2014: Spurs had Duncan (1st). Heat had Wade (5th), LeBron (1st), and Bosh (4th).
2015: Warriors had Bogut (1st)--kind of a stretch on this one. Cavs had LeBron (1st), Irving, (1st) and Love (5th).
2016: Cavs had LeBron (1st), Irving, (1st) and Love (5th). Warriors had no top 5 picks--gonna stop counting Bogut for this one.
2017: Warriors had Durant (2nd). Cavs had LeBron (1st), Irving, (1st) and Love (5th).
2018: Warriors had Durant (2nd). Cavs had LeBron (1st) and Love (5th).
2019: Raptors had no top 5 picks. Warriors had Durant (2nd) and Cousins (5th).
2020: Lakers had LeBron (1st), and Davis (1st). Heat had no top 5 picks.
2021: Bucks had no top 5 picks. Suns had Chris Paul (4th) and Ayton (1st).
2022: Warriors had Wiggins (1st). Celtics had Brown (3rd), Horford (3rd), and Tatum (3rd).
2023: Nuggets had Gordon (4th). Heat had no top 5 picks.
2024: Celtics had Brown (3rd), Tatum (3rd), and Porzingis (4th). Mavs had Doncic (3rd) and Irving (1st).

So over 25 years, that's 7 teams out of 50 that had at least one top 5 pick, or 14%. Honestly, a lot of those teams had 1st overall picks.

Keep in mind that one thing this list can't account for is how teams might have leveraged top 5 picks to get other talent.
 
FrenchJazzFa said:
Just look the last 4 min of Charlotte- Suns. Really nice tanking effort from hornets, they stay in front almost all games then suddenly, miss lay-up, getting in defense as slow as possible but not too obvious. This team know how to tank despite having much more talent than us.
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Hardy should run mandatory tanking drills before each game. The last five to not make a shot should be the starting 5.
 
Jazz **** up the tank again. Can't wait to draft a fringe role player at 5 or 6.

Clown organization. This year (along with the last two) have been complete wastes. What is Ainge doing
 
l Abach l said:
Jazz **** up the tank again. Can't wait to draft a fringe role player at 5 or 6.
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Other teams seem to have no problem finding building blocks in the top 10.

l Abach l said:
What is Ainge doing
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Are you kidding me? They sat Lauri with a fake injury, "rested" Kessler (LOL), Collins has apparently dropped off the face of the earth and there's all kinds of G-League level players out there instead.

As has been said time and time again, the players are going to compete hard, they're fighting for their professional futures and have no incentive to tank. On the contrary.

WTF do people want.
 
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Strutter said:
Let's take a look.

In this list, I'm only looking at players that were actually important to their teams. Not counting ring-hunting vets on the bench or whatever. You can argue some of these picks if you want, but the only player that would change the final percentage is Bogut on the Warriors. I counted him in 2015, but not in 2016.

2000: Lakers had Shaq (1st). Pacers had no top 5 picks.
2001: Lakers had Shaq (1st). 76ers had Iverson (1st) and Mutumbo (4th)
2002: Lakers had Shaq (1st). Nets had Kidd (2nd), Keith Van Horn (2nd), and Kenyon Martin (1st)
2003: Spurs had Duncan (1st) and Robinson (1st). Nets had Kidd (2nd) and Kenyon Martin (1st)
2004: Pistons had Rasheed (4th) and Billups (3rd). Lakers had Shaq (1st)
2005: Spurs had Duncan (1st). Pistons had Rasheed (4th) and Billups (3rd).
2006: Heat had Shaq (1st) and Wade (5th). Mavericks had no top 5 picks.
2007: Spurs had Duncan (1st). Cavs had LeBron (1st).
2008: Celtics had KG (5th) and Allen (5th). Lakers had Odom (4th) and Pau Gasol (3rd).
2009: Lakers had Odom (4th) and Pau Gasol (3rd). Magic had Dwight (1st).
2010: Lakers had Odom (4th) and Pau Gasol (3rd). Celtics had KG (5th) and Allen (5th).
2011: Mavs had Chandler (2nd) and Kidd (2nd). Heat had Wade (5th), LeBron (1st), and Bosh (4th).
2012: Heat had Wade (5th), LeBron (1st), and Bosh (4th). Thunder had Durant (2nd), Harden (3rd), and Westbrook (4th).
2013: Heat had Wade (5th), LeBron (1st), and Bosh (4th). Spurs had Duncan (1st).
2014: Spurs had Duncan (1st). Heat had Wade (5th), LeBron (1st), and Bosh (4th).
2015: Warriors had Bogut (1st)--kind of a stretch on this one. Cavs had LeBron (1st), Irving, (1st) and Love (5th).
2016: Cavs had LeBron (1st), Irving, (1st) and Love (5th). Warriors had no top 5 picks--gonna stop counting Bogut for this one.
2017: Warriors had Durant (2nd). Cavs had LeBron (1st), Irving, (1st) and Love (5th).
2018: Warriors had Durant (2nd). Cavs had LeBron (1st) and Love (5th).
2019: Raptors had no top 5 picks. Warriors had Durant (2nd) and Cousins (5th).
2020: Lakers had LeBron (1st), and Davis (1st). Heat had no top 5 picks.
2021: Bucks had no top 5 picks. Suns had Chris Paul (4th) and Ayton (1st).
2022: Warriors had Wiggins (1st). Celtics had Brown (3rd), Horford (3rd), and Tatum (3rd).
2023: Nuggets had Gordon (4th). Heat had no top 5 picks.
2024: Celtics had Brown (3rd), Tatum (3rd), and Porzingis (4th). Mavs had Doncic (3rd) and Irving (1st).

So over 25 years, that's 7 teams out of 50 that had at least one top 5 pick, or 14%. Honestly, a lot of those teams had 1st overall picks.

Keep in mind that one thing this list can't account for is how teams might have leveraged top 5 picks to get other talent.
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So isn't this evidence for tanking?
 
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